China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress to Open on March 5 (CCTV). Prices: Equity index futures dropped; Commodities mixed, Precious Metals led the drops (3/4). Commentary: Silver, Poly-Silicon, Platinum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in ...

Core Viewpoint - Chevron's stock price reached a historical high on February 19, 2026, driven by multiple favorable factors including Berkshire Hathaway's increased stake, rising geopolitical risks pushing oil prices up, and the company's strong financial performance [1]. Stock Price Movement - On February 19, Chevron's stock peaked at $187.90, closing at $184.78, with a daily increase of 0.49% and a year-to-date rise of 22.43%. The broader oil and gas sector also saw a 0.55% increase, while peers like Occidental Petroleum experienced gains of up to 9.38%, indicating overall strength in the energy sector [2]. Future Development - Attention is required on oil price fluctuations, geopolitical changes, and the cyclical nature of the industry that may impact future performance [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23, equity index futures were mixed, CGB futures rose slightly, and most commodities rose with precious metals leading the gains [2][4][11]. - Platinum, silver, and lithium carbonate were the top three gainers in commodity futures, while crude oil, egg, and LSFO were the top three decliners [12][13][14]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On January 23, in equity index futures, IC rose 3.4% and IH dropped 0.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.04% [11][13]. - In commodity futures, platinum rose 10.4% with open interest decreasing 4.8% month - on - month; silver gained 8.5% with open interest increasing 2.8% month - on - month; lithium carbonate advanced 7.3% with open interest increasing 0.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - The top three decliners in commodity futures were crude oil (down 1.0% with open interest increasing 4.7% month - on - month), egg (down 0.6% with open interest decreasing 1.4% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 0.3% with open interest increasing 8.0% month - on - month) [13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) - **Platinum (铂)**: On January 23, it rose 10.4% to 685.90 yuan/g. With a sound supply - demand backdrop and improving macro expectations, it is expected to trend oscillatory and strong. South African floods may disrupt supply, and geopolitical tensions have eased. Future supply risks remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [18][20][21]. - **Silver (白银)**: On January 23, it rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kg. Silver prices have strong long - term bullish support. Trump's softened stance on Greenland weakens safe - haven demand, but industrial demand is expected to grow, and the market has a structural deficit. Short - term prices may be oscillatory and strong at high levels [25][26][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: On January 23, it rose 7.3% to 181,520 yuan/ton. Short - term supply and demand are in tight balance, and prices are expected to trade strong with fluctuations. January supply is expected to be robust, demand is solid, and inventories are decreasing [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - On January 23, President Xi Jinping held a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, stating that China will boost high - quality development through high - standard opening - up and promote China - Brazil cooperation [37][39]. - On January 22, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 and will keep social financing costs low [38][39].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the economic conflict initiated by the U.S. against eight countries, imposing a 10% tariff on their goods, which could escalate to 25% if they do not agree to the U.S. claim over Greenland by June 1 [1] - European ambassadors have been summoned for an emergency meeting in Brussels, with rumors that the European Parliament may delay the approval of a significant trade agreement with the U.S. as a response to the tariffs [3] - Canada has expressed strong support for Denmark regarding Greenland, indicating that the fate of Greenland is tied to Canada's security, suggesting potential implications for U.S.-Canada relations [4] Group 2 - Ukraine is concerned that the geopolitical changes stemming from the Greenland situation may weaken European support for Ukraine, as Europe might seek to align with Russia against the U.S. [6] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is marked by significant military developments, with Russian forces making advances in various regions, indicating a strategic push towards key locations [8][9][11][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 25th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodities advanced, with Poly-Silicon, Platinum, and Silver leading the gains, and Palladium, Nickel, and Tin leading the decliners [2][10][12]. - TikTok will establish a joint venture in the United States, and the Chinese government hopes enterprises reach a solution compliant with Chinese laws and regulations and balanced in interests [1][37]. - China firmly opposes the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged strong representations [38]. - China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding possible relaxation of restrictions on rare earth magnet exports to the US [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 25th, equity index futures rose (IC rose by 1.0%, IM rose by 1.2%), CGB futures declined (TL dropped by 0.2%), most commodities advanced. The top three gainers in commodity futures were Poly-Silicon (up 4.8% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), Platinum (up 4.5% with a 3.9% month-on-month rise in open interest), and Silver (up 2.6% with a 12.8% month-on-month decrease in open interest). The top three decliners were Palladium (down 7.7% with a 10.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), Nickel (down 1.2% with a 5.1% month-on-month decline in open interest), and Tin (down 1.2% with a 5.0% month-on-month reduction in open interest) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Platinum**: On December 25, it rose 4.5% to 686.95 yuan per gram. In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve's independence and liquidity easing provide upside momentum, supply disruption risks exist, and demand will expand steadily. A long-term bullish view is maintained. In the short term, it has entered a correction phase, with expected trading ranges of 1,800 - 2,400 USD per ounce for NYMEX platinum and 510 - 700 CNY per gram for GFEX platinum. Bull positions are recommended to gradually reduce holdings. Opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium are suggested when the platinum-palladium spread is low, and inter-market arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets should be monitored [17][18][19]. - **Silver**: On December 25, it rose 2.6% to 17,397 yuan per kilogram. It is in an accelerated rally, with a monthly gain of over 40% since late November and a 2025 gain nearing 150%. Short-term two-way volatility risks exist, and position risk management is needed. In 2026, the gold-silver bull market will continue, and silver's upside potential will be fully unlocked, with London spot silver targeting 50 - 100 USD/oz [26][27][28]. 