2025年终盘点 养老政策五大趋势 洞见未来十年"享老"新格局 前言 站在2025年末回望，中国养老服务体系建设走过关键十年。从顶层设计到地方实践，养老政策正以前所未有的系统性、精准性和前瞻性，悄然重塑着我们每 个人的晚年生活图景。透过五大清晰趋势，我们不仅能看清政策走向，更能把握未来十年"老有所养、老有所享"的深层逻辑。 01 政策不再只是鼓励"多存钱"，而是引导建立全生命周期资金规划理念。在确保安全的前提下，赋予个人更多支配权，让养老储备既能应对长远需求，也能兼 顾人生突发事件，真正实现"钱为人服务"。单纯的储蓄思维已过时。个人需建立"养老金三支柱"组合思维，在社保基础上，科学配置个人养老金、商业保 险、稳健理财，并学会在政策框架内灵活调度，让养老资金"活"起来。 02 趋势二：服务获取更可及 从"有服务"到"选服务" 全国性失能老人照护补贴试点全面铺开，补贴资金直接发放至符合条件的老年人或其家庭。这标志着中国养老服务补贴机制实现历史性转变——从"补供 方"（机构）转向"补需方"。 趋势一：资金储备更灵活 从"存钱养老"到"智慧用钱" 个人养老金账户可"应急领取"，养老理财试点扩至全国，商业养老保险产品创 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of China's three-pillar pension system is approximately 15.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 11% of China's GDP in 2024. The first pillar (basic pension surplus) is about 8.7 trillion yuan, the second pillar (enterprise annuities and occupational annuities) totals 6.8 trillion yuan, and the third pillar (personal pensions) is estimated at around 0.2 trillion yuan based on projections from the 2025 "China Pension Finance White Paper" [1][16][49] - In contrast, the total scale of the U.S. three-pillar pension system is approximately 46.7 trillion USD, which is 1.6 times the U.S. GDP. The first pillar (OASDI) is about 2.7 trillion USD, the second pillar (DB+DC) is approximately 24.5 trillion USD, and the third pillar (IRAs) is around 19.5 trillion USD [3][18] - In 2024, China's basic pension income is projected to be 8.2 trillion yuan (approximately 1.14 trillion USD), while the U.S. OASDI income is estimated at 1.42 trillion USD [19][24] Group 2 - The main differences between the basic pension systems of China and the U.S. are reflected in four aspects: the benefit determination mechanism, replacement rates, contribution rates, and fiscal burdens [4][6][26] - The benefit determination mechanism in the U.S. emphasizes "fairness" and income redistribution, while China's system balances "efficiency" and "fairness," incorporating both redistributive considerations and incentives for longer contributions [4][6] - The overall replacement rate in the U.S. is 81%, with the basic pension replacement rate at around 39% and private pension replacement rate at approximately 42%. In China, the basic pension replacement rate is about 38%, with enterprise annuity replacement rates varying between 10% and 25% depending on various factors [5][6][41] Group 3 - The contribution rates differ significantly, with the U.S. having a fixed rate of 6.2% for both employers and employees, while China's rates are 16% for employers and 8% for employees [6][41] - The fiscal burden of the pension systems also varies, with the U.S. OASDI relying minimally on federal subsidies (only 0.5%), while China's basic pension system faces substantial fiscal pressure, with government subsidies exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 15% of total income [26][47] - China's second pillar appears to have a high balance but is limited to a small number of enterprises capable of contributing due to the high burden of the first pillar, resulting in a low participation rate in the second pillar [47][48] Group 4 - The third pillar is identified as a key area for future development in China's pension system, with a focus on optimizing overall pension replacement rates through the cultivation and development of this pillar [8][49] - The article emphasizes that a simple comparison of the three pillars' scales is insufficient; it is essential to explore the underlying mechanisms and reasons for their formation [47]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on pension reform highlights the need for clarity on various concepts and perspectives, emphasizing the importance of communication and coordination among different subsystems within China's multi-tiered pension system [1][5]. Group 1: Perspectives on Pension Reform - The first perspective focuses on pension levels, suggesting that as GDP per capita increases, pension benefits should also rise [4]. - The fiscal perspective emphasizes the necessity of funding sources for pension systems, stating that without financial support, even the best designs cannot be implemented [4]. - The investment perspective points out the potential for value preservation and growth through investments, despite global market volatility [4]. - The equity perspective views pensions as a crucial channel for income redistribution [4]. - The transition from a planned economy to a market economy raises challenges in pension system redesign, particularly regarding funding gaps and incentive mechanisms [4][5]. Group 2: Three Pillars of Pension System - The relationship between the three pillars of the pension system is a key topic of discussion, with questions about optimal structure and integration among the pillars [5]. - The definition of the first pillar in China differs from that of the OECD and World Bank, as it incorporates actuarial and contribution-related elements rather than being purely universal [6]. - The second pillar's potential benefits from mandatory participation are acknowledged, drawing parallels with Hong Kong's mandatory provident fund introduced in the 1990s [6]. Group 3: Coverage and Stakeholder Considerations - The issue of pension coverage, particularly for rural farmers, remains contentious, with historical debates influencing current low coverage levels for this demographic [7]. - The interests and perceptions of enterprises regarding pension policies are often overlooked, necessitating a balance between social security contributions and corporate competitiveness [7]. - Concerns about extending retirement age are raised, as companies may resist due to potential impacts on productivity and increased absenteeism among older employees [7]. Group 4: Impact of Technology - The influence of artificial intelligence on income distribution and its implications for the pension system is highlighted, with a call for effective mechanisms to channel the benefits of AI into the pension framework [8].

