固态电池和可控核聚变，其实都是能源方向的，主要是受技术突破的影响，一个是中国科研团队在固态 电池领域取得新的技术突破。第二个就是我国紧凑型聚变能实验装置best建设，现场传来好消息，就该 装置首个关键部位度把底座成功落安装，标志着这个项目进入新的阶段，那预计2030年可控核聚变开始 发电，其实这两个概念的话，今天领涨的主要是存储芯片，那主要是制售存储芯片涨价逻辑，另一方面 老美开始就是收紧半导体出口管制，那未来继续看好国产替代加速，那么接下来行情大概率是北美芯片 上涨会比不上国产替代的。所以我们接下来要注意去做好切换指数上今天是完成了对3900点的突破，那 么接下来一定是横有多长竖有多高，我们只要坚定看多耐心持仓，继续享受牛市就行了，那其实我也非 常希望我们能走从美股那种十几年的大牛市，让我每天都活在这种上涨的恐惧当中。 10月9日，和讯投顾吴青宇表示，早上主攻的方向主要有有色、黄金、固态电池、存储芯片和可控核聚 变，有色主要是铜价的上涨那受两方面的利好，一个是印尼国家的铜矿事故停产，导致整个铜的供应量 在两年内降低，那这里可以稍微展开一下，芯片制作其实也是需要用到铜的铜缆连接，可能在未来成为 主流的芯片传输 ...

以下文章来源于经济观察报 ，作者欧阳晓红 经济观察报 . 经济观察报是专注于财经新闻与经济分析的全国性综合财经类媒体，创办于2001年。聚焦商道、商技和 商机，以锐度、悦度、广度、深度的报道形成了权威的媒体公信力和影响力。 一场宏大浪潮激起的不同浪花。 美联储降息后，美元指数走弱，年内跌幅近10%，而人民币汇率稳中向好，年内涨幅为 2.46%；这可能是系统性变量的拐点。它意味着，世界在寻找美元之外的相关资产锚。 在此背景下，人民币的"三角功能"可能在跃迁：从"结算货币"渐趋进阶至"投资货币"， 并逐步试探"储备货币"的边界。 国 际 货 币 基 金 数 据 显 示 ， 2025 年 一 季 度 ， 人 民 币 全 球 外 储 占 比 2.12% （ 2463 亿 美 元），位列第六，低于美元（57.74%）、欧元（20.06%）、英镑（5.12%）、日元 （5.15%）和加元（2.63%）。 有分析认为，尽管中国金融市场持续开放，人民币国际化目前仍处于一个"螺旋上升"但 面临结构性挑战的阶段。例如，中国经济的全球影响力巨大，但人民币的国际地位与之 并不匹配。未来的推进策略是一项需要多管齐下、稳扎稳打的系统性工 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices closed lower on October 6, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.67%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.1%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.88% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks mostly declined, with major players like Li Auto down over 3%, and Alibaba Health, Alibaba, Haier Smart Home, and Bilibili all down over 2% [4][5]. - The gaming sector saw significant losses, with SJM Holdings down over 6% and MGM China down over 4% [6]. - The paper industry also faced declines, with companies like Hengan Group down over 5% and Nine Dragons Paper down over 3% [7]. - The tourism sector performed poorly, with Yinghai Group down over 11% and Ctrip down over 2% [8]. Gold and Precious Metals - Gold and precious metals stocks surged, with C Gold Mining up over 40% and Shenglong International up over 27% [9]. - Spot gold prices reached a new high of $3,940 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic concerns [9]. Cryptocurrency Sector - The cryptocurrency sector showed strong performance, with OSL Group up over 12% and Boya Interactive up over 7% [10][11]. - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $125,689, supported by inflows into risk assets amid the U.S. government shutdown [11]. Medical Equipment and Supplies - Medical equipment and supplies stocks saw notable gains, with Jin Hai Medical Technology and Bai Xin An-B both up over 9% [12][13]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor saw price increases, with SMIC reaching a new high of HKD 92.8 and Hua Hong up 4.57% [14][17]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target prices for SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor to HKD 117, citing opportunities in China's expanding AI ecosystem [21].

