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地缘政治变化
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中国期货每日简报-20250624
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 07:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures showed balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [2][4][11][13] - The top three gainers were logs, woodpulp, and LSFO, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), poly-silicon, and rapeseed [11][12][13] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the spot market of SCFIS(Europe) may be at the top range [16][25][30] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 23, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures had balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [11][13] - The top three gainers were logs (up 1.9% with a 0.8% MoM decrease in open interest), woodpulp (up 1.7% with a 9.0% MoM decrease in open interest), and LSFO (up 1.3% with a 17.6% MoM decrease in open interest) [11][13] - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.7% with a 2.4% MoM increase in open interest), poly-silicon (down 3.3% with a 38.4% MoM increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 2.9% with a 7.1% MoM decrease in open interest) [12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 23, coking coal increased by 1.3% to 807 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][18] - Supply continued to slightly decrease due to non - resumed and newly shut - down coal mines. Import volume remained low, and the price difference between Australian and domestic coal was still inverted [17][18] - Demand slightly decreased, but downstream and intermediate links' purchases relieved upstream inventory pressure [17][18] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On June 23, iron ore increased by 0.5% to 706 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile operation [23][25] - Short - term demand remained high and stable, while supply increased seasonally. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [23][25] - Overseas mines continued to rush for year - end and quarter - end targets, with shipments expected to be high before early July but with limited YoY growth [24][25] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On June 23, SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 4.7% to 1875 points. The spot market may be at the top range [28][30] - The US intervention in the Iran - Israel conflict may cause sentiment risks, but the impact on the Europe route of container shipping is limited [29][30] - The US route is still declining, and the Europe route faces a game between weak reality and supply - chain disruption risks [29][30] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 16th Summer Davos Forum from June 24th to 25th [3][33] - Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China from August 31st to September 3rd [33] 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC approved the registration of pure benzene futures and options on the DCE, which will enhance the risk - resistance capacity of China's chemical industry chain [34]
央行研究局局长王信:地缘政治变化和关税上升 可能使得各国货币政策分化明显
news flash· 2025-06-18 07:43
Core Viewpoint - The rising geopolitical changes and increasing tariffs may lead to significant differentiation in monetary policies across countries [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - There is a notable increase in uncertainty within the international economy, which is influenced by structural changes [1] - These uncertainties significantly impact central banks' concerns regarding price stability and financial stability [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Impacts - Geopolitical changes and rising tariffs are damaging international supply chains and value chains, leading to increased transaction costs [1] - The effects of these changes may differ between major importing and exporting countries, potentially exacerbating the differentiation in monetary policies [1]
法意领导人将会面,多年紧张关系有望缓解
news flash· 2025-06-03 05:19
金十数据6月3日讯,法国总统马克龙与意大利总理梅洛尼将于周二在罗马举行双边会晤,旨在修复两国 间的紧张关系。当前,欧洲正努力应对由特朗普政府引发的重大地缘政治变化。知情人士透露,此次会 谈被视为重置关系的重要契机,为本月晚些时候即将举行的北约和G7峰会奠定基础。知情人士还表 示,此次会晤可能会为巴黎与罗马之间的高层政府间峰会铺平道路,结束多年来两国领导人之间的公开 争执与紧张局势。梅洛尼上周对记者说:"领导人有时会激烈争论,但这并不影响国家间的关系。我很 高兴马克龙将访问罗马,这样我们就可以坐下来冷静地讨论所有这些问题。" 法意领导人将会面,多年紧张关系有望缓解 ...