8月能繁母猪存栏环比-0.1%，9月猪价新低 猪价自24.1.17低点震荡回升，8月中旬达年内高点21.06元/kg，此后震荡回落;25年9月17日猪价13.71 元/kg，较24年年末下跌16%。9月26日自繁自养、外购仔猪养殖利润-74元/头、-237元/头;行业整体亏损 或可带来产能去化。8月末我国能繁母猪存栏量4038万头，环比-0.1%。关于25年猪价走势，该行认为年 度均价同比下行，差异在于优秀猪企完全成本持续优化，带来养殖利润超预期。此外25年以来猪企产能 变化节奏、行业二育情况、出栏体重等方面或受相关影响而带来超预期变化，值得重点关注。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，持续重点强调关注生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会， 基于能繁母猪作用值及养殖效率的考虑，25年猪价同比或呈下行走势;综合考虑政策去产能以及行业亏 损去产能，叠加成本下行带来的优秀猪企利润超预期，重点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质 猪企。宠物食品行业处成长过程中，优质企业市占率呈提升趋势。该行建议可关注养殖链后周期，推荐 饲料龙头及动物疫苗相关企业。黄鸡价格与猪价有一定相关性，且考虑自身供给端低位，后续价格存上 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the pig farming industry, highlighting opportunities for both offensive and defensive strategies. It suggests that pig prices may trend downward year-on-year by 2025, while remaining relatively stable within the year, alongside a decrease in costs leading to profits exceeding expectations. The focus should be on high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs and good financial conditions [1] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with leading companies increasing their market share [1] - Attention is recommended for the post-cycle of the breeding chain, specifically suggesting the feed leader Haida Group and companies related to animal vaccines [1] - There is a correlation between yellow chicken prices and pig prices, with the potential for price increases in the future due to low supply levels [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of focusing on the pig farming industry, highlighting both offensive and defensive investment opportunities due to the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency. It is anticipated that pig prices may show a downward trend in 2025, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year, coupled with cost reductions leading to profits exceeding expectations. Attention should be given to high-quality pig companies with significant marginal cost changes and good financial conditions [1][4] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with an increasing market share for quality enterprises [1][4] - There is a correlation between yellow chicken prices and pig prices, and considering the low supply side, there is potential for price increases in the future [1][4] Group 2 - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year, with a 19% decrease in agricultural trade deficit. The CPI for June was +0.1% year-on-year, with food items down by 0.3%, and pork prices down by 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The agricultural index outperformed the CSI 300 from early July to July 22, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising by 7.35%, while the CSI 300 increased by 4.65%. The livestock sector saw a notable increase of 11.2% [2] - In July, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs improved month-on-month, with the price of pigs reaching a peak of 21.06 yuan/kg in mid-August before fluctuating downwards. As of July 16, 2025, the price was 14.96 yuan/kg, down 8% from the end of 2024 [3] - The export volume and price of pet food fell in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.22% in export value. However, the cumulative export value for the first half of 2025 showed a slight increase of 0.4% [3]