消息面上，上善黄金发布公告称，拟配售最多3782.54万股配售股份，占经悉数配发及发行配售股份扩 大后的已发行股份总数约7.03%。每股配售价格为6.53港元，较上一交易日收盘价8.150港元折让约 19.88%。配售所得款项净额估计约为2.458亿港元。 智通财经APP获悉，上善黄金(01939)盘中涨超18%，截至发稿，涨4.91%，报8.55港元，成交额6214.98 万港元。 公告称，公司拟将配售所得款项净额用于全球旗舰渠道网络拓展，包括在主要全球区域及市场设立50间 直营智能终端旗舰店；用于全渠道品牌发展，涉及构建B2C场景渗透与B2B生态赋能的双轨制。还将用 于技术升级、供应链保障体系建设、全球总部建设、全球管理团队组建及其他一般营运开支。 ...

假设全部3782.54万股配售股份均获成功配售，配售所得款项总额将约为2.47亿港元，而配售所得款项净 额估计约为2.458亿港元。公司拟将所得款项净额用于以下用途：(i)9800万港元用于全球渠道布局及品 牌体系建设;(ii)9800万港元用于技术升级及供应链保障体系建设;(iii)4980万港元用于全球总部建设、全 球管理团队组建及其他一般营运开支。 上善黄金(01939)发布公告，于2025年9月29日，公司拟配售最多3782.54万股配售股份，相当于经悉数配 发及发行配售股份扩大后的已发行股份总数约7.03%。每股配售股份6.53港元的配售价，较9月29日收市 价每股8.150港元折让约19.88%。 ...

港股金属有色行业：成长性与防御性兼具的优质赛道 20250924 摘要 预期降息增强，资金涌入具金融属性的有色金属，港股中小型有色金属 公司估值低、弹性高，配置价值凸显。 钴行业预计 2026 年后出现约 3 万吨短缺，钴价或持续上涨至接近 40 万元/吨。力群资源受益于印尼湿法冶炼产能，利润弹性大，预计 2026 年镍部分利润超 40 亿元。 黄金价格受降息周期和去美元化驱动，预计将向 4,000 美元/盎司迈进。 紫金黄金国际估值偏低，上市后有望炒至 3,000 亿港币以上。 铜矿供应紧张，多家公司下调产量预期，预计 2025 年至 2026 年上半 年为全球铜矿最紧张时期，铜价易创新高，明年上半年或达 12,000 美 元/吨以上。 钨矿供应受配额下降、超采减少和政策限制，需求端稳健，预计 2025 年至 2027 年供需缺口持续，支撑钨价高位运行。嘉欣国际受益于钨价 上涨，利润空间大，目前市值被低估。 Q&A 港股有色金属板块的投资价值如何？ 港股有色金属板块具有较高的投资价值，主要原因包括基本面的供需格局改善、 价格支撑以及相关行业净利润增长超预期。此外，内资和外资对该板块的关注 度持续提升，尤其是 ...

