1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump administration's exemption of refined copper tariffs eases the trading of potential import tariffs on platinum group metals in the US, leading to a short - term downward pressure on platinum and palladium prices. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see strategy [3][9] - NYMEX platinum and palladium prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with NYMEX platinum's price potentially testing the support level of $1,148.9 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's price likely to trade in the range of $1,193 - $1,373 per ounce [12][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's closing price of the active contract dropped 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's dropped 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce. The New York platinum futures premium also declined from a high of $57.1 per ounce on July 17 to $14.9 per ounce on August 1 [3][9] - **Volume and Open Interest**: NYMEX platinum's five - day average trading volume rose 44.23%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 10.46%. NYMEX palladium's five - day average trading volume rose 32.66%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 12.19% [9] - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: CME platinum inventory increased from 11.4 tons on July 18 to 16.8 tons on August 1, and CME palladium inventory increased from 1.49 tons to 2.4 tons. Platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.26% to 75.2 tons, and palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.00% to 13.22 tons [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's main contract price fell 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and its total open interest fell 2,523 lots to 88,000 lots. Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum price fell 8.05% to 309.9 yuan per gram [18][21] - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's main contract price fell 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce, and its total open interest decreased slightly by 402 lots to 20,400 lots [24] - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of July 29, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long positions decreased by 501 lots to 16,700 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short positions were 2,039 lots [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: CME platinum inventory increased 1.6 tons to 16.8 tons this week, and platinum ETF total holdings decreased to 75.2 tons [50][57] - **Palladium**: CME palladium inventory increased by 382.4 kilograms to 2,403 kilograms, and palladium ETF total holdings were 13.22 tons [53][62] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [68][71] - **Demand**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May, while palladium imports were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX platinum's 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [92][93] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX palladium's 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [99][101] - **London Market Spot - NYMEX Spread**: Data on the spreads between London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, and London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price are presented [106][107]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exclusion of refined copper from the U.S. tariff list led to a significant drop in COMEX prices, as hedge funds sold off their positions anticipating losses [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, but refined copper was not included, minimizing the impact on domestic importers and processors [3][4]. - The COMEX price for refined copper fell sharply, with the main contract dropping 20% to approximately $4.503 per pound (around $9,900 per ton), aligning more closely with LME prices [4]. - Hedge funds had previously increased their long positions, expecting further price increases, but were forced to sell off as the tariff announcement contradicted their expectations [4][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies and Trading Strategies - Prior to the tariff announcement, there was a price gap of about $2,600 per ton between U.S. and international prices, which was expected to widen with the new tariffs [5]. - Traders had been engaging in "tariff trading," importing refined copper from countries like South Korea and Taiwan to sell at higher prices in the U.S., but the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs undermined this strategy [5]. - The increase in U.S. copper inventories has led to a situation where domestic prices are now lower than LME prices, reflecting the market's adjustment to the new tariff landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global copper market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with a reported excess of 272,000 tons from January to May [6]. - Concerns about China's economic outlook, as the largest consumer of copper, are contributing to downward pressure on demand [6].