3.1.3 Daily Dropped - **Palladium**: On December 25th, it fell 7.7% to 529.05 yuan per gram. In 2026, global palladium mine production and refined production are projected to rise by 0.3% and 2.1% respectively, while demand is expected to drop by 1.7%. A 16.9-tonne surplus in supply relative to demand is anticipated. It is in a long-term oversupply situation but has some downside support in the short term. NYMEX palladium is expected to fluctuate within 1,650 - 2,000 USD per ounce, and GFEX palladium between 460 - 600 CNY per gram. Previously, bull positions were advised to reduce holdings [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Chinese government hopes enterprises reach a solution compliant with Chinese laws and regulations and balanced in interests regarding TikTok's plan to establish a joint venture in the US [37]. - China firmly opposes the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged strong representations [38]. - China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding possible relaxation of restrictions on rare earth magnet exports to the US [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 9, stock index futures declined while treasury bond futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical commodities leading the declines [2][10][12] - Poly-silicon prices are set to fluctuate broadly due to marginal weakening in demand, contracting supply during the dry season, and lingering policy expectations [17] - The recent sharp drop in coking coal and coke futures is a result of concentrated pessimism and capital games. Market sentiment reversal will take time, but downstream winter stocking in mid-to-late December is expected to gradually improve fundamentals and sentiment [26][28] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 9, stock index futures declined while treasury bond futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical commodities leading the declines. Financial futures: IH fell by 0.9%, IC fell by 0.8%, TL rose by 0.4%. Commodity futures: The top three gainers were polysilicon, live hogs, and fiberboard; the top three decliners were industrial silicon, coke, and fuel oil [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Poly-Silicon**: On December 9, it rose by 3.5% to 55,610 yuan/ton. Guanghe Qiancheng was reported to be officially established with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, but industry insiders did not confirm its role. The GFEX added two new registered brands, which may increase registered warehouse receipts and cause a short - term pullback in nearby futures contract prices. Supply decreased in the dry season, and demand was weakened after over - drawing in the first half of the year. Prices are expected to fluctuate [16][17][18] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On December 9, coking coal fell by 2.2% to 1,082.5 yuan/ton, and coke dropped by 2.7% to 1,514 yuan/ton. The sharp drop was due to news - driven disturbances and capital behaviors dominated by market pessimism. Fundamentally, supply and demand changed little, but procurement weakened. Actual substantial supply growth will only be possible after 2027. Market sentiment may improve with downstream winter stocking [22][23][27] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On December 9, Premier Li Qiang held the "1 + 10" Dialogue with heads of major international economic organizations, expressing China's willingness to promote common development [33] 2.2 Industry News - On December 9, it was reported that the U.S. President Trump would approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said China advocates mutual benefit and win - win results through cooperation [34]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that macroeconomic factors and market trends have limited guidance for individual stock investments, except during critical turning points [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global geopolitical changes are identified as a key turning point, particularly benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hang Seng Index is expected to reach historical highs in the next three to five years, driven by the technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks are highlighted as a mature market with significant growth potential, featuring competitive high-tech and innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, SMIC, Xiaomi, and others [1] - The decline in interest rates in Hong Kong, following the U.S. dollar's rate cuts, is anticipated to attract international capital back to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The brokerage sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit directly from the rising stock indices, making brokerage stocks worth noting in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical products leading the decline [10][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate later, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate at a low level, and crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a weak bias [17][24][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity indices fell and CGB futures rose on September 4. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products leading the drop [10][12]. - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were rapeseed, iron ore, and egg; the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, LSFO, and fuel oil [10][11][12]. - In financial futures, IC declined by 2.4% and TL increased by 0.3% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On September 4, it rose 1.7% to 791.5 yuan/ton. Demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate later [15][17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On September 4, it rose 0.2% to 2519 yuan/ton. Protein meal may continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to international weather and domestic supply - demand changes [21][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, it decreased by 2.2% to 481 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks [28][30]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Leaders of China and the DPRK will hold talks to strengthen cooperation [35][36]. - The "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, with specific development targets set [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of July, the number of QFIIs reached 900, with 40 new ones added this year. The CSRC will introduce more reform measures to promote capital market opening [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodities showed mixed performance, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [2][9][10][11]. - The anti-involution policy has significantly boosted the price of poly-silicon, but there is still pressure on the actual supply and demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy [19][20]. - The price of silicon metal will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and if production resumption becomes concentrated, the price may come under pressure [23][26][27]. - A supply-demand gap in the domestic lithium carbonate market is gradually emerging, but the shortage is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation [31][32][33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodities, some rose while others fell, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [9][10][11]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 4.0% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), SCFIS(Europe) (up 