文 / 张向东 十几年前 一 个 周末 的 晚上 ，中改院院长迟福林去澳大利亚悉尼考察，到了 晚上 想 找个地方吃 饭 。 结果 发现， 很多餐馆都爆满 。 怎么会这样？ 不仅如此，他还对社保、医疗健康、教育等基本公共服务领域的重大改革课题，进行了深入研究 。 他是中国经济体制领域中的"改革老兵"。 二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五 " 规划建议 提出， " 十五五 " 期间，要实现"居民收入增长和 经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步，分配结构得到优化，中等收入群体持续扩大， 社会保障制度更加优化更可持续，基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升。""坚持惠民生和促消费、投 资于物和投资于人紧密结合"。 投资于人，钱从哪里来？在房地产行业受到较大冲击、资产端发生较大改变的情况下，中等收入群体 如何继续扩大？老龄化加剧背景下，中国社保支出压力如何缓解？基本公共服务均等化如何实现？城 乡差距如何进一步缩小？ 根据世界银行发布的2025年最新标准： 人均国民总收入（ GNI）达到或超过13935美元，即属于 高收入国家。而 中国2024年人均GNI为1.34万美元， 已非常 接近高收入国家门槛。 成为高收入国家， ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of strengthening the real economy, with a focus on technological self-reliance and promoting domestic demand as key tasks [2][4][6] - Consumption promotion is not merely about increasing the production of new consumer goods but involves creating more opportunities for consumption through market liberalization and public services [2][9][12] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The plan prioritizes the reinforcement of the manufacturing sector as a foundation for economic development, with technology as a crucial driver for new economic momentum [4][5][15] - The shift from investment-driven growth to a dual-engine model of investment and demand is highlighted as a significant strategic adjustment [4][6] Group 2: Consumption Dynamics - Current consumer spending in China is approximately 37%, significantly lower than the 50% target and 70% in developed countries, indicating a need for structural changes in consumption patterns [7][10] - The focus on service consumption is increasing, with a call for a balanced approach that respects individual needs and promotes diverse consumption opportunities [8][10] Group 3: Social and Cultural Factors - Encouraging personal pursuits and cultural activities, such as street dancing and singing, is seen as essential for stimulating consumption and creating a vibrant economic cycle [2][12][13] - Addressing social concerns, such as healthcare and education, is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending [11][12] Group 4: Technological and Industrial Development - The plan aims to leverage new productive forces to lead various industries towards modernization, emphasizing the integration of technology into traditional sectors [15][18] - The importance of maintaining a complete industrial chain and self-sufficiency in technology and resources is underscored as a response to global competition [19]

Economic Performance Overview - The latest economic data for October indicates a stable and improving trend in China's economy, supported by leading indicators in consumption, industry, and foreign trade [1][17] - The consumer market shows a stable upward momentum, characterized by a dual-driven new pattern of expanding lower-tier markets and leading cultural and tourism consumption [1][7] Consumer Market Insights - Offline consumption has seen significant growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a year-on-year increase of 31.2% in consumption index for third-tier and below cities, compared to 18.9% and 14.5% for first and second-tier cities respectively [1] - The "Double Festival" period (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) saw domestic travel reach 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion, marking substantial growth from the previous year [5] Infrastructure Development - In October, infrastructure construction rates and workload increased month-on-month, with the central region showing the highest growth, reinforcing its role as a "backbone" in national development [8][12] - The average operating rate of construction machinery rose by 1.4% month-on-month, with a workload increase of 5.25% [8] Industrial Production and Employment - Industrial production vitality continues to enhance, with a 0.5 percentage point year-on-year increase in the operating rate of major industrial products and a 19.8% increase in industrial park production heat index [13] - The employment demand remains strong, reflected by an 8.1% year-on-year increase in the labor price index [15] Foreign Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade vitality index, as indicated by the bonded area flow heat index, increased by 17.7% year-on-year, with 23 provinces showing improved growth rates compared to September [15] - The easing of Sino-U.S. trade relations is expected to contribute to sustained resilience in foreign trade [15]

Economic Overview - Beijing's GDP reached 3.8 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - The city plans to implement six major special actions in the fourth quarter to promote sustained economic development across various sectors [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The municipal government will allocate 74 billion yuan in fixed asset investment by the end of October 2025 [2] - A total of 155 local government special bond projects have been issued, amounting to 108.2 billion yuan [2] - The city aims to initiate 160 key projects in the fourth quarter, focusing on urban renewal and quality land supply near transit areas [2] Industry Development - Beijing will introduce new reform measures in technology transfer and talent incentives, particularly in the Zhongguancun area [3] - The city is focusing on stabilizing production in key sectors such as new energy vehicles and pharmaceuticals, while promoting digital and green economy initiatives [3][7] - The number of enterprises with technology innovation centers has reached 1,475, with over 1,000 recognized as "little giant" enterprises [6][7] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales in Beijing reached 980.