01服务器CPU，变革丛生 "2030 年，数据中心服务器半导体价值将达 5000 亿美元。"市场研究机构 Yole 的这一预测，正指向一个快速膨胀的赛道。而 IDC 半导体研究副总裁 Mario Morales 的判断更直接："未来五年，数据中心将成为半导体全行业增长最快的领域。" 数据中心这条赛道，好像没人不看好。 在服务器 CPU 领域，x86、ARM、RISC-V 正在进行一场静默的架构革命。不同架构的市场里，各自酝酿着不寻常的变局。 x86架构，权力正在重构 服务器CPU作为数据中心的核心组件，其重要性和复杂性正日益凸显。 过去十余年里，x86架构在服务器CPU中占据主导地位，其中英特尔凭借深厚的技术积累与完善的生态布局，多年来几乎独霸这片市场，形成难以撼动的 行业格局。 不过，这样的稳固态势正在悄然松动。 服务器CPU市场份额 | 时间 | 英特尔 | AMD | | --- | --- | --- | | 2021年01 | 91.1% | 8.9% | | 2021年02 | 90.5% | 9.5% | | 2021年Q3 | 89.8% | 10.2% | | 2021年Q4 | 89.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel is uncertain about whether to spin off its foundry division into a new entity, despite pressure from board members and some shareholders, while CEO Pat Gelsinger opposes the idea, leading to internal uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Historical Context - AMD transitioned to a fabless model in 2008 after facing significant economic challenges, including product delays that negatively impacted shareholder value [2]. - AMD's operational losses were largely due to semiconductor manufacturing costs, which were a critical part of its business at the time [2][3]. - The decision to spin off its foundry division, initially named "The Foundry Co." and later GlobalFoundries, was made after AMD recognized the need to focus on product design and reduce manufacturing costs [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - AMD's spin-off of GlobalFoundries resulted in a cash inflow of $700 million and $1.1 billion in debt relief, along with a 34% equity stake in the new company [3]. - The current estimated loss for Intel's foundry division is projected to be around $13 billion in 2024, which represents nearly 10% of the company's market valuation [5]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Intel's board members support the idea of a spin-off to enhance shareholder value and maintain domestic chip manufacturing capabilities, especially in light of U.S. government involvement [5][6]. - CEO Gelsinger is concerned that a spin-off could disrupt the momentum of the foundry division, which has seen significant investment and development in advanced processes [6][7]. - The potential spin-off raises questions about research continuity, political risks, cash flow, and competitive positioning, with various trade-offs to consider [8].

Core Viewpoint - Intel is uncertain about whether to spin off its foundry division into a new entity, but it can learn from AMD's past experiences, particularly regarding the impact of economic and political factors on its operations [2][8]. Summary by Sections Background on AMD - AMD faced significant economic challenges in 2008, leading to delays in product releases, particularly in the server CPU segment, which negatively impacted shareholder value [3]. - The company experienced years of operational losses, largely due to semiconductor manufacturing costs, prompting a reevaluation of its operational structure [5]. AMD's Transition to Fabless Model - AMD decided to spin off its foundry division, initially named "The Foundry Co." and later renamed GlobalFoundries, in a deal that provided $700 million in cash and $1.1 billion in debt relief [5]. - The transition allowed AMD to focus on product design and improve cash flow, ultimately enhancing its competitive position against Intel [6]. Lessons for Intel - Intel must learn from AMD's experience, as operating a foundry can lead to substantial losses and unsustainable practices, impacting the quality of retail products [8]. - Intel's foundry division is projected to incur losses of approximately $13 billion in 2024, representing nearly 10% of the company's market value [8]. Internal Debate on Spin-off - There is a complex debate within Intel regarding the potential spin-off of its foundry division, with board members and some shareholders supporting the move to enhance shareholder value and maintain domestic chip manufacturing capabilities [8][9]. - CEO Pat Gelsinger is concerned that a spin-off could disrupt the momentum of the foundry division, which has seen significant investment and development in advanced processes [9]. Future Considerations - Intel should focus on improving its 18A process technology to compete effectively with TSMC's N2 process, as this is crucial for the company's future success [11]. - The decision to spin off or retain the foundry division will significantly impact research continuity, cash flow, and competitive positioning in the semiconductor market [12].