3.6% with open interest up 3.6% month-on-month), and LSFO (up 2.5% with open interest up 11.8% month-on-month) [9][11]. - The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.3% with open interest up 2.6% month-on-month), ethylene glycol (down 2.2% with open interest up 6.5% month-on-month), and IM (down 1.8% with open interest up 6.9% month-on-month) [10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Poly-Silicon - On September 2, poly-silicon increased by 4.0% to 51875 yuan/ton. The anti-involution sentiment has heated up, leading to increased volatility in prices [15][20]. - On the macro front, six government departments held a joint symposium on the PV industry, and Reuters reported more information on the industry restructuring plan, boosting the anti-involution sentiment [16][20]. - On the supply side, the operating production capacity in Southwest China has improved with the arrival of the high-water season, and it is necessary to monitor the impact of the anti-involution policy on supply in the medium to long term [17][20]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of PV installed capacity from January to May increased significantly, but it has overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening subsequent demand [18][20]. 1.2.2 Silicon Metal - On September 2, silicon metal increased by 1.1% to 8470 yuan/ton. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of macro sentiment and coal prices [23][26][27]. - On the supply side, the overall supply pressure is likely to continue rising, mainly from the northwest region, while the southwest region has limited new supply in the follow-up [24][26][27]. - On the demand side, there are signs of a certain improvement month-on-month, driven by the resumption of production by poly-silicon enterprises and a slight increase in the operating rate of organic silicon [25][27]. - In terms of inventory, recent changes have been small, but social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate as output recovers [26][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On September 2, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.3% to 72620 yuan/ton. The first wave of sentiment impact caused by the production suspension at the Jianxiawo Mine has ended, and the market has returned to the stage of gaming over mine production suspensions [29][32]. - Fundamentally, a supply-demand gap is gradually emerging, but the data is more lackluster than expected. The weekly output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the monthly output in August exceeded expectations, indicating accelerated supply release [30][33]. - Demand continues to grow, and September is about to enter the peak season, with expected month-on-month growth. Social inventories have decreased slightly, but warehouse receipts have been gradually recovering since August [30][33]. - Overall, the supply-demand gap is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation and mainly adopt range-bound trading strategies [32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 2, President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh held the 7th China-Russia-Mongolia trilateral meeting of heads of state at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. President Xi put forward three proposals for advancing China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation [35][37]. - On the same morning, President Xi held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy trial for Russian citizens holding ordinary passports from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [37]. 2.2 Industry News - On September 1, the margin balance of A-shares reached 2.28 trillion yuan, hitting a record high in the history of A-shares [38]. - Starting from September 10, 2025, SHFE will further expand the range of tradable products available to Qualified Foreign Investors, including bitumen futures contracts and fuel oil, bitumen, and woodpulp option contracts [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - On August 26, equity indices fell, while CGB futures rose. Most commodity futures fell, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal leading the declines. The report also covered macro news and industry news, as well as provided analysis of specific futures varieties [2][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 26, equity indices declined, and CGB futures increased. Most commodity futures dropped, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal having the largest declines. The top three gainers were peanut kernel, log, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and silicon metal [10][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Lead**: On August 26, lead increased by 0.5% to 16,930 yuan/ton. Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole pressured the US dollar, creating a relatively positive macro environment. Lead ingot demand has picked up, and supply - demand is expected to be slightly short this week. However, the incomplete recovery of the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has pressured lead prices. The cost support for secondary lead remains high, and lead prices are fluctuating [16][18]. - **Natural Rubber**: On August 26, it rose by 0.3% to 15,885 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is decent, and fundamentals provide short - term support. The price is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short term. The Fed rate - cut expectation rose last Friday, and there are self - driven speculative expectations. It is entering the seasonal upward period, and there are many speculative themes. Short - term shipments may decrease, demand is rigid, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has picked up. The increase in supply may be delayed due to expected heavy rainfall in production areas [23][25][26]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Aluminium Oxide**: On August 26, it decreased by 3.5% to 3,069 yuan/ton. Prices may fluctuate with a bearish bias, and the main strategy is to roll short positions when prices rise unilaterally. Smelters are profitable, and their operating capacity has rebounded to a high level. The upstream - downstream balance shows a surplus, the inventory accumulation trend is expanding, and fundamentals are weak. Warehouse receipts and warehousing have increased significantly, but be wary of disruptions at Guinean mines and new production capacity control concerns [31][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Trump threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China over rare earth magnet supply. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified its position on the tariff issue multiple times. The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th CPPCC National Committee was held on August 26, with members speaking on "formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the proportion of installed renewable energy power generation capacity has increased from 40% to about 60% [39][40][41]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of 2024, China's outward investment stock exceeded 3 trillion USD, ranking among the world's top three for 8 consecutive years, and its proportion in global outward investment increased to 7.2%. Since 2012, China's outward investment flow has ranked among the world's top three for 13 consecutive years, and China has established over 50,000 enterprises overseas, covering 190 countries and regions [42].