贝森特此次访问是其就任财政部长以来首次到访日本。日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽良圣会前向记者表 示，由于贸易并非此次访问的主要目的，双方并未深入讨论这一议题。不过，赤泽良圣表示会面气氛友 好，涉及多个话题。 据央视新闻报道，继本月7日率先向日本发出"关税通牒"后，美国总统特朗普此前又在美日贸易问题上 老调重弹——日本一直在占美国的便宜。此番言论发表于美国财政部长贝森特计划几天后访问日本之 际，被媒体解读为是在有意敲打石破茂政府。 贝森特方面言辞则更为积极。在东京与石破茂会面后，贝森特表示："良好的协议比匆忙的协议更重 要。美国和日本之间达成互利的贸易协议仍在可能的范围内。" 尽管双方释放积极信号，但距离8月1日美国对日本出口商品的全面关税从10%上调至25%仅剩两周时 间。谈判缺乏具体进展表明，两国在达成协议方面仍有相当距离，特别是针对汽车征收25%关税仍是主 要分歧点。 日本周日即将举行的参议院选举可能进一步复杂化谈判进程。民调显示石破茂领导的执政联盟可能失去 多数席位，这将削弱其在贸易谈判中的地位。 关税争议成为核心障碍 石破茂在会后告诉记者，两人没有讨论贸易具体细节，但希望美国国庆日活动能展现强劲的美日同盟关 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials believe that Trump's policies are dragging down the economy, increasing unemployment and inflation, and unresolved tariff disputes may lead to new shocks in the coming weeks [1] - The Fed has decided to delay planned interest rate cuts until the fall, awaiting resolution on tariffs and other government priorities, and now expects a slower pace of rate cuts with higher terminal rates [1][2] - The Fed's decision contrasts with other central banks that are continuing to cut rates, highlighting the impact of Trump's early policies, particularly tariffs, on the short-term outlook of the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 2 - Powell indicated that more information regarding tariffs will be available this summer, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% while predicting a significant rise in inflation by the end of the year [2] - Despite investor expectations for a rate cut in September, this largely depends on the progress of Powell's "watchful summer" regarding tariffs [3] - The Fed's recent policy statement noted that uncertainty in economic outlook has decreased since the May meeting, but the upcoming July 9 deadline for tariff agreements could quickly change the situation [3][4] Group 3 - The economic outlook has dimmed significantly compared to the Fed's previous expectations of a "soft landing," with GDP growth forecasts revised down from 2.1% to 1.4% and unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end [5][6] - Powell previously described the U.S. economy as performing "very well," but the current outlook is much less optimistic, with inflation expected to rise to 3% by year-end and remain above target levels until 2026 [6] - The Fed's decision-makers have indicated that if employment weakens, policy expectations may shift rapidly, as labor demand is softening and job creation is slowing [9]