Group 1 - The article emphasizes that macroeconomic factors and market trends have limited guidance for individual stock investments, except during critical turning points [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global geopolitical changes are identified as a key turning point, particularly benefiting the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hang Seng Index is expected to reach historical highs in the next three to five years, driven by the technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks are highlighted as a mature market with significant growth potential, featuring competitive high-tech and innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, SMIC, Xiaomi, and others [1] - The decline in interest rates in Hong Kong, following the U.S. dollar's rate cuts, is anticipated to attract international capital back to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The brokerage sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit directly from the rising stock indices, making brokerage stocks worth noting in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical products leading the decline [10][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate later, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate at a low level, and crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a weak bias [17][24][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity indices fell and CGB futures rose on September 4. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products leading the drop [10][12]. - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were rapeseed, iron ore, and egg; the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, LSFO, and fuel oil [10][11][12]. - In financial futures, IC declined by 2.4% and TL increased by 0.3% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On September 4, it rose 1.7% to 791.5 yuan/ton. Demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate later [15][17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On September 4, it rose 0.2% to 2519 yuan/ton. Protein meal may continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to international weather and domestic supply - demand changes [21][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, it decreased by 2.2% to 481 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks [28][30]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Leaders of China and the DPRK will hold talks to strengthen cooperation [35][36]. - The "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, with specific development targets set [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of July, the number of QFIIs reached 900, with 40 new ones added this year. The CSRC will introduce more reform measures to promote capital market opening [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodities showed mixed performance, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [2][9][10][11]. - The anti-involution policy has significantly boosted the price of poly-silicon, but there is still pressure on the actual supply and demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy [19][20]. - The price of silicon metal will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and if production resumption becomes concentrated, the price may come under pressure [23][26][27]. - A supply-demand gap in the domestic lithium carbonate market is gradually emerging, but the shortage is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation [31][32][33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodities, some rose while others fell, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [9][10][11]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 4.0% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), SCFIS(Europe) (up 3.6% with open interest up 3.6% month-on-month), and LSFO (up 2.5% with open interest up 11.8% month-on-month) [9][11]. - The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.3% with open interest up 2.6% month-on-month), ethylene glycol (down 2.2% with open interest up 6.5% month-on-month), and IM (down 1.8% with open interest up 6.9% month-on-month) [10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Poly-Silicon - On September 2, poly-silicon increased by 4.0% to 51875 yuan/ton. The anti-involution sentiment has heated up, leading to increased volatility in prices [15][20]. - On the macro front, six government departments held a joint symposium on the PV industry, and Reuters reported more information on the industry restructuring plan, boosting the anti-involution sentiment [16][20]. - On the supply side, the operating production capacity in Southwest China has improved with the arrival of the high-water season, and it is necessary to monitor the impact of the anti-involution policy on supply in the medium to long term [17][20]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of PV installed capacity from January to May increased significantly, but it has overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening subsequent demand [18][20]. 1.2.2 Silicon Metal - On September 2, silicon metal increased by 1.1% to 8470 yuan/ton. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of macro sentiment and coal prices [23][26][27]. - On the supply side, the overall supply pressure is likely to continue rising, mainly from the northwest region, while the southwest region has limited new supply in the follow-up [24][26][27]. - On the demand side, there are signs of a certain improvement month-on-month, driven by the resumption of production by poly-silicon enterprises and a slight increase in the operating rate of organic silicon [25][27]. - In terms of inventory, recent changes have been small, but social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate as output recovers [26][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On September 2, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.3% to 72620 yuan/ton. The first wave of sentiment impact caused by the production suspension at the Jianxiawo Mine has ended, and the market has returned to the stage of gaming over mine production suspensions [29][32]. - Fundamentally, a supply-demand gap is gradually emerging, but the data is more lackluster than expected. The weekly output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the monthly output in August exceeded expectations, indicating accelerated supply release [30][33]. - Demand continues to grow, and September is about to enter the peak season, with expected month-on-month growth. Social inventories have decreased slightly, but warehouse receipts have been gradually recovering since August [30][33]. - Overall, the supply-demand gap is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation and mainly adopt range-bound trading strategies [32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 2, President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh held the 7th China-Russia-Mongolia trilateral meeting of heads of state at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. President Xi put forward three proposals for advancing China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation [35][37]. - On the same morning, President Xi held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy trial for Russian citizens holding ordinary passports from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [37]. 2.2 Industry News - On September 1, the margin balance of A-shares reached 2.28 trillion yuan, hitting a record high in the history of A-shares [38]. - Starting from September 10, 2025, SHFE will further expand the range of tradable products available to Qualified Foreign Investors, including bitumen futures contracts and fuel oil, bitumen, and woodpulp option contracts [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - On August 26, equity indices fell, while CGB futures rose. Most commodity futures fell, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal leading the declines. The report also covered macro news and industry news, as well as provided analysis of specific futures varieties [2][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 26, equity indices declined, and CGB futures increased. Most commodity futures dropped, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal having the largest declines. The top three gainers were peanut kernel, log, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and silicon metal [10][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Lead**: On August 26, lead increased by 0.5% to 16,930 yuan/ton. Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole pressured the US dollar, creating a relatively positive macro environment. Lead ingot demand has picked up, and supply - demand is expected to be slightly short this week. However, the incomplete recovery of the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has pressured lead prices. The cost support for secondary lead remains high, and lead prices are fluctuating [16][18]. - **Natural Rubber**: On August 26, it rose by 0.3% to 15,885 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is decent, and fundamentals provide short - term support. The price is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short term. The Fed rate - cut expectation rose last Friday, and there are self - driven speculative expectations. It is entering the seasonal upward period, and there are many speculative themes. Short - term shipments may decrease, demand is rigid, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has picked up. The increase in supply may be delayed due to expected heavy rainfall in production areas [23][25][26]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Aluminium Oxide**: On August 26, it decreased by 3.5% to 3,069 yuan/ton. Prices may fluctuate with a bearish bias, and the main strategy is to roll short positions when prices rise unilaterally. Smelters are profitable, and their operating capacity has rebounded to a high level. The upstream - downstream balance shows a surplus, the inventory accumulation trend is expanding, and fundamentals are weak. Warehouse receipts and warehousing have increased significantly, but be wary of disruptions at Guinean mines and new production capacity control concerns [31][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Trump threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China over rare earth magnet supply. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified its position on the tariff issue multiple times. The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th CPPCC National Committee was held on August 26, with members speaking on "formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the proportion of installed renewable energy power generation capacity has increased from 40% to about 60% [39][40][41]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of 2024, China's outward investment stock exceeded 3 trillion USD, ranking among the world's top three for 8 consecutive years, and its proportion in global outward investment increased to 7.2%. Since 2012, China's outward investment flow has ranked among the world's top three for 13 consecutive years, and China has established over 50,000 enterprises overseas, covering 190 countries and regions [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures showed balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [2][4][11][13] - The top three gainers were logs, woodpulp, and LSFO, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), poly-silicon, and rapeseed [11][12][13] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the spot market of SCFIS(Europe) may be at the top range [16][25][30] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 23, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures had balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [11][13] - The top three gainers were logs (up 1.9% with a 0.8% MoM decrease in open interest), woodpulp (up 1.7% with a 9.0% MoM decrease in open interest), and LSFO (up 1.3% with a 17.6% MoM decrease in open interest) [11][13] - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.7% with a 2.4% MoM increase in open interest), poly-silicon (down 3.3% with a 38.4% MoM increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 2.9% with a 7.1% MoM decrease in open interest) [12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 23, coking coal increased by 1.3% to 807 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][18] - Supply continued to slightly decrease due to non - resumed and newly shut - down coal mines. Import volume remained low, and the price difference between Australian and domestic coal was still inverted [17][18] - Demand slightly decreased, but downstream and intermediate links' purchases relieved upstream inventory pressure [17][18] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On June 23, iron ore increased by 0.5% to 706 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile operation [23][25] - Short - term demand remained high and stable, while supply increased seasonally. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [23][25] - Overseas mines continued to rush for year - end and quarter - end targets, with shipments expected to be high before early July but with limited YoY growth [24][25] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On June 23, SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 4.7% to 1875 points. The spot market may be at the top range [28][30] - The US intervention in the Iran - Israel conflict may cause sentiment risks, but the impact on the Europe route of container shipping is limited [29][30] - The US route is still declining, and the Europe route faces a game between weak reality and supply - chain disruption risks [29][30] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 16th Summer Davos Forum from June 24th to 25th [3][33] - Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China from August 31st to September 3rd [33] 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC approved the registration of pure benzene futures and options on the DCE, which will enhance the risk - resistance capacity of China's chemical industry chain [34]

Core Viewpoint - The rising geopolitical changes and increasing tariffs may lead to significant differentiation in monetary policies across countries [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - There is a notable increase in uncertainty within the international economy, which is influenced by structural changes [1] - These uncertainties significantly impact central banks' concerns regarding price stability and financial stability [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Impacts - Geopolitical changes and rising tariffs are damaging international supply chains and value chains, leading to increased transaction costs [1] - The effects of these changes may differ between major importing and exporting countries, potentially exacerbating the differentiation in monetary policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between French President Macron and Italian Prime Minister Meloni is aimed at repairing the long-standing tensions between France and Italy, providing a significant opportunity to reset relations ahead of upcoming NATO and G7 summits [1] Group 1: Meeting Objectives - The bilateral meeting is seen as a crucial moment to address and potentially resolve the public disputes and tensions that have characterized the relationship between the two countries for years [1] - The discussions are expected to lay the groundwork for a high-level intergovernmental summit between Paris and Rome [1] Group 2: Context and Background - The meeting occurs against the backdrop of significant geopolitical changes initiated by the Trump administration, which have impacted Europe [1] - Meloni expressed optimism about the meeting, emphasizing that while leaders may have intense disagreements, it does not affect the overall relationship between the nations [1]