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a 5.1% decline year-on-year [8] - Service consumption accounted for 59.8% of total consumption, marking the highest level in five years, indicating a shift towards service-oriented spending [8] - The city is leveraging digital technologies to enhance personalized consumption experiences, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment sectors [8] Social Development - Significant progress has been made in social welfare initiatives, including the establishment of new elderly care centers and the expansion of educational facilities [4][5] - The city plans to enhance employment support and improve living standards through various community services and infrastructure projects [5]

Core Insights - The Northwest Civil Aviation sector is focusing on enhancing service-oriented consumption and expanding the international aviation market through the "International First Flight" service product, achieving significant sales growth [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - From January 2024 to August 2025, the sales revenue of the "International First Flight" products from major airlines in Northwest China is expected to exceed 150 million yuan, contributing positively to the activation of the aviation market [1] - Airlines such as Spring Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Chang'an Airlines are offering discounted tickets and promotional coupons for first-time outbound travelers [2] Group 2: Service Innovations - The "International First Flight" service includes a comprehensive package of "ticket + service," tailored to meet the diverse needs of first-time international travelers [2] - Specific services offered include assistance with documentation, customs procedures, and exclusive amenities such as priority boarding and a dedicated lounge area for first-time travelers [2] Group 3: Economic Impact - The initiatives related to the "International First Flight" product are expected to enhance the willingness of the public to travel internationally, support the construction of international aviation hubs, and promote the development of the local open economy [3]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of increasing mall closures is notable, particularly in first-tier cities where high-end malls are shutting down or transferring ownership, indicating significant operational pressures despite strong consumer spending power [3][5][11] - Major malls in Shanghai, such as Pacific Department Store and Meilong Town Isetan, have closed after decades of operation, while Beijing's SKP, a flagship high-end mall, has undergone ownership changes, reflecting broader market challenges [3][5] - National retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, but cities like Shanghai and Beijing are experiencing declines of 3.1% and 2.7% respectively, highlighting a concerning trend in consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The rapid rise of e-commerce has fundamentally altered the traditional mall business model, shifting focus from product sales to experiential and lifestyle spaces, as consumers increasingly prefer online shopping for its convenience and cost-effectiveness [7][10] - Consumers are becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, prioritizing practicality and value over brand prestige, which has led to a decline in traditional mall traffic as they seek better price-performance ratios [8][10] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards service-oriented and self-indulgent experiences, with increased interest in travel, outdoor activities, and cultural experiences, further diminishing the appeal of conventional shopping malls [10][11] Group 3 - The closures of malls do not indicate a lack of consumer interest in shopping but rather a transformation in how and why consumers choose to shop, necessitating a reimagining of commercial spaces to meet diverse consumer needs [11]

Group 1 - The service-oriented consumption is expected to experience explosive growth in the future, particularly in the second half of 2025, driven by significant foreign investment and an increasing public pursuit of spiritual enjoyment [1][6] - The box office revenue of China's domestic films reached 11.345 billion yuan as of August 27, 2025, surpassing the same period in 2024, indicating the industry's resilience and sustained growth momentum [3] - The total annual box office has exceeded 38.3 billion yuan, with over 300 million viewers and a domestic film market share of 89.2%, showcasing the leading position of domestic productions [3] Group 2 - A notable number of popular films, such as "Nanjing Photo Studio," "Little Monster of Langlang Mountain," "The Stage," and "Lychee of Chang'an," have significantly contributed to the box office increase, receiving enthusiastic public support [3] - The summer film season saw a large-scale release of approximately 150 films, leading to