证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 地方落实带薪休假及春秋假，泡泡玛特预热 新 IP [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 安徽省落实错峰带薪休假及中小学生春秋假，看好 服务型消费高景气 2 月 24 日，安徽省政府新闻办举办发布会，发布《关于巩固 拓展经济稳中向好势头若干政策举措》，重点提到落实带薪错 峰休假和中小学春秋假；开展消费新业态新模式新场景试 点；优化以旧换新政策，精准实施消费券等惠民措施等。 2025 年以来，中央多次出台文件鼓励探索中小学春秋假以及 职工带薪休假制度。据美好滁州公众号报道，目前已有包括 浙江省、江苏省、四川省、湖北恩施州、广东佛山、陕西汉 中等地试点探索实施春秋假。我们认为旅游出行是提升内需 的重要抓手，春秋假以及职工带薪休假将有效提升淡季旅行 消费，看好以景区、酒店、OTA、餐饮等为代表的服务型消费 赛道景气度上行。 ► 泡泡玛特造星提速，预热新 IP KeyA 2 月 27 日，泡泡玛特预热全新 IP"KeyA"，官方将其设定为 一个始终在"自我生成 ...

欧洲《现代外交》网站2月26日文章，原题：中国春节消费如何折射经济实况 外界愈加关注中国春节期 间的消费数据，试图从中了解 "十五五"期间这个人口大国的走向。实际上，真正值得关注的是中国消 费结构正在发生的深刻质变：服务型消费成为新增长引擎，人工智能（AI）代表的科技消费持续攀 升，银发经济被进一步激活。这些变化更能反映中国经济的整体趋势。 春节期间，许多宠物主人发布求助帖寻找节假日上门喂宠服务。据报道，某宠物看护机构用20余天就完 成2000次上门喂宠服务，月收入达16万元。这条新闻引发热议。当我们聚焦中国经济宏观趋势时，这些 细微变化更值得深入剖析。 当下中国年轻一代更愿为情感价值买单，其多元化需求正催生更多服务型消费。这种转变也契合国际货 币基金组织（IMF）近期对中国经济的判断。显然，年轻中国消费者正引领潮流。他们不仅在商品上消 费，更在体验、便利和情感满足上投入，这正是服务型经济所需的结构性转变。 机器人在春晚舞台上的流畅表演，则让中国科技消费成为亮眼的新风尚。无人机表演、机器人拜年、 AI祝福，已悄然成为中国人节日期间的"新三样"。其背后蕴藏着更具想象力的故事。当科技产品开始进 入中国民众的节日消 ...

Group 1: Tourism and Travel - The tourism sector shows resilience with long-distance travel and family-oriented trips as key trends, with 596 million domestic trips taken during the 2026 Spring Festival, generating a total expenditure of 803.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7% in daily travel volume and 5.5% in daily spending [2] - Long-distance travel orders accounted for 59.6% of bookings, with an average travel duration of 6.4 days, an increase of 0.5 days year-on-year [2] - Domestic travel orders on the Fliggy platform increased by 80% year-on-year, with average booking amounts rising by approximately 10% [2] Group 2: Offline Consumption - Key retail and catering enterprises saw a daily sales increase of 5.7% compared to the same period in 2025, with a 1.6 percentage point acceleration from the previous year's growth rate [3] - Foot traffic and sales in 78 key pedestrian streets increased by 6.7% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, showing an acceleration compared to the 2025 National Day holiday [3] Group 3: Online Consumption - The performance of beauty and skincare brands during the Spring Festival was mixed, with total sales on Douyin ranging from 250 million to 378 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 12%, but a daily sales figure that remained nearly flat [4] - Notable brand performances included a 114.3% increase for Maogeping, driven by category expansion, and a 58.6% increase for Proya, attributed to strong brand performance [4] Group 4: Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector experienced a decline in sales, with total sales dropping to a range of 260 million to 309 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, primarily due to high sales bases from the previous year and fluctuating gold prices [5] - Brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook achieved good growth rates of 100% and 66.7%, respectively, while mass-market brands saw significant declines [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook on service-oriented and emotional consumption, particularly in travel and beauty sectors, recommending attention to companies like Trip.com and Tongcheng [6] - In the beauty sector, companies with superior category matrix layouts, such as Ying Tong Holdings, are highlighted for potential investment [6]

