（原标题：科磊(KLAC.US)估值偏高遭大摩下调评级 但重申基本面强劲并上调盈利预期） 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利将其对半导体设备制造商科磊(KLAC.US)的评级由"增持"下调至"持股 观望"，但将目标价从928美元上调至1093美元。大摩此次下调对科磊股票评级的原因在于该股估值仍然 偏高——该股目前的估值溢价为30%。尽管如此，大摩重申该公司基本面强劲，这得益于来自台积电、 DRAM制造商以及先进封装领域的强劲需求。因此，大摩上调了对科磊2026财年的每股收益预期，由 37.11美元上调至39.03美元。大摩仍对该公司的前景保持信心，因为晶圆厂设备(WFE)收入预计将增长 10%，达到1,280亿美元，高于此前预估的增长5%。 ...

Core Insights - The revenue of the top five Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) manufacturers is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, HBM, and advanced packaging, alongside investments from domestic Chinese customers in mature nodes [1][3] - Despite the overall growth, DRAM and NAND memory equipment sales lagged due to weak demand in consumer-driven markets, resulting in a 13% quarter-on-quarter decline in memory revenue [1] - The top WFE manufacturers, including ASML, Lam Research, and KLA, reported significant revenue growth of 35%, 29%, and 26% respectively, aided by double-digit growth in systems and services [1][3] Revenue Growth and Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, net revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with system revenue up by 22% and service revenue up by 20, driven by customer upgrades and automation [3] - The WFE market is expected to see a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in 2025, with the top five manufacturers outpacing the overall market due to key technological shifts in foundry/logical, DRAM, and NAND sectors [3][4] - The introduction of various tools in etching, deposition, lithography, and process control will support customer roadmaps in foundry/logical, memory, and NAND sectors, contributing to revenue growth in the latter half of 2025 [3][4] Diversification and Strategic Focus - WFE manufacturers are focusing on global business diversification to mitigate the impact of trade regulations and tariffs, ensuring facilities are close to customers and supply chains [5][6] - The growth of the semiconductor ecosystem in India is becoming strategically important, with over $10 billion announced for wafer fabs and OSAT, supported by government subsidies [6][10] - The shift towards advanced packaging is seen as a new growth engine for the semiconductor industry, with advanced packaging becoming a strategic driver for performance and cost optimization [8][10] Future Outlook - The ramp-up of OSAT and foundry tool deployments in India is expected to lead to a surge in tool shipments, benefiting equipment suppliers from high-value capital expenditures and long-term service contracts [9][10] - The long-term growth potential in India is highlighted, with the country positioned to offset long-term revenue declines from China, as multiple fabs and OSAT facilities are established [11]

Core Insights - The semiconductor manufacturing industry is experiencing seasonal patterns, but uncertainties related to tariffs may lead to irregular seasonal fluctuations in various sectors [1][2] - In Q1 2025, electronic device sales decreased by 16% compared to the previous quarter but remained flat year-over-year. Integrated Circuit (IC) sales fell by 2% quarter-over-quarter but increased by 23% year-over-year [1] - Capital investment in semiconductor equipment declined by 7% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025 but grew by 27% year-over-year, driven by investments in advanced logic, high bandwidth memory (HBM), and advanced packaging [1][2] Investment Trends - Investment in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) is accelerating, with a 19% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025, and a projected 12% growth in Q2 2025 [2] - Test equipment sales surged by 56% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with expectations of a further 53% increase in Q2 2025 [2] - Assembly and packaging equipment also experienced double-digit growth [2] Capacity Expansion - Positive capital investments are expected to lead to global wafer fabrication capacity expansion, with 300mm wafer production projected to exceed 42.5 million units per quarter in Q1 2025, marking a 2% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 7% increase year-over-year [2] - Japan is investing to enhance power semiconductor production, while Taiwan continues to invest in its advanced foundry capacity [2] Market Outlook - Despite a bright demand outlook for artificial intelligence and data centers, other sectors may see delayed investments or changing demand due to uncertainties in trade policies [2]