intense competition, with standout films demonstrating considerable strength and appeal [3][5] - The changing consumer mindset reflects a trend where going to the cinema with family or friends has become a common entertainment choice, further promoting the healthy development of the film industry [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on August 29, with the consumer sector showing mixed performance, particularly strong gains in food and beverage stocks while daily retail and durable goods consumption declined [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) opened up 0.24% and fluctuated before rising 0.12% with a trading volume exceeding 13 million, showing a premium trading rate of 0.46% [1] - Notable stocks in the Consumer ETF included Haier Smart Home, which rose over 6%, along with other companies like Shenzhou International, Smoore International, Bosideng, Li Ning, Budweiser APAC, Li Auto-W, and Uni-President China [1] Group 2 - According to a press conference by the State Council Information Office on August 27, China's consumption pattern is shifting towards a balance between goods and service consumption, with upcoming policies aimed at boosting service consumption [2] - Dongguan Securities noted that the increase in broad fiscal spending in China could support consumption and infrastructure policies, which are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing domestic demand and boosting confidence [2] - GF Securities highlighted that service consumption is likely to become a fundamental direction for China's macro economy, with a shift in consumer preferences towards emotional and quality-driven spending as the Z generation matures [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market continues to strengthen, with the A-share market showing a strong upward trend and daily trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, driven by high market sentiment and supportive policies [2][10][13] - The report highlights that both domestic fundamentals and policies are favorable, with July macroeconomic data showing steady improvement in production and consumption, alongside policy measures like consumer loan interest subsidies that inject liquidity into the market [2][10][14] - The report suggests that the key focus for the market is whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize around the 3700-point level, which is seen as a critical point for future market trends [3][4][14] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the current market sentiment is robust, with the dual innovation sector likely to present short-term investment opportunities, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support [4][15] - It is recommended to adopt a "barbell strategy" in asset allocation, maintaining positions in strong sectors like telecommunications and innovative pharmaceuticals while selectively investing in sectors like photovoltaics and cultural tourism [4][15] - The report notes that the bond market is experiencing downward pressure due to a significant shift of funds towards the equity market, making it challenging for the bond market to find support in the short term [6][38] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the report states that gold is unlikely to perform well in the short term, while energy commodities like crude oil show signs of stabilization [7][45] - The recommendation for gold is to reduce positions in the short term while maintaining a watchful stance for potential long-term opportunities [8][46]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The equity market has shown signs of recovery, with A-shares rebounding after a previous decline, maintaining trading volume above 1.6 trillion [1][8][11] - Investor confidence remains high, supported by favorable CPI data and a stable domestic economic environment, while overseas markets are also showing signs of recovery due to eased tariff concerns and rising interest rate expectations [2][11][12] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - A-shares have experienced a strong upward trend, with daily average trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion, indicating a healthy market sentiment [2][11] - The policy direction is clear, with the central bank reaffirming a loose monetary environment and regulatory bodies tightening IPO approvals, which collectively support market stability [2][12] - There are structural opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in the communication sector, while "anti-involution" policies may benefit industries like solar energy and new energy [12][13] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market remains in a volatile state, with short-term policy support providing some relief, but long-term weakness persists due to the strong attraction of equity markets [33][34] - The bond market is expected to face pressure from the equity market's strong performance, which may lead to capital outflows from bonds [33][34] Group 4: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market has seen a decline, with gold performing relatively well while energy commodities like oil have experienced significant drops [39][40] - The overall outlook for the commodity market remains uncertain, with expectations of continued volatility rather than a clear upward trend [39][40]