关税和贸易不确定性

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穆迪:关税和贸易不确定性增加了亚太地区的信用风险
news flash· 2025-07-03 08:20
Core Viewpoint - Moody's has downgraded the sovereign credit outlook for the Asia-Pacific region from stable to negative due to increased tariffs and global trade uncertainties [1] Group 1: Credit Risk Implications - Tariffs have introduced long-term credit risks for some Asia-Pacific economies, diminishing their attractiveness and suppressing foreign investment [1] - Increased fiscal spending may be necessary to stimulate economic growth, potentially slowing or halting fiscal consolidation efforts [1] Group 2: Revenue and Deficit Concerns - Revenue declines, particularly for trade-intensive countries, will further limit fiscal flexibility, while expanding deficits will increase borrowing demands [1] - If trade negotiations significantly reduce tariffs, Moody's may revert the outlook back to stable [1] Group 3: Future Scenarios - Escalation of tariffs, significant widening of spreads, or prolonged geopolitical conflicts will worsen the situation [1]
英国央行谨慎暗示进一步降息 市场调整定价
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 14:50
英国的通胀回落仍在持续,过去一年的总体通胀率一直在2%的目标水平附近,尽管略高于平均水平。 贝利预计,通胀不会持续飙升,通胀压力将逐步缓解。 新华财经北京5月8日电(王姝睿) 英国央行日内降息25个基点,将基准利率从4.5%下调至4.25%,维持 关于利率指引的措辞不变,称逐步和审慎的方式仍然是适当的。 通过对通胀预期的下调和对不确定性的警告,英国央行谨慎地暗示,未来几个月可能会进一步降息。 谨慎降息 英国央行行长贝利表示,通胀压力正在缓解,因此得以降息。英国央行预计,通胀将在2025年第三季度 达到3.5%的峰值,此前预期为3.7%;2027年第一季度通胀率将回到2%的目标水平。 决议公布后,英镑兑美元短线上扬,交易员下调英国央行降息押注,预计6月降息概率为20%。货币市 场预计到年底英国央行还将降息59个基点。 摩根士丹利预计,英国央行到年底利率将降至3.25%。 同时,关税和贸易不确定性对经济活动造成了压力,英国央行货币政策委员会对双向风险保持警惕。英 国央行表示,贸易关税的上调意味着全球增长前景已减弱,但对英国经济增长和通胀的拖累可能会较 小。英国央行货币政策委员会考虑了国内通胀压力可能演变的多种情景 ...
英国央行行长贝利:关税和贸易不确定性对经济活动构成压力。对英国通胀的总体影响不明朗。预计全球贸易价格将大幅走弱。尚未听到有关美国贸易协议的通报。欢迎贸易协议,这将降低不确定性。
news flash· 2025-05-08 11:42
Group 1 - The Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that tariffs and trade uncertainties are putting pressure on economic activity [1] - The overall impact on UK inflation remains unclear [1] - A significant decline in global trade prices is expected [1] Group 2 - There has been no communication regarding a trade agreement with the United States [1] - Trade agreements are welcomed as they would reduce uncertainty [1]