市场调查机构Mercury Research公布的最新数据显示，2025年第二季度，AMD桌面CPU市场份额跃升至 32.2%，较上一季度环比增长4.2个百分点，较去年同期大幅提升近10个百分点；桌面CPU收入份额达到 39.3%，与数据中心级EPYC处理器41%的收入份额基本持平，均创下历史新高。同时，其服务器CPU市 场份额提升至27.3%，收入份额首次攀升至41%，为自首款EPYC处理器问世以来的最高纪录。 回顾2017年，AMD服务器CPU市场份额尚处于个位数水平，与英特尔的Xeon系列存在较大差距。而在 短短几年内，AMD便实现了从边缘玩家到主流供应商（36.5%）的跨越式发展。 此外，苏姿丰还透露，AMD正积极布局AI计算领域。尽管目前在AI GPU领域尚未对英伟达形成直接挑 战，但公司有信心凭借自身的创新能力和持续投入，逐步在AI硬件市场复制其在服务器CPU市场的成 功。（纯钧） 苏姿丰指出，如今众多客户已将AMD视为战略级的CPU供应商，其在数据中心CPU领域的市场地位， 可与英伟达在AI加速器领域的主导地位相媲美。 来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】8月17日消息，AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在 ...

Core Viewpoint - NeoLogic, an Israeli semiconductor startup, aims to develop energy-efficient server CPUs using a new design method called "CMOS+" to address the limitations of traditional chip design and the increasing energy demands of data centers [2][3][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - NeoLogic was founded in 2021 by Avi Messica and Ziv Leshem, who have a combined 50 years of experience in the semiconductor industry [2]. - The company is working on a server CPU that simplifies logic, uses fewer transistors, and operates faster while consuming less power [2][3]. Group 2: Technology and Innovation - The CMOS+ design method combines standard CMOS gates with low-complexity gate circuits, potentially reducing processor size by 40% and power consumption by half [6][7]. - This technology allows for a significant reduction in the number of transistors needed, which in turn lowers power consumption [6][7]. - NeoLogic's design enhances processing efficiency by improving the ability to handle multiple data points in parallel, thus increasing speed while reducing power usage [7]. Group 3: Market Potential and Financials - NeoLogic recently completed a $10 million Series A funding round led by KOMPAS VC, with participation from M Ventures, Maniv Mobility, and lool Ventures [3]. - The company plans to use the funds to expand its engineering team and accelerate CPU development [3][8]. - The anticipated growth in AI technology is expected to double data center electricity consumption in the next four years, highlighting the need for NeoLogic's energy-efficient solutions [3][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - NeoLogic aims to launch a single-core test chip by the end of this year and plans to deploy its server CPUs in data centers by 2027 [3][8]. - The company expects to capture a double-digit market share in the server processor market within five years, driven by the cost-effectiveness of its CPUs compared to GPUs [8].

