Report Summary - The overall trend of crude oil prices this week was a one - way downward movement. The market is worried about the US economic recession due to the lower - than - expected July non - farm employment data and the significant downward revision of May and June data. The demand - side support is gradually fading. The possible meeting between the US and Russian presidents eases the concern about Russian sanctions, and the previous premium has declined. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, intensifying the supply pressure. It is expected that the oil price will continue to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][54]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of $60 - 66 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices [9]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks [12] - The actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [12] Bearish Factors - The weakening of demand - side support [12] - The easing of US - Russia relations [12] Macro Analysis US - Russia Relations - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, shortening the original 50 - day deadline to 10 days. The US Middle East envoy had a constructive meeting with Putin in Moscow. Trump plans to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit soon, and preparations for the "Putin - Trump meeting" are underway. The initial threat of sanctions supported the oil price, but the subsequent push for high - level meetings eased market tension, and the risk premium declined [13]. US Non - farm Data - In July, the US non - farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from 45% to 75%. This situation has led to concerns about the weakening of the US economy and put pressure on oil prices [16]. US Tariffs on India - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods because India imports Russian oil. India said it would continue to buy Russian oil. This move will have a limited impact on global crude oil supply [17]. OPEC+ Production Adjustment - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The market has fully priced in this increase. The key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has nearly 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored [21]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the production is still lower than the increase plan [22]. - As of the week ending August 1, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24]. - As of the week ending August 1, the total number of US oil rigs was 410, a decrease of 5 from the previous period. It is expected to continue to decline due to low oil prices [26]. Demand - As of the week ending August 1, US crude oil implied demand increased by 1.329 million barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 54,000 barrels per day. The overall demand is around the average in recent years [30]. - As of the week ending August 1, the US refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. It is at a high level in recent years, and there is limited room for further improvement [32]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 82.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 56.19%, down 0.66 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - increasing cycle in early September [37]. - As of August 8, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 938.85 yuan per ton, down 38.11 yuan per ton from the previous period. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 230.95 yuan per ton, down 5.78 yuan per ton. Major refineries' profits have recovered to a high level in recent years, while local refineries' profits remain low [41]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 235,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories are expected to remain low [46]. - As of the week ending August 1, the crude oil inventory in Cushing increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased. Gasoline inventory is expected to enter a downward cycle [50]. Crack Spread - As of August 6, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.14 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [51]. Market Outlook - In the short term, after the bullish factors of sanctions fade, the market will return to fundamental trading. With the weakening of demand - side support and the increase in OPEC+ production, the oil price may decline further. The cost of shale oil will support the price, and the oil price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI at $60 per barrel [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.36% to 781.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.3% to 9039 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The significantly lower-than-expected non - farm payrolls in the US in July, along with the revised reduction of 258,000 jobs in May and June, highlight the sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market. Coupled with the July ISM manufacturing PMI being lower than expected and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, it triggers new concerns about a US economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The market currently expects an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which drives the strong rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries and the poor US economic data boost market risk - aversion demand, supporting precious metal prices. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the strong performance of gold prices. Silver generally follows gold but may perform weaker under the new economic recession concerns [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3360.20 per ounce, London silver spot at $37.22 per ounce, COMEX gold at $3413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $37.26 per ounce. Compared with August 1, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 1.6% respectively. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 1.3% to 1.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: As of August 4, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price was - 4.32 yuan/gram, and the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price was - 31 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 1, 2025, the spreads had different degrees of change, with increases of 12.5% and 24.0% respectively [3]. Position Data - As of August 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 953.08 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15056.66493 tons. Compared with July 31, 2025, they decreased by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of decline [3]. Inventory Data - On August 4, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 35889.00 kilograms, an increase of 0.40% compared with August 1, 2025. The SHFE silver inventory was 1174273.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.82% compared with August 1, 2025. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also showed slight increases [3]. Other Market Data - As of August 4, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.69%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the US dollar index was 98.69, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.14. Compared with August 1, 2025, they had different degrees of change, with the US dollar index decreasing by 0.14%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreasing by 3.20%, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield increasing by 21.89% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil price dropped last Friday due to the disappointing US non - farm payroll data and OPEC+ production increase. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year as refineries reach peak operation and new supplies enter the market, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1]. - PX supply is expected to increase as Chinese PX plants resume operations and MX production ramps up. The market balance shifts from de - stocking to equilibrium, but PX remains in low inventory. PXN has support on the downside, but the floating price has weakened [1]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Although short - term supply - demand improves due to maintenance, major suppliers' active selling suppresses prices. The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but terminal demand has not improved significantly [2]. - PF is affected by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness and near - month contracts pressured by the forced warehouse receipt cancellation logic [3]. - PR load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range after repair [3]. - The strategy suggests a cautious and bearish view on PX/PTA/PF/PR, and provides cross - variety and cross - period trading strategies [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory I. Price and Basis - Includes TA and PX main contract price, basis, and cross - period spread trends, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Covers PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Consists of toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Involves the operating rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Contains PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes long - filament and short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, long - filament factory inventory days, and operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [47][49][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, and related operating rates and profits [69][75][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and various spreads and profits [90][92][100]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the significant decline in U.S. non-farm payroll data for July, which fell to 73,000 jobs, far below the expected 104,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [1][2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakening, with government sector employment decreasing, while healthcare and social assistance sectors are providing some support [1] - The market is reacting to the weak employment data by increasing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September [2] Group 2 - The expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, which is anticipated to see a significant influx of both domestic and foreign capital [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently viewed as undervalued and is sensitive to changes in U.S.