2026 年度策略：看好内需顺周期主线，出海关注龙头 Alpha20260107 摘要 顺周期贝塔领域优先关注需求改善的出行链行业，如航空、酒店、旅游 等，受政策催化影响大，需求改善明显，带动估值提升，航空业已体现 一定弹性。 高端消费领域重点推荐免税和高端黄金珠宝，市场对涨价预期看好，具 有估值加业绩双驱动特征，如中国中免、老铺黄金和潮宏基等。 性价比大众消费当前需求边际改善不明确，供给不稀缺，复苏较晚，依 赖收入提升或 PPI、CPI 数据改善，应寻找竞争格局改善的细分行业龙头。 逆周期行业如教育，需求刚性较强，职业教育、公考景气度稳中有升， 供给侧龙头格局清晰，AI 技术应用是效率催化剂，关注华图山鼎、中国 东方教育等。 出海方面，预计 2026 年下半年有更多机会，出口具韧性，美国实际需 求好于预期，具备阿尔法属性的龙头公司将通过业绩增长驱动，如安克 创新、巨星科技、小商品城等。 Q&A 2026 年商社板块的年度策略是什么？ 2026 年商社板块的年度策略主要分为内需和出海两部分。在内需方面，重点 关注高端消费和顺周期行业；在出海方面，关注龙头企业的表现。 内需方面有哪些重点领域？ 内需方面主要分为 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The social service sector's institutional holdings are at historical lows, with signs of stabilization in the hotel and employment sectors. The CPI's recovery in October reflects a warming consumer market. The report suggests focusing on "domestic demand cyclical + quality new consumption" [4][10]. - Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, which show continuous operational improvement and high valuation cost-effectiveness [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking: Institutional Holdings at Historical Lows - The social service sector has underperformed the market by 9.78% year-to-date, with a year-to-date increase of 11.40% as of November 10, 2025. The sector ranks 19th among 31 primary industries [13]. - The fund holding ratio for the social service sector is 0.46%, down 0.64 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating historical lows [17]. - October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, signaling a recovery in consumer spending [22]. 2. Sub-industry Analysis: Industry Fundamentals Stabilizing - Employment: The hiring confidence index has improved, with values rising from 44.07 in August to 54.87 in October 2025 [29]. - Hotels: The RevPAR growth rate has shown improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in the 44th week of 2025 [39]. - Duty-Free: The new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a significant increase in shopping amounts, with a total of 5.06 billion yuan in sales during the first week of implementation [50]. - Dining: The pressure on customer spending appears to have eased, with service prices showing an upward trend [52]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Marginal Changes - The report emphasizes the importance of marginal changes and suggests actively investing in cyclical and new consumption leaders. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, with a focus on those showing clear improvement trends [10][54].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic cycle and asset pricing globally have deviated from traditional patterns, necessitating attention to three main themes: technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3][4] - The performance of global capital markets in the first half of 2025 was chaotic, with U.S. stocks experiencing fluctuations, European stocks performing well, and an increase in risk appetite for Chinese stocks [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - The three macro themes that dominated the economic landscape in the first half of 2025 were technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to continue influencing capital markets [1][13] - The Chinese bond market is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, with a notable decline in U.S. credit assets impacting global markets [1][11][12] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing but still requires time, as interest rates are not low enough to stimulate domestic demand [1][14] - The transformation of China's policy framework focuses on upgrading technology manufacturing, transitioning from traditional growth models, and reshaping the international payment system, rather than relying on short-term counter-cyclical stimulus [1][15] Additional Important Content - The sentiment in the bond market is currently positive, with expectations of further declines in bond yields due to the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are influencing market dynamics, although the exact impact remains uncertain [6] - The global fiscal landscape has entered a new phase, moving away from large-scale fiscal stimulus towards structural reforms and innovation [18] - The U.S. fiscal situation, characterized by a reduction in deficit rates, is causing market concerns about the sustainability of U.S. credit assets [21] - Japan and Europe are undergoing significant fiscal policy changes, with Japan tightening its monetary policy and Europe increasing fiscal spending [22] Market Performance and Expectations - The performance of U.S. credit assets is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, influenced by trade war dynamics and the gradual tightening of Japan's monetary policy [30] - The Chinese bond market is anticipated to perform positively due to increasing pressures from declining exports and the real estate sector [31] - The stock market outlook is complex, with a recommendation against investing in cyclical sectors due to insufficient interest rate reductions to stabilize the real estate market [32] Conclusion - The current economic environment is characterized by a focus on liquidity-driven asset pricing, with significant implications for investment strategies in both domestic and international markets [1][11][32]