Group 1: Aging Population Challenge - China is facing an unprecedented aging challenge, with the elderly population aged 60 and above reaching 31.03 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 22.0% of the total population [2] - The elderly dependency ratio for those aged 65 and above is 22.8%, highlighting the increasing social burden and the limitations of traditional family-based care [2] - The transition to a more diversified and multi-layered pension system is urgently needed to address the pressures on public pension systems and the inadequacies of relying solely on government or family support [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications - China entered an aging society in 2000 and reached a deep aging society by 2021, with the proportion of those aged 65 and above at 14.2% [3] - The acceleration of population aging poses significant challenges to economic development and social stability, with China's per capita GDP at approximately $13,000 when entering moderate aging, compared to higher figures in Japan and South Korea at similar aging stages [3] Group 3: Pension System Structure - The pension system in China consists of three pillars: basic pension insurance, enterprise annuities, and personal pensions, which are crucial for addressing the aging population [4][5] - Predictions indicate that the cumulative balance of urban employee basic pension insurance funds will peak at 6.99 trillion yuan by 2027 and then decline rapidly, potentially exhausting reserves by 2035 [6] Group 4: Financial Support for Aging - The Chinese government has been actively promoting policies to support the development of pension finance, emphasizing the need for a multi-layered pension insurance system [7] - China Merchants Bank is strategically positioning itself in the pension finance sector, offering comprehensive solutions through pension finance, elderly service finance, and pension industry finance [8] Group 5: Service Innovations - China Merchants Bank has established a competitive advantage in the pension finance sector, providing services to over 9,900 enterprises and managing nearly 30 billion yuan in enterprise annuity assets [8] - The bank's initiatives include creating age-friendly banking environments and offering personalized services to elderly clients, demonstrating a commitment to enhancing the quality of life for seniors [9][10] Group 6: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The pension finance sector in China is still transitioning from its initial phase to maturity, facing challenges such as limited financial support, single financing channels, and long project profitability cycles [7] - The potential of the second pillar of pension finance remains largely untapped, with less than 10% of employees covered by enterprise annuities, indicating significant room for growth [10] Group 7: Societal Impact and Future Outlook - The development of pension finance is crucial for ensuring that every elderly individual can enjoy a dignified and secure retirement, reflecting the societal values of respect and care for the elderly [11] - The balance between efficiency and equity in pension finance is a key challenge, requiring financial institutions to manage risks while ensuring fair access to resources for all elderly individuals [11]

Group 1: Characteristics of Aging Society in China - The elderly population in China is substantial, with 217 million individuals aged 65 and above in 2023, projected to exceed 300 million by 2034 and 400 million by 2052, making China the largest elderly population country globally [2][3] - Urban-rural disparities in aging are evident, with rural areas experiencing faster and deeper aging, necessitating policies that promote integrated development and address the unique needs of the elderly in rural settings [3][4] - There is insufficient understanding of the health status of the elderly, with estimates indicating that 6.18 million elderly individuals are disabled, highlighting the need for better tracking and statistics to inform health industry development [4] Group 2: Feasible Paths for Pension Finance Development - China is gradually establishing a three-pillar pension framework, consisting of basic pension insurance, enterprise/occupational annuities, and personal pensions, which aligns with international practices [5][6] - The broad concept of pension finance in China includes pension financial services, financing for related industries, and financial services for various elderly needs, indicating a comprehensive approach to pension finance [5][6] Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions should enhance their understanding of the necessity of pension finance, as nearly 70% of urban residents believe in planning for retirement wealth early [15] - There is a need to develop a series of health-oriented financial products that cater to individual retirement planning, integrating various financial services to ensure stability and predictability for clients [16][18] - Institutions should leverage the bond market for innovative financing solutions, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs) and asset-backed securities (ABS), to support the long-term investment nature of pension finance [20]