Core Insights - China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales have ranked first globally for ten consecutive years, with a projected global market share of 63.7% in 2024 and an estimated sales volume of approximately 16 million units by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 46.15% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is expected to reach a scale of 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with growth primarily driven by power batteries and energy storage batteries [1] - China's share of the global power battery market is anticipated to increase from 38.35% in 2020 to 68.79% by 2025, while domestic energy storage lithium battery companies are projected to account for over 90% of global shipments [1] Future Outlook - During the 15th Five-Year Plan, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles is expected to significantly exceed the overall industry growth rate, with a continuous increase in market penetration [1] - Demand for energy storage lithium batteries is forecasted to grow faster than that for power batteries, becoming the primary growth driver [1] - Accelerated technological iteration in lithium batteries and the expansion of application scenarios will contribute to the industry's shift towards a green and low-carbon direction [1] - The construction of a unified large market and the rectification of internal competition will have a profound impact on industry development during the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Investment Index - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976), which selects 50 listed companies involved in lithium batteries, charging piles, and new energy vehicles from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, focusing on sectors such as batteries, passenger vehicles, and energy metals to reflect the overall performance of the new energy vehicle industry chain [1]

Group 1: Overview of the Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected revenue of 2.25 trillion yuan in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.80% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - China's lithium battery sector holds a global competitive advantage, with over 70% of key materials shipped globally and a 68.79% share in the global power battery market [2] - Despite the growth in revenue, net profits are expected to decline significantly, with a forecasted net profit of 110.1 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a mismatch between profit scale and global industry position [2] Group 2: Overview of the New Energy Vehicle Industry - Since 2009, China's automotive production and sales have ranked first globally, with both surpassing 30 million units in 2024, making China the largest automobile exporter [3] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector has shown remarkable competitiveness, with sales reaching 12.859 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.10%, accounting for 40.92% of total NEV sales in China [3] - The automotive industry's revenue is projected to reach 10.65 trillion yuan in 2024, but overall profits remain low, with an expected profit of 462.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than the peak profit of 688.3 billion yuan in 2017 [3] Group 3: Policy Measures Against "Involution" Competition - The Chinese government has initiated a series of macro policies to address "involution" competition, with the first mention in July 2024 by the Central Political Bureau [4] - Subsequent meetings and reports have emphasized the need for comprehensive measures to tackle this issue, aiming to enhance the global competitiveness of the NEV and lithium battery industries [4][5] - Industry associations and companies are responding to these policies, with initiatives such as closed-door discussions focused on combating involution in the sector [5]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry Overview - China's lithium battery and new energy vehicle industries have significant global competitiveness, with the lithium battery sector's valuation notably below the industry median level of 44.41 times since 2013 [1] - The lithium battery segment is expected to generate revenue of 2.25 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.80% from 2018 to 2024, despite a substantial decline in net profit projected for 2023-2024 [1] - Key issues in the lithium battery industry include a mismatch between net profit scale and global industry position, overall low profitability, and excess capacity due to continuous release of production capacity in the segmented fields [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry Overview - Since 2009, China's automotive production and sales have ranked first globally, with projections indicating over 30 million units produced and sold in 2024, making China the largest automobile exporter [2] - The new energy vehicle sector has maintained a leading position globally, with sales expected to reach 12.859 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.10%, accounting for 40.92% of total new energy vehicle sales in China [2] - Despite growth in production and sales, the overall profitability of the automotive industry remains low, with projected profits of 462.3 billion yuan in 2024, significantly lower than the peak profit of 688.3 billion yuan in 2017 [2] Group 3: Policy Measures Against "Involution" Competition - The Chinese government has initiated a series of macro policies to address "involution" competition, with the central political bureau emphasizing the need to prevent such competition for the first time in July 2024 [3] - Various government bodies and industry associations have introduced self-regulatory initiatives and policies aimed at enhancing the global competitiveness of the new energy vehicle and lithium battery industries [3] - The comprehensive measures against involution are expected to further strengthen the global competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle and lithium battery sectors [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 3, 2025 - Report Type: Coal and Coke Daily Report - Industry: Black Metal Core Views - **Coke**: On July 3, the coke main contract closed at 1,445.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.05%. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. The central financial and economic commission's meeting led to an expectation of supply - side adjustment, boosting the coke futures to rebound from a low level. In the short - term, the fundamentals change little, and the futures may maintain a relatively strong trend [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 3, the coking coal main contract closed at 856 points, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The spot price at Ganqimaodu Port increased. The central financial and economic commission's meeting on anti - involution competition raised supply - side adjustment expectations. Although there is an expectation of increased supply in July, concerns about medium - to - long - term supply contraction drove the main contract to rebound [6][32]. Industry News - **Passenger Car Market**: From June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.032 million vehicles, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 5% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.849 million vehicles, a 10% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 2.473 million vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase and a 7% increase from the previous month, with a cumulative wholesale of 13.263 million vehicles this year, a 12% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On July 3, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The 102,400 - ton Mongolian No. 4 raw coal was sold at the starting price of $78/ton, with the price unchanged from the previous day [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - closing) | 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,170 yuan/ton | 2.63% | 0.86% | - 27.78% | - 43.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 930 yuan/ton | 7.51% | 7.51% | - 21.19% | - 41.88% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1.68% | 0.00% | - 18.79% | - 42.11% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 18.30% | - 39.61% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,445.5 | 2.05% | 1,450.0 | 1,426.0 | 22,987 | - 7,179 | 49,437 | - 291 | | Coking Coal | | 856.0 | 3.76% | 863.0 | 836.0 | 1,094,031 | - 95,952 | 539,289 | 10,062 | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][18] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24] - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation charts [25][28][29] Market Outlook - **Coke**: The short - term fundamentals change little. The anti - involution governance expectation boosts market sentiment, and the coke futures may maintain a relatively strong trend [5][31] - **Coking Coal**: Although there is an expectation of increased supply in July, the anti - involution campaign raises concerns about medium - to - long - term supply contraction, driving the main contract to rebound [6][32]