Overall Performance - AMD reported Q2 2025 revenue of $7.69 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31.7%, exceeding market expectations of $7.43 billion. The growth was driven by client and gaming segments, as well as data center business [1][6] - The company's GAAP gross margin was 39.8%, significantly down due to an $800 million inventory impairment related to MI308. Excluding this impact, the actual gross margin would be 50.2%, flat compared to the previous quarter [1][6] Operating Expenses - R&D expenses for the quarter were $1.89 billion, up 19.6% year-over-year, while sales and administrative expenses rose 52% to $990 million [1][2] - The core operating expense ratio reached 37.5%, affecting profit margins [2] Profitability - AMD achieved a net profit of $872 million, influenced by non-recurring items. The core operating profit was $174 million, reflecting a significant decline with a core operating margin of only 2.3% [2][6] Business Segments - Client segment revenue grew to $2.5 billion, a 67.5% increase year-over-year, capturing over 50% of the desktop CPU market [2][7] - Data center revenue reached $3.24 billion, up 14.3% year-over-year, driven by increased server CPU shipments and improved product competitiveness [2][9] - The gaming segment saw revenue of $1.12 billion, a notable increase compared to previous quarters [5] Future Guidance - AMD expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $8.4 billion and $9 billion, with a midpoint of $8.7 billion, reflecting a 13.2% sequential growth. This guidance does not include any revenue from MI308 sales to China [4][6] - The company anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin of around 54% for the next quarter [4] AI and Product Development - The MI350 series is expected to significantly boost AI GPU revenue, with projections of over $1.7 billion for the next quarter, aligning closely with market expectations [12][18] - AMD's market share in server CPUs has increased from 10% to approximately 30%, driven by the combination of CPU and GPU offerings [9][11] Market Trends - The overall demand for AI-related products remains strong, with major cloud companies expected to increase capital expenditures significantly in 2025 [14][17] - AMD's valuation reflects optimistic market expectations, with a projected CAGR of 30.3% for core operating profit from 2025 to 2029 [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The data center processor market is undergoing significant shifts, with AMD rapidly gaining market share in the x86 segment and Arm-based CPUs expected to grow substantially, driven by major players like NVIDIA and large-scale enterprises [3][4][6]. Group 1: AMD's Market Position - AMD is quickly capturing Intel's market share in the x86 data center processor space, with its share rising to 40% from nearly zero in 2018 [6]. - AMD's data center revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to be $3.7 billion, with server CPUs accounting for approximately $2.5 to $3 billion of that [8]. - The total shipment of server CPUs for AMD and Intel in Q3 2024 is estimated at 5.5 million units, indicating a significant annual volume [8]. Group 2: Growth of Arm-based CPUs - Arm-based CPUs are expected to capture about 15% of the data center market by the end of 2024, with projections suggesting this could rise to nearly 50% by the end of 2025 [8][12]. - Major cloud providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are developing their own Arm-based CPUs, which are reported to offer significant performance and energy efficiency improvements over x86 [11][14]. - The shift towards Arm is driven by the need for optimized performance for specific workloads, particularly in large-scale computing environments [10]. Group 3: Future Projections - By 2030, the total number of data center CPUs is expected to reach approximately 48 million, with Arm's share potentially rising to 19 million [22]. - The growth of AI workloads is projected to increase by 3.5 times, while non-AI workloads will grow by 1.7 times, further influencing the demand for Arm CPUs [21]. - The trend indicates that large-scale enterprises will increasingly transition workloads from x86 to Arm, particularly as the cost-effectiveness and performance of Arm CPUs improve [22].

Core Viewpoint - Intel is rapidly losing its dominance in the server CPU market to AMD and ARM-based solutions, with predictions indicating that by 2027, AMD and Intel's market shares may be nearly equal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Share Dynamics - As of June 2025, AMD holds approximately 33% of the server CPU market, while Intel's share has decreased to around 62%, a significant change from 2017 when Intel dominated the market [1]. - AMD's market share has surged from about 10% in 2020 to over 20% in 2021 and 2022, with projections suggesting it will reach 36% by the end of 2025, while Intel's share is expected to drop to around 55% [2]. - By 2027, AMD's market share could reach 40%, with Intel potentially falling below the symbolic 50% threshold, and ARM processors may grow to capture 10% to 12% of the market [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - AMD's success is attributed to its Zen architecture and a strong product roadmap, which enhances its competitive edge, while Intel's recent efforts, including the Xeon 6 series, have not positively impacted market data [3]. - The growth of ARM-based server processors, although currently below 10%, is also notable as they gradually gain market share [2].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年5月12日 标配 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） 1. 海外云厂商Q1云业务表现亮眼， 资本开支维持高位——电子行业周 报（2025/4/28-2025/5/4） 2. AI芯片厂商业绩表现亮眼，谷歌 Q1资本开支持续高增——电子行业 周报（2025/4/21-2025/4/27） 3. 2025Q1国内智能手机出货量增速 超越全球市场，AI需求拉动台积电 Q1业绩增长——电子行业周报 （2025/4/14-2025/4/20） [Table_NewTitle] 晶圆代工厂产能利用率高企，下游市场 需求结构性复苏 ——电子行业周报2025/5/5-2025/5/11 [table_main] 投 ...