Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2] Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Overall, the downstream copper demand and acceptance are supportive, the scrap substitution effect is also effective, and there are no substantial negatives in the overseas macro - level. So, the copper price is viewed positively, and attention can be paid to the internal - external reverse arbitrage positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In the low - inventory pattern, it can be held at low prices. Pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage. In the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of the commodity sentiment. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - The fundamentals of stainless steel generally remain weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy trends [12] - The lead price declined this week. It is expected that battery factories will replenish their stocks next week, and the lead price center will rise [13] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. In the short - term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline, maintaining a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [14] - In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon have turned to a balanced state in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial silicon capacity is still in a large surplus, and the price will mainly fluctuate at the cycle bottom [17] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved smoothly, the lithium carbonate capacity surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [19] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Performance**: In the first half of the week, the copper price was supported around 78,000 yuan. In the second half, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and the low scrap - refined spread, the copper price was strong on Friday night, trying to break through 79,000 yuan [1] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium increased by 136, the warehouse receipt decreased by 3496, the spot import profit decreased by 123.88, and the three - month import profit decreased by 291.50 [1] Aluminum - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Overseas demand declined significantly, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August [2] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 120 yuan, the domestic alumina price decreased by 1, the import alumina price decreased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 [1][2] Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and the import TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has some production resistance due to processing fees [5] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60 yuan, the LME C - 3M increased by 3, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1075 [5] Nickel - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is generally weak, and the inventory of nickel plates at home and abroad remains stable [8] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the spot import income increased by 268.35, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 [8] Stainless Steel - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - atmosphere. Costs remain stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly [12] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 yuan, and the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 yuan [12] Lead - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead has low start - up. On the demand side, the battery inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have fallen. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July [13] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot premium remained unchanged, the spot import income decreased by 86.27, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [13] Tin - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. On the demand side, the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [14] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the spot import income increased by 1853.59, the LME C - 3M decreased by 13, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [14] Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply and demand have turned to balance in August. In the medium - to - long - term, the capacity is in large surplus [17] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 240, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 43 [15][17] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: There are short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the long - term, the capacity is still in surplus [19] - **Data Changes**: From August 7th to 13th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3000 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 850 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long domestic and short overseas positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, in the short - term, hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long domestic and short overseas positions; in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2]. - For zinc, in the short - term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, so it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment; the long overseas and short domestic positions can continue to be held, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [5]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, so pay attention to the later policy direction [11]. - For lead, it is expected that battery factories will replenish stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [12]. - For tin, it is recommended to short lightly at high prices in the short - term [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity, and in the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at the low - level bottom [18]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream pricing and stockpiling improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices were strong, trying to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. - The downstream start - up and demand have support, the scrap - refined substitution effect works, the copper inventory accumulation trend is not strong, and there is no substantial negative in the overseas macro - level [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. In August, demand is in the seasonal off - season, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand has declined significantly [2]. - In August, inventory is expected to continue to increase slightly. Supply increase is limited, demand is acceptable, and aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small. Pay attention to the relaxation of the trade war [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and some scattered orders have decreased, while the imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized [5]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and most spot markets except Shanghai have turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees, with a slight increase in the spot premium [5]. - Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is declining rapidly, approaching the lowest level in nearly two years [5]. Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, the nickel plate inventory in both domestic and overseas markets remains stable [8]. - The short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have passively reduced production, and some in the north are affected by the military parade. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand, and some inventory replenishment has increased due to the macro - environment [11]. - The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts remain stable [11]. Lead - This week, lead prices fell. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste batteries are in short supply due to the expansion of recycling plants, and the recycled lead maintains low - level operation. The concentrate supply has tightened, and the TC quotation is falling [12]. - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery start - up rate has increased slightly, and the market's expectation of the peak season has declined. The terminal consumption inventory reduction and lead ingot procurement are weak [12]. - The exchange inventory has reached a high of 70,000 tons, the recycled lead is holding prices, the refined - scrap price difference is +25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 20, mainly for long - term contract supply [12]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, some domestic smelters have reduced production and are about to enter the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult, and the specific quantity depends on the August arrival [13]. - On the demand side, the demand for solder is inelastic, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaic is expected to decline. Domestic inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with the risk of a short squeeze [13]. - The supply of small - brand tin ingots is tight, and the exchange inventory is mainly high - priced Yun - brand tin, with low downstream提货 willingness [13]. Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the resumption of production in Southwest China and Hesheng is stable, and the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state. If either reaches full production, the balance will quickly turn to surplus [16]. - In the long - term, the industrial silicon production capacity is still in serious surplus, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Currently, the core contradiction of lithium carbonate is the long - term over - capacity and the short - term resource - end compliance disturbance [18]. - With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction after the production reduction of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine, and the mine shutdown indicates strong policy strength, so the short - term price has large upward elasticity [18]. - In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the low - level bottom [18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with the monthly spread and premium slightly declining, which will have a positive impact on spot market consumption, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slow [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory depletion, and the monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the domestic - foreign positive spread at an appropriate time [2]. - There are opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, which can continue to be monitored [3]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [6]. - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long term [9]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weak in the long - term due to capacity expansion [9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: The domestic market continued to accumulate inventory slightly this week. The monthly spread and spot premium decreased, and spot trading improved. The LME inventory decreased by 1,925 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 3,275 tons [1]. - **Supply - side**: The Kamo' a mine had some mining areas shut down due to an earthquake, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have a negative impact on domestic TC [1]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic electrolytic copper consumption showed resilience. The State Grid issued the second - batch of tenders this week, and cable consumption and orders are expected to be strong in the remaining time of the second quarter. However, consumption in some sectors showed signs of weakening [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: Supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price rebounded with inventory depletion [1]. - **Supply - side**: The supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large [1]. - **Demand - side**: The demand decline from May to June is not obvious. Aluminum product exports are maintained, and photovoltaic demand declined slightly. There is still a supply - demand gap [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The zinc price oscillated this week. The domestic social inventory accumulation was slow, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared to the previous month [2]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic demand elasticity is limited, with weak orders in North China. Exports in East and South China can be maintained due to the easing of tariff sentiment. Overseas demand in Europe improved slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The price of pure nickel decreased, and the overseas nickel plate inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3]. - **Demand - side**: The overall demand is weak, and the spot premium is maintained [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: The prices of various stainless - steel products remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: The lead price oscillated and declined this week. The LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [6]. - **Supply - side**: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Recycling merchants panicked to sell due to concerns about price changes after the holiday. Mid - stream recycled smelters have concentrated production capacity, but the supply of waste batteries is tight, and most operate at half - capacity. The concentrate production increased from March to April [6]. - **Demand - side**: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and the overall demand is weak. The consumption is in the off - season, and orders only meet rigid needs [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the cancelled warrants increased by 10 tons [8]. - **Supply - side**: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province have cut production, and those in Yunnan Province are struggling to maintain production [8]. - **Demand - side**: The elasticity of solder demand is limited. The growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline significantly. After the large - scale restocking by downstream enterprises, there is a lack of consumption - side impetus for further inventory reduction [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The market price remained low. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the overall inventory level is still high [9]. - **Supply - side**: Some large northern factories resumed production, and Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production. The overall start - up rate increased slightly. The enthusiasm of small and medium - sized factories to start production decreased [9]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is in a downward trend. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased and then rebounded. The inventory accumulation speed slowed down this week [9]. - **Supply - side**: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua resumed, and small recycling factories cut production more severely. Some self - owned mines are at a loss, and high - position hedging is used for sales [9]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream demand is weak. The policies such as trade - in do not improve the demand as expected. The lithium ore price continues to decline, and the lithium price loses support [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 RMB, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow, and the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting the refined copper price [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction. The positive spread between months can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - The zinc price is oscillating. It is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [2] - Opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 RMB next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - The tin market is expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the long term [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - to - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot price increased by 10, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons [1] - **Supply**: The Kamo copper mine may have reduced production due to an earthquake, and the Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June [1] - **Demand**: Domestic refined copper consumption shows resilience, with strong cable consumption expected in the second quarter, but consumption in some sectors is weakening [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 140 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons [1] - **Supply**: Supply has increased slightly, and there was significant aluminum ingot import from January to April [1] - **Demand**: Demand is not expected to decline significantly from May to June, and there is still a supply - demand gap [1] - **Inventory**: Inventory is expected to decline steadily from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons [2] - **Supply**: Domestic and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly in May [2] - **Demand**: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, while overseas demand is slightly recovering [2] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory is accumulating slowly, and the LME inventory is declining slightly [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 200 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 864 tons [3] - **Supply**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3] - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak, and the spot premium remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the price of 201 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 25 RMB/ton, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 50 RMB/ton [3] - **Supply**: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3] - **Demand**: Demand is mainly for essential needs [3] - **Inventory**: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have been cleared [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons [4][6][11] - **Supply**: Scrap lead supply is weak, and some secondary smelters are reducing production [6] - **Demand**: Battery export orders have decreased slightly, and overall demand is weak [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 7,484.98, and the LME inventory increased by 20 tons [8] - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State's short - term resumption of production requires negotiation, and some domestic smelters in Jiangxi have reduced production [8] - **Demand**: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 100, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 340 [9] - **Supply**: Some large northern factories have resumed production, and overall production has increased slightly [9] - **Demand**: Demand from the organic silicon and polysilicon industries is declining, and enterprises are purchasing mainly for essential needs [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is starting to decline, but the overall inventory level is still high [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 22 - 28, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 500 RMB/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 300 [9] - **Supply**: Some production lines have resumed work, and some small recycling plants have increased production cuts [9] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and enterprises are maintaining only safety stocks [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week [9]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - **Supply**: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - **Demand**: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]