2026 年度策略：看好内需顺周期主线，出海关注龙头 Alpha20260107 摘要 顺周期贝塔领域优先关注需求改善的出行链行业，如航空、酒店、旅游 等，受政策催化影响大，需求改善明显，带动估值提升，航空业已体现 一定弹性。 高端消费领域重点推荐免税和高端黄金珠宝，市场对涨价预期看好，具 有估值加业绩双驱动特征，如中国中免、老铺黄金和潮宏基等。 性价比大众消费当前需求边际改善不明确，供给不稀缺，复苏较晚，依 赖收入提升或 PPI、CPI 数据改善，应寻找竞争格局改善的细分行业龙头。 逆周期行业如教育，需求刚性较强，职业教育、公考景气度稳中有升， 供给侧龙头格局清晰，AI 技术应用是效率催化剂，关注华图山鼎、中国 东方教育等。 出海方面，预计 2026 年下半年有更多机会，出口具韧性，美国实际需 求好于预期，具备阿尔法属性的龙头公司将通过业绩增长驱动，如安克 创新、巨星科技、小商品城等。 Q&A 2026 年商社板块的年度策略是什么？ 2026 年商社板块的年度策略主要分为内需和出海两部分。在内需方面，重点 关注高端消费和顺周期行业；在出海方面，关注龙头企业的表现。 内需方面有哪些重点领域？ 内需方面主要分为 ...

请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 2026年1月8日 可选消费投资策略 可选消费&海外团队 证券分析师：刘文正 SAC NO: S1120524120007 目录 01 可选消费宏观观点 03 可选消费各行业观点 02 近期政策解读 1 01 可选消费宏观观点 2 对比美日等发达国家，中国服务消费仍有广阔的 增长空间 我国GDP中消费占比仍低，横向对比仍有广阔增长空间。横向对比，根据世界银行，2024年我国居民消费占GDP比例为39.93%，与美/日/韩等发达国 家相比仍处相对低位。纵向参考，美国居民消费占GDP比例在过往60年间缓步上行，2024年居民消费占GDP比例67.93%/较1960年6.78pcts;日本在 1970s经济转向内需导向，居民消费GDP占比从1970年的45.67%提升至2022年55.50%水平。与储蓄金额占GDP比例情况结合来看，2000年以来我国储蓄 金额占GDP比重远高于美/日/韩等发达国家，系居民消费习惯偏于保守的直观体现。 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 19 ...

"如果中国消费在全球的占比能够接近制造业的体量，中国将新增一个不低于10万亿美元的超大消费市场。" 在中国（海南）改革发展研究院院长、海南自由贸易港研究院院长迟福林看来，这正是"十五五"时期中国经济高质量发展的关键变量。 12月29日，第63期南方出版论坛在广州举行，迟福林以《高质量发展与全面深化改革》为题作专题报告，围绕"内需主导、消费拉动"的发展路径，系统阐释 了"十五五"时期中国经济的重点方向与改革着力点。 在他看来，在全球经济不确定性明显上升、国际经贸秩序面临深刻调整的背景下，"坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场"，将是适应发展阶段变化、增强中国 经济韧性的战略选择。 中国（海南）改革发展研究院院长、海南自由贸易港研究院院长迟福林（图源：时代周报黎广/摄） 服务型消费仍有提升空间 在迟福林看来，中国大市场由两大基本要素构成——中国制造与中国消费。前者正在通过转型升级，为全球提供创新与投资空间；后者则有潜力为世界经济 提供规模可观的新增需求。 他用一组数据作对比：2023年，中国制造业增加值占全球比重达28%，而最终消费支出占全球消费支出的比重仅为13.2%。如果中国最终消费支出的全球占 比能够与制造业大体 ...

随着人均GDP连续攀升，国内需求正从"物质型"消费，转向更注重提升生活品质的"服务型"和"体验型"消费。人们越来越关注商品和服务所承 载的文化内涵、社交体验和情感共鸣。 10月15日，消费者在山东省枣庄市一家超市选购商品。新华社发（孙中喆摄） 0:00 强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。内需是经济发展的主动力和稳定锚，向上生长、向好突破的力量在不断积蓄。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"坚持扩大内需这个战略基点""增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性"。 "物质型"消费向"服务型"和"体验型"消费转变 投资持续拉动中国经济增长 "十五五"规划建议强调，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投 资、供给和需求良性互动。 11月6日，在2025年世界互联网大会"互联网之光"博览会现场，一家企业工作人员展示人形机器人同步模仿精细动作。新华社记者 黄宗治 摄 9月15日，上海市静安区谈家桥小区迎来首批回搬居民。这是当天拍摄的谈家桥小区高层住宅楼外景。新华社记者 方喆 摄 坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，加快建设强大国内市场，不断激活内需"一池春水"，中国大市场将拥有更为强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing social security and public services to boost consumer confidence and spending in China, particularly in the context of achieving common prosperity and addressing income distribution reform [3][4][5]. Group 1: Social Security and Consumer Confidence - The experience of observing full restaurants in Australia led to the realization of the importance of a legally confirmed social security net, which enhances consumer confidence [3][20]. - There has been significant investment in basic social security in China, resulting in noticeable growth in guaranteed income, but further legal confirmation of social security is necessary to stabilize consumer expectations [3][20]. - The need for a robust social security system is highlighted as a foundation for increasing consumer spending and ensuring a sense of safety among the populace [9][20]. Group 2: Income Distribution Reform - The "two-fold doubling plan" proposed by the National Committee aims to double national income and the middle-income group, which is seen as crucial for achieving common prosperity [3][4]. - The article discusses the necessity of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents, with recent improvements noted in rural income levels [16][17]. - Future reforms should focus on increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in national income, targeting a rise from 50% to 60% over the next decade [17]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Consumption - The article suggests that increasing the service consumption ratio from 46.1% to 60% could generate an additional 40 trillion yuan in consumer demand, indicating a significant opportunity for economic growth [8]. - The current economic model is criticized for being overly reliant on traditional investment, with a call for a shift towards a consumption-driven economy [9][10]. - The importance of investing in human capital, particularly in education, healthcare, and elder care, is emphasized as a means to stimulate service consumption and improve quality of life [11][12]. Group 4: Public Services and Urbanization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the equality of basic public services, which is essential for urbanization and addressing the needs of a growing population [4][19]. - The article stresses the need for a balanced approach to investment in both physical infrastructure and human services to meet the evolving demands of society [10][14]. - Achieving basic public service equality is seen as a long-term goal that requires sustained effort and legal frameworks to ensure fairness and security for all citizens [19][21].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of strengthening the real economy, with a focus on technological self-reliance and promoting domestic demand as key tasks [2][4][6] - Consumption promotion is not merely about increasing the production of new consumer goods but involves creating more opportunities for consumption through market liberalization and public services [2][9][12] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The plan prioritizes the reinforcement of the manufacturing sector as a foundation for economic development, with technology as a crucial driver for new economic momentum [4][5][15] - The shift from investment-driven growth to a dual-engine model of investment and demand is highlighted as a significant strategic adjustment [4][6] Group 2: Consumption Dynamics - Current consumer spending in China is approximately 37%, significantly lower than the 50% target and 70% in developed countries, indicating a need for structural changes in consumption patterns [7][10] - The focus on service consumption is increasing, with a call for a balanced approach that respects individual needs and promotes diverse consumption opportunities [8][10] Group 3: Social and Cultural Factors - Encouraging personal pursuits and cultural activities, such as street dancing and singing, is seen as essential for stimulating consumption and creating a vibrant economic cycle [2][12][13] - Addressing social concerns, such as healthcare and education, is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending [11][12] Group 4: Technological and Industrial Development - The plan aims to leverage new productive forces to lead various industries towards modernization, emphasizing the integration of technology into traditional sectors [15][18] - The importance of maintaining a complete industrial chain and self-sufficiency in technology and resources is underscored as a response to global competition [19]

Economic Performance Overview - The latest economic data for October indicates a stable and improving trend in China's economy, supported by leading indicators in consumption, industry, and foreign trade [1][17] - The consumer market shows a stable upward momentum, characterized by a dual-driven new pattern of expanding lower-tier markets and leading cultural and tourism consumption [1][7] Consumer Market Insights - Offline consumption has seen significant growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a year-on-year increase of 31.2% in consumption index for third-tier and below cities, compared to 18.9% and 14.5% for first and second-tier cities respectively [1] - The "Double Festival" period (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) saw domestic travel reach 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion, marking substantial growth from the previous year [5] Infrastructure Development - In October, infrastructure construction rates and workload increased month-on-month, with the central region showing the highest growth, reinforcing its role as a "backbone" in national development [8][12] - The average operating rate of construction machinery rose by 1.4% month-on-month, with a workload increase of 5.25% [8] Industrial Production and Employment - Industrial production vitality continues to enhance, with a 0.5 percentage point year-on-year increase in the operating rate of major industrial products and a 19.8% increase in industrial park production heat index [13] - The employment demand remains strong, reflected by an 8.1% year-on-year increase in the labor price index [15] Foreign Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade vitality index, as indicated by the bonded area flow heat index, increased by 17.7% year-on-year, with 23 provinces showing improved growth rates compared to September [15] - The easing of Sino-U.S. trade relations is expected to contribute to sustained resilience in foreign trade [15]

Economic Overview - Beijing's