港股金属有色行业：成长性与防御性兼具的优质赛道 20250924 摘要 预期降息增强，资金涌入具金融属性的有色金属，港股中小型有色金属 公司估值低、弹性高，配置价值凸显。 钴行业预计 2026 年后出现约 3 万吨短缺，钴价或持续上涨至接近 40 万元/吨。力群资源受益于印尼湿法冶炼产能，利润弹性大，预计 2026 年镍部分利润超 40 亿元。 黄金价格受降息周期和去美元化驱动，预计将向 4,000 美元/盎司迈进。 紫金黄金国际估值偏低，上市后有望炒至 3,000 亿港币以上。 铜矿供应紧张，多家公司下调产量预期，预计 2025 年至 2026 年上半 年为全球铜矿最紧张时期，铜价易创新高，明年上半年或达 12,000 美 元/吨以上。 钨矿供应受配额下降、超采减少和政策限制，需求端稳健，预计 2025 年至 2027 年供需缺口持续，支撑钨价高位运行。嘉欣国际受益于钨价 上涨，利润空间大，目前市值被低估。 Q&A 港股有色金属板块的投资价值如何？ 港股有色金属板块具有较高的投资价值，主要原因包括基本面的供需格局改善、 价格支撑以及相关行业净利润增长超预期。此外，内资和外资对该板块的关注 度持续提升，尤其是 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut was supported by St. Louis Fed President Bullard for "preventive reasons" to avoid further deterioration in the labor market, but he noted limited room for future cuts given current rates are near neutral [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not support further rate cuts due to persistently high inflation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2] - The Fed faces a complex situation with signs of a cooling labor market and inflation not stabilizing at the 2% target, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Global central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are driving gold prices to record highs, with international gold prices reaching $3,728 per ounce, doubling since the end of 2022 [2][3] - Central banks have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022, with expectations of 900 tons in 2023, driven by "de-dollarization" efforts [3] - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with 397 tons in the first half of 2023, the highest since 2020, and total holdings reaching 3,615.9 tons by June [3] Group 3: Jewelry and Investment Demand Trends - Global demand for gold jewelry has declined significantly, with a projected 14% drop in Q2 2025 to 341 tons, marking the lowest level since the pandemic [3] - Despite the decline in jewelry demand, investment demand for physical gold remains strong, with a 10% increase in bar purchases expected in 2024, while coin purchases are down 31% [4] - Overall retail investment demand is projected to grow by 2% to 1,218 tons in 2025, particularly driven by strong purchasing power in Asian markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly discussing the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant attention on the upcoming monetary policy decision that could impact various asset classes and present investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - CICC believes there is a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts this month, with market expectations for a rate cut in September exceeding 90%, and probabilities for cuts in October and December also above 70% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The Federal Reserve's rate cut may help alleviate external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for a "moderately loose monetary policy" [4]. - A weaker dollar resulting from the rate cut could lead to a relative appreciation of the RMB, impacting export-oriented and overseas enterprises, while reducing repayment pressure for companies with dollar-denominated debt [4]. - The rate cut is expected to promote global capital reallocation, potentially benefiting Chinese assets as global liquidity is released [5]. Group 3: Stock Market Focus - CICC highlights several stock market sectors to watch, including foreign-invested heavy stocks, which may see marginal impacts from global capital reallocation due to the Fed's rate cut [6]. - Companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation, particularly those with significant dollar-denominated debt, are also of interest [7]. - Sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as finance and certain consumer goods, may present short-term opportunities if growth-stabilizing policies are intensified [8]. Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - CICC anticipates upward price movements for copper and aluminum, driven by macroeconomic shifts and strong domestic demand, with the Fed's rate cut potentially acting as a catalyst [10]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to remain robust, with no signs of a drastic decline in demand during the peak season [11]. - In the gold market, the Fed's rate cut expectations may provide short-term support, particularly if the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing [12][14]. - For oil, CICC has adjusted its global supply surplus expectations and maintains a price range forecast of $65-$70 per barrel for Brent crude, citing various market dynamics [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) trading strategy to the "Anything But The Dollar" (ABD) paradigm, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investment strategies [1]. Market Expectations - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut, which is perceived as credible amid a backdrop of accelerating U.S. economic growth [2]. - The current market reaction suggests a resurgence of risk parity strategies, breaking through highs for 2024 [2]. Asset Performance - Year-to-date, asset performance has shown significant divergence, with gold leading at a 38% increase, outperforming global equities (25%) and Bitcoin (23%) [4]. - In contrast, the dollar and oil have been the biggest losers, down 10% and 13% respectively, supporting the view of a weakening dollar [5]. Economic Growth and Market Trends - Hartnett predicts that U.S. nominal GDP growth, which surged by 54% since 2020, will peak in 2025, slowing from a 6% annual growth rate to 4% due to weakening government spending and labor market conditions [9]. - The peak in nominal growth typically signals a peak in bond yields, suggesting the end of a prolonged bear market in bonds by 2025 [13]. Investment Opportunities - The end of the ABB trading cycle is expected to benefit long-neglected, interest-sensitive assets such as small-cap and value stocks, which are currently at near-historic low rolling return rates compared to large-cap stocks [14][13]. - Hartnett emphasizes the importance of embracing the ABD theme, advocating for investments in non-dollar assets, particularly in international markets, as the dollar weakens and fiscal expansions occur in Europe and Japan [16]. AI Bubble and Credit Market Risks - While AI remains a bright spot in the market, there are risks associated with the rapid increase in capital expenditures for AI, which have surged from 35% to 72% of cash flow in 2023 [18]. - The technology sector's credit spreads are at their narrowest since 1997, indicating a lack of concern among credit investors regarding the risks associated with the AI sector's spending [20]. Policy, Profits, and Political Landscape - Hartnett uses the "PPP" framework to analyze the current situation, noting that the Fed's anticipated rate cuts are seen as preemptive, which has led to a narrowing of credit spreads and a rise in interest-sensitive stocks [24]. - The labor market is weak, with an average of only 64,000 new jobs added monthly over the past six months, but this is offset by a strong "K-shaped" wealth effect [25]. - Political risks are rising due to populism, high inflation, and significant wealth disparity, which may lead to policies reminiscent of the early 1970s aimed at reducing unemployment while controlling inflation [27][28].