2026 年 2 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 行业观察 春节消费观察 Market Strategy - 景气度符合预期，品类分化持续 马年春节期间，在为期九天的超长假期及节前九部委联合政策推动下，消费市 场得到一定提振。我们认为，整体趋势符合预期，结构上延续了物质消费与服 务消费分化、以"悦己"为代表的情绪型消费更具韧性等特征。从我们跟踪的 重点板块来看：1）旅游：整体旅游消费增长具备韧性且符合市场预期，"长途 游"和"家庭化"是关键词；2）线下消费：全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售 额及重点步行街（商圈）营业额增速环比及同比均有所提振；3）线上消费：由 于品牌在春节期间的营销投放力度显著弱于 618、双 11 等大型电商促销节点， 整体销售表现相对平淡。 线上消费：品牌营销投放力度显著弱于 618 和双 11，故销售表现平淡。 1）美妆护肤：根据蝉妈妈数据，2026 年春节假期期间，重点品牌在抖音 平台的合计销售额区间从去年的 2.12 亿-3.48 亿元上升至今年的 2.50 亿- 3.78 亿元，同比增速约为 12.0%（图 2）；若以区间中位数计算日均销售 额，同比-0.4%，基 ...

华泰证券认为，主题投资和景气策略仍优于高股息，主题投资关注出口链、服务型消费、机器人应 用等，景气投资关注通信设备、小金属、稀有金属、电池、建材等。 国盛证券表示，有四大变量或成影响节后市场走势的关键。一是美国关税政策仍存不确定性，意味 着贸易摩擦将长期化，短期内将对市场风险偏好形成压制，但出口链企业的韧性已经显现；二是国内人 工智能（AI）大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证，上周 五港股相关板块大涨，A股智能机器人、算力设备、AI应用等板块有望迎来资金追捧；三是以人民币计 价资产的吸引力将提升，尤其是权益市场，外资净流入中国资产已成为大趋势；四是地缘政治不确定性 加剧，推升全球避险情绪。 刚刚结束的马年春节假期可谓"马力十足"。交通运输部发布的数据显示，2026年春节前20天，全社 会跨区域人员流动量超50亿人次，创下了新的历史纪录。同时，国家移民管理局预计今年春节假期全国 口岸日均出入境人员同比增长14.1%，日均超205万人次，比2023年春节增长近5倍。此外，消费也迎来 了"开门红"。今年春节首批以旧换新补贴提前下达，叠加地方政府的消费补贴资金共同为假期消费注入 动 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The core theme of consumer behavior during the Spring Festival is service-oriented consumption, with a noticeable trend towards rational spending [1][2] - Analysts observed that while dining and entertainment venues were busy, consumers preferred more affordable price points, indicating a shift towards rational decision-making in spending [2] - In Jiangsu's consumer market, there was a notable increase in both prices and consumption volume for service-related activities, reflecting a structural upgrade in consumer preferences [3] Group 2: Industrial Development - Analysts noted a surge in new productive forces, with traditional industries accelerating their transformation and upgrade [4] - In Hainan, the integration of commercial aerospace initiatives has led to a thriving local economy, with significant growth in tourism and hospitality linked to the aerospace sector [4] - In Shandong, advancements in energy storage technology and the establishment of a large-scale sodium-ion battery production line highlight the region's industrial evolution [5] Group 3: Overseas Opportunities - Analysts conducted field research overseas, providing valuable insights for Chinese companies looking to expand internationally [6] - In Australia, rising property prices driven by low interest rates and high immigration have become a significant social issue, impacting housing affordability [6] - In Indonesia, local market adaptation is crucial for success, with companies needing to navigate economic and cultural differences to establish a foothold [6]

