Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state, the trading hot - spot of the year may have passed. The next month is likely to be a period of asset allocation re - balancing. Bonds have hedging and trading value, and in the equity market, both structural balance and absolute position control are important [3]. - The meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state achieved a win - win result. The tariffs of both sides are better than before September. The Chinese side obtained a 10% reduction in the so - called "fentanyl tariff" [3]. - In the capital market, both the Chinese and US equity markets reached new highs before the meeting. After the meeting, the stock markets have digested part of the "CO (Chickens Out)" in the "TACO" trading. Although the industrial trends of high - performance and high - risk - preference varieties are still solid, they face high institutional congestion and weakened external industrial catalysts [3]. - For stocks, when technology becomes less sensitive to good news due to previous rises, it is advisable to choose sectors weakly related to technology and relatively lagging in the past for hedging, such as finance, chemical industry in the pro - cyclical sector, and innovative drugs under the warming Sino - US narrative [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Tariff Transaction: Sino - US Win - Win but Market Priced in Advance - The meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state achieved a win - win result, and trade frictions were at least temporarily alleviated. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. China will adjust corresponding counter - measures [6]. - The US actual comprehensive tax rate on China this year is 20%, which is almost the same as that on some Asia - Pacific countries. This may invalidate the "substitution effect" of tariffs and refute the view that other economies will seize China's export share [7]. - The market has priced in the meeting in advance. Both Chinese and US stock indices reached new highs before the meeting (October 29) and then pulled back [7]. 2. Risk Assets May Have Been Priced in Advance, Cyclical Products Remain Weak - The anticipation of the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state and the various catalysts such as technology narratives and super - expected performances after the Fed's rate cuts in September are the reasons for the advance pricing of risk assets [9]. - The 10Y US Treasury yield has declined since September. The US stock market and the corresponding A - share technology sector have good performances, but these may have been reflected in the previous prices. During the super - week of macro and earnings reports, the participation of incremental funds in the technology leaders held by public funds is low. The SCI 50 index, which has a high proportion of technology leaders, fell by 3.2% this week while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% [9]. - From the perspective of commodities, cyclical products remain weak. Except for some leading "anti - involution" concept stocks like coking coal, other varieties have returned to the downward channel [10]. - From the perspective of growth, the demand side may still put pressure on the cyclical sector. The GDP growth rate weakened in the third quarter, and the manufacturing PMI in October continued to decline. The real estate and infrastructure sectors have not shown significant improvement expectations [13]. 3. Bond Market: How to Understand Low Cost - Effectiveness and FOMO? - The logic of going long in the bond market is mainly driven by chip trading. Insurance and banks have a demand for a good start in the fourth quarter, and the subsequent supply of bonds is small. As of October, 83% of government bonds have been issued [14][19]. - The duration of public bond funds decreased to the lowest point in the third quarter and has a demand for duration game in the fourth quarter. There is a certain space for narrowing spreads, such as the 30 - 10 spread and the secondary - tiered capital bond spread [19]. - The news about the redemption fee policy of public bond funds is mainly positive, which reduces the market's concern about redemptions at the end of the year. The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading stimulates the market sentiment. Although the point cost - effectiveness of bonds is not high, there is trading space for spreads [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump administration's exemption of refined copper tariffs eases the trading of potential import tariffs on platinum group metals in the US, leading to a short - term downward pressure on platinum and palladium prices. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see strategy [3][9] - NYMEX platinum and palladium prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with NYMEX platinum's price potentially testing the support level of $1,148.9 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's price likely to trade in the range of $1,193 - $1,373 per ounce [12][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's closing price of the active contract dropped 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's dropped 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce. The New York platinum futures premium also declined from a high of $57.1 per ounce on July 17 to $14.9 per ounce on August 1 [3][9] - **Volume and Open Interest**: NYMEX platinum's five - day average trading volume rose 44.23%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 10.46%. NYMEX palladium's five - day average trading volume rose 32.66%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 12.19% [9] - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: CME platinum inventory increased from 11.4 tons on July 18 to 16.8 tons on August 1, and CME palladium inventory increased from 1.49 tons to 2.4 tons. Platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.26% to 75.2 tons, and palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.00% to 13.22 tons [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's main contract price fell 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and its total open interest fell 2,523 lots to 88,000 lots. Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum price fell 8.05% to 309.9 yuan per gram [18][21] - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's main contract price fell 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce, and its total open interest decreased slightly by 402 lots to 20,400 lots [24] - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of July 29, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long positions decreased by 501 lots to 16,700 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short positions were 2,039 lots [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: CME platinum inventory increased 1.6 tons to 16.8 tons this week, and platinum ETF total holdings decreased to 75.2 tons [50][57] - **Palladium**: CME palladium inventory increased by 382.4 kilograms to 2,403 kilograms, and palladium ETF total holdings were 13.22 tons [53][62] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [68][71] - **Demand**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May, while palladium imports were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX platinum's 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [92][93] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX palladium's 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [99][101] - **London Market Spot - NYMEX Spread**: Data on the spreads between London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, and London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price are presented [106][107]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exclusion of refined copper from the U.S. tariff list led to a significant drop in COMEX prices, as hedge funds sold off their positions anticipating losses [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, but refined copper was not included, minimizing the impact on domestic importers and processors [3][4]. - The COMEX price for refined copper fell sharply, with the main contract dropping 20% to approximately $4.503 per pound (around $9,900 per ton), aligning more closely with LME prices [4]. - Hedge funds had previously increased their long positions, expecting further price increases, but were forced to sell off as the tariff announcement contradicted their expectations [4][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies and Trading Strategies - Prior to the tariff announcement, there was a price gap of about $2,600 per ton between U.S. and international prices, which was expected to widen with the new tariffs [5]. - Traders had been engaging in "tariff trading," importing refined copper from countries like South Korea and Taiwan to sell at higher prices in the U.S., but the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs undermined this strategy [5]. - The increase in U.S. copper inventories has led to a situation where domestic prices are now lower than LME prices, reflecting the market's adjustment to the new tariff landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global copper market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with a reported excess of 272,000 tons from January to May [6]. - Concerns about China's economic outlook, as the largest consumer of copper, are contributing to downward pressure on demand [6].