Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2] Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Overall, the downstream copper demand and acceptance are supportive, the scrap substitution effect is also effective, and there are no substantial negatives in the overseas macro - level. So, the copper price is viewed positively, and attention can be paid to the internal - external reverse arbitrage positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In the low - inventory pattern, it can be held at low prices. Pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage. In the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of the commodity sentiment. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - The fundamentals of stainless steel generally remain weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy trends [12] - The lead price declined this week. It is expected that battery factories will replenish their stocks next week, and the lead price center will rise [13] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline, maintaining a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [14] - In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon have turned to a balanced state in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial silicon capacity is still in a large surplus, and the price will mainly fluctuate at the cycle bottom [17] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved smoothly, the lithium carbonate capacity surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [19] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Performance**: In the first half of the week, the copper price was supported around 78,000 yuan. In the second half, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and the low scrap - refined spread, the copper price was strong on Friday night, trying to break through 79,000 yuan [1] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium increased by 136, the warehouse receipt decreased by 3496, the spot import profit decreased by 123.88, and the three - month import profit decreased by 291.50 [1] Aluminum - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Overseas demand declined significantly, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August [2] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 120 yuan, the domestic alumina price decreased by 1, the import alumina price decreased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 [1][2] Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and the import TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has some production resistance due to processing fees [5] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60 yuan, the LME C - 3M increased by 3, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1075 [5] Nickel - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is generally weak, and the inventory of nickel plates at home and abroad remains stable [8] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the spot import income increased by 268.35, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 [8] Stainless Steel - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - atmosphere. Costs remain stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly [12] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, and the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 yuan [12] Lead - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead has low start - up. On the demand side, the battery inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have fallen. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July [13] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium remained unchanged, the spot import income decreased by 86.27, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [13] Tin - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. On the demand side, the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [14] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot import income increased by 1853.59, the LME C - 3M decreased by 13, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [14] Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply and demand have turned to balance in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the capacity is in large surplus [17] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 240, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 43 [15][17] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: There are short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the long - term, the capacity is still in surplus [19] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage positions between domestic and overseas markets in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to the far - month inter - month and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage; in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand situation [2] - Regarding zinc, in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment due to the strong overseas and weak domestic situation; the domestic - overseas positive arbitrage can continue to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [11] - For lead, it is expected that battery factories will replenish stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [12] - For tin, in the short - term, it is recommended to sell short lightly at high prices due to the co - existence of domestic raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [13] - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and if either the southwest or Hesheng reaches full production, the monthly balance will quickly turn to surplus; in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity; in the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at a low level, and the downward space needs a significant weakening of demand [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices found support around 78,000 yuan, and downstream point - pricing and inventory - stocking improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices were strong. The downstream start - up and purchasing power provided support, and the refined - scrap substitution effect worked, so the copper inventory accumulation trend was not strong [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. In August, demand is expected to be in the seasonal off - season, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand has declined significantly. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases [2] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, while the imported TC rises slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakens seasonally, and overseas, some refineries face production resistance. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - On the supply side, the pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. The domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain stable [8] Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have reduced production passively. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid needs, and some inventory replenishment has increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts remain stable [11] Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead maintains low - level operation. On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectation has fallen back to reality. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [12] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly from July to August, and overseas, the resumption of production signals are released but with recruitment difficulties. On the demand side, the solder elasticity is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth rates are expected to decline. The domestic inventory rises, and the overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [13] Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and if either the southwest or Hesheng reaches full production, the monthly balance will quickly turn to surplus. In the long - term, the production capacity is still in significant surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, due to the resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at a low level [18]