-China interest rate differentials, making it poised to benefit from a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider using the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform - Maintained" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US non - farm data is weak, and the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has increased. The Fed's internal disagreement on interest rate cuts has intensified, and the US economic outlook is not optimistic due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand, low corporate investment willingness, and trade policy uncertainties [1][2] - In the context of increasing divergence in Fed policies, differentiated economic data, and falling interest rates, the short - term risk - aversion sentiment in the US bond market has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain medium - and short - duration US dollar bonds as the core allocation [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [14][22][24] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The US GDP grew by 3% year - on - year in Q2, but there are hidden dangers. Private consumption growth was only 0.98%, corporate investment showed negative growth, net exports were mainly due to reduced imports, government contribution was almost zero, and inflation pressure persisted [2] - The July non - farm employment data was far lower than expected, with new employment dropping to 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the previous values were significantly revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year hourly wage increase rose to 3.9% [3] Exchange Rates - The report shows figures on the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost change of the US dollar against the RMB [60][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - Figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, US - EU comprehensive US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and the price trends of global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, as well as the two - week return comparison of the global bond market [67][71][73] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [90][84][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 downgrades, 3 rating revocations, and 3 initial ratings [93]

Market Overview - On August 1, U.S. stock markets closed down significantly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and disappointing July employment data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 542.4 points (1.23%) [1] - The S&P 500 index recorded its largest single-day drop since May, down 1.60%, while the Nasdaq index fell 2.24%, marking its largest decline since April [1] - The total market capitalization of U.S. stocks evaporated by over $1 trillion [1] Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [8] - Revisions to previous months' data showed a drastic downward adjustment, with May's non-farm payrolls revised from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [8] - Experts indicate that uncertainty from tariff policies is leading to increased caution among U.S. businesses, contributing to a rapid deterioration in the labor market [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from 37.7% to 75.5% following the employment data release [2] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, spiked above 29, indicating heightened market anxiety [2] - Economists warn that the combination of chaotic tariff policies, immigration restrictions, and federal layoffs could further suppress U.S. economic growth, with signs pointing to a rapid slowdown in the labor market [9] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Amazon dropping over 8%, Meta down over 3%, and other tech giants like Apple and Nvidia falling more than 2% [4] - Cryptocurrency and computer hardware sectors also saw significant losses, with Coinbase plummeting over 16% [4] - Conversely, sectors such as weight loss drugs and precious metals performed well, with gold resources rising nearly 17% [4] Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, allowing President Trump to make new appointments to the Fed board ahead of schedule [12][14] - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not cutting rates and suggested that the Fed board should take control if Powell continues to resist [11][14]

Group 1 - The article criticizes the erratic trade policies under Trump's administration, highlighting the imposition of tariffs on over 180 countries, which has led to significant economic repercussions for the U.S. [2] - Trump's contradictory statements regarding tariffs, such as claiming to earn $2 billion daily from tariffs while acknowledging that high tariffs deter consumer purchases, illustrate the confusion and instability in U.S. trade policy [2] - The article points out that the chaotic trade policies have resulted in a loss of international credibility for the U.S., raising doubts about the predictability of American policies [2] Group 2 - In the realm of diplomacy, Trump's claims of mediating between India and Pakistan were refuted by India, leading to increased tensions and skepticism about U.S. diplomatic integrity [3] - Trump's handling of the Middle East, particularly his comments on Gaza, has been criticized for lacking responsibility and contributing to the deterioration of U.S. credibility in the region [3] - The article emphasizes that Trump's inconsistent diplomatic approach has exacerbated tensions in the Middle East and diminished trust in U.S. foreign policy [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the internal divisions within the U.S. due to Trump's policies, with various groups such as small businesses and farmers expressing dissatisfaction and conflict arising from conflicting interests [4] - It highlights the lack of coherence within the U.S. government, as evidenced by conflicting statements regarding Trump's proposals, which have led to confusion and disarray [4] - The internal discord is portrayed as a significant issue that undermines effective governance and policy implementation [4] Group 4 - The article describes Trump's use of bullying tactics in foreign relations, particularly against Iran and Egypt, which have resulted in increased international isolation for the U.S. [5] - It notes that the aggressive approach has prompted backlash from other nations, including the EU and allies like Canada and Australia, who have expressed their opposition [5] - The overall narrative suggests that Trump's actions are leading the U.S. towards chaos and decline, reminiscent of the turmoil seen in declining empires [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the weakening of the US dollar, attributed to the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration and growing concerns over the US fiscal situation, leading to a crisis of market confidence [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index is expected to decline by 0.4% in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of losses [1][10]. - The volatility of the dollar is linked to the inconsistent trade policies, which have caused investors to seek alternatives to US assets [2][5]. Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Recent court rulings have created a confusing environment for investors, with a trade court blocking tariffs just as an appeals court reinstated them, indicating ongoing uncertainty [3][4][6]. - The unpredictable nature of these policies is likened to a "ticking time bomb," fostering a cautious market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Recession Concerns - Recent economic data, including a rise in initial jobless claims to 240,000, has heightened fears of a recession, as the first quarter GDP contracted by 0.2% [7]. - The weak demand for long-term bonds from developed economies like the US and Japan reflects broader concerns about fiscal debt levels [8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - In contrast to the weakening dollar, emerging market currencies have shown strength, with an index tracking these currencies rising by 2.2%, the largest monthly gain since November 2023 [9][11].