本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 1 月 9 日 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 8 日发布的题为《Supersize profits》 的报告，过去一个月海力士 2026 年营业利润的市场一致预期已上调 30%，自 9 月以来累计上调 120%。分析指出， 由于数据中心客户需求保持强劲，DRAM 供应商积极提价，考虑到供应商库存处于极低水平，这一趋势预计将在未 来几个季度持续。 SK 海力士 000660 KS 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 韩国科技行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 利润超预期增长 目前海力士 DRAM 和 NAND 库存分别仅为 2 周和 6 周，在旺盛需求与供给受限的双重推动下，内存市场已完全转向 卖方市场。尽管大客户要求供应商签订长期 ...

Group 1: Rating Adjustments - Bank of America downgraded Intel's rating from "Neutral" to "Underperform," maintaining a target price of $34, citing a recent $80 billion market cap increase that reflects improved balance sheet and wafer foundry potential, but highlighting competitive challenges in AI product strategy and server CPU competitiveness [1] - Texas Instruments' rating was also downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with a target price reduced from $208 to $190, due to potential demand suppression in the industrial sector from global tariff volatility and limited benefits from the current AI capital expenditure cycle [1] - GlobalFoundries' rating was downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with a target price of $35, reflecting short-term macroeconomic headwinds and a need for improved gross margin and pricing capabilities to shift market sentiment [2] Group 2: Positive Rating Changes - Bank of America upgraded Applied Materials' rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," raising the target price to $250, driven by expected strong growth in the wafer fabrication equipment market due to DRAM investment recovery [3] - Axcelis Technologies' rating was downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with expectations of a strong memory market growth of approximately 16% by 2026, benefiting from NAND expansion and DRAM equipment investment recovery [3] - Camtek's rating was upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy," with a target price of $135, as demand for high-bandwidth memory testing is expected to accelerate sales growth [3] Group 3: Target Price Adjustments - Bank of America raised target prices for Lam Research, KLA, Nova, MKS Instruments, and Teradyne, with Lam Research being highlighted as a top semiconductor equipment stock due to its diversified growth capabilities beyond wafer fabrication equipment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns of a significant shift in the global memory market, with challenges to the "premium myth" of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and a cyclical recovery opportunity for traditional storage products [1] Group 1: HBM Market Dynamics - The pricing environment for HBM is rapidly changing, with increased competition expected to lead to a significant market share shift by 2026 [1][3] - Current pricing negotiations for HBM3E are around $440 per cubic inch ($1.69/Gb), while HBM4 pricing is set between $590-$600 ($2.3-$2.34/Gb), but may face further discount pressures if Samsung gains certification [3][4] - SK Hynix's market share in the Nvidia segment is projected to drop from 85-90% in 2025 to over 50% in 2026 due to intensified competition from Samsung and Micron [3] Group 2: Traditional Storage Market Outlook - The DRAM market is experiencing short-term pricing pressures, with contract pricing growth slowing in Q3, particularly for DDR5 products [5][7] - The fourth quarter is expected to see further slowing in contract pricing growth, with most consumer electronics customers maintaining stable DDR5 prices, while AI demand supports low to mid-single-digit price increases for server customers [7][10] - The NAND market shows a clear divergence, with Q3 contract pricing rising 3-5%, lower than previous expectations, and enterprise SSD demand expected to remain strong into 2026 [7][10] Group 3: Macro Factors Impacting Memory Stocks - Morgan Stanley favors traditional commodity memory over HBM products, particularly traditional DRAM, due to favorable macroeconomic factors [11] - Positive U.S. CPI data is raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could lead to a market rotation towards undervalued traditional memory stocks if economic growth expectations improve [11]