Core Insights - The annual analyst field survey during the Spring Festival reveals significant trends in China's economy, with a focus on consumer behavior and industrial developments [1] Consumer Insights - Service-oriented consumption has emerged as a key focus, with analysts noting a strong demand for service consumption during the Spring Festival, particularly in Shanghai, where logistics and service sectors thrived [3] - Observations from Jiangsu province indicate a structural upgrade in consumer behavior, shifting from product-centric to a balance of goods and services, with notable increases in prices and consumption levels in entertainment and dining [3] - The rise of new consumption patterns, such as KTV and cinema attendance, reflects a broader trend towards experiential and service-based spending [2][3] Industrial Insights - Analysts report a rise in new productive forces across various regions, with traditional industries undergoing significant upgrades [5] - In Dalian, the port's logistics advantages have fostered a traditional industrial cluster focused on petrochemicals and equipment manufacturing, with a shift towards refined production processes [5] - Shandong's industrial transformation is highlighted by significant investments in new energy storage technologies, indicating a growing focus on innovative industrial applications [6] Overseas Opportunities - Analysts emphasize the potential for Chinese companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia identified as a key market for Chinese enterprises [7] - The importance of localizing products for the Southeast Asian market is underscored, with successful examples like Mengniu and Mixue demonstrating effective market entry strategies [7] - Observations from Sydney indicate rising prices in consumer goods and housing, highlighting economic challenges in international markets [7]

本文转自【杭州日报】； 春节假期聚餐，你会选择让私厨"上门"吗？ 近日，某视频平台发布了一位在长沙从事上门私厨的年轻人创业故事，引发关注。这位"95后"女孩，今年春节做出了一个"先斩后奏"的决定——留在长 沙，为客户上门制作年夜饭。据其介绍，春节这个月收入估计将达4.5万元。 2月18日，记者对话了这位私厨从业者曾恋。对于网友对其收入真实性的怀疑，她表示春节前的半个月，已经挣了约2万元，春节期间10天， 她估计能挣 2.5万元。"春节收入会比平常更高，主要是因为春节期间食材、人工费用都会涨价。" 回应春节收入：年夜饭10菜 包食材1888元、不包食材988元 记者： 这次春节选择"先斩后奏"留长上门做年夜饭，背后最主要的考量是什么？家人最初的态度是怎样的？ 我觉得现在年轻就要能吃苦，现在多赚钱，努力过上自己想要的生活，后面日子就可以轻松一些。我一直觉得，想要获得高收入，同时就要接受得了高强 度的工作，这是相辅相成的。 曾恋： 我做私厨快三年了，这几年也积累了一批有节假日私厨上门做饭需求的客户，客户在年前就提前和我预约了过年期间的上门做饭。 同时，我自己的抖音也一直在分享私厨做饭的日常，也吸引了一部分客户。这次 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising trend of private chef services during the Chinese New Year, driven by consumers' desire for enhanced dining experiences and family gatherings [1][2] - The demand for private chefs has surged, with service fees increasing by 2 to 3 times, reaching between 1,500 to 2,000 yuan, yet the availability remains limited due to high demand [1] - The private chef service market offers flexible pricing models, starting from 200 yuan per person for basic packages to up to 10,000 yuan, catering to various consumer needs for personalized dining experiences [1] Group 2 - The private chef industry is characterized by a demand-driven service model, allowing chefs to customize menus based on customer preferences, thus addressing the limitations of traditional restaurant offerings [2] - The rise of private chef services reflects broader trends in consumer upgrading, the value of family dining experiences, and the ongoing growth of service-oriented consumption [2] - The private chef industry is still in its early stages and faces challenges such as a lack of standardized services; experts suggest that government regulation and industry self-discipline are necessary for future development [2]

Group 1 - Zhang Yidong, a prominent strategist and chief economist, has officially joined Guotai Junan Securities, taking on roles in the executive committee and as head of the equity research department [1][4] - His departure from Industrial Securities was motivated by a desire to focus on overseas markets, particularly in Hong Kong, as part of his career transition [3][4] - Zhang has a strong academic background and extensive experience in the industry, having worked for nearly 20 years at Industrial Securities and received numerous awards for his research [4] Group 2 - Zhang Yidong maintains a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities and long-term growth over short-term economic fluctuations [5] - He identifies four key areas for investment in 2026: AI and technology, dividend assets in a low-interest environment, value discovery in traditional industries, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [5] - Zhang highlights the return of foreign capital to China, particularly through passive ETFs and active management strategies, indicating an increased allocation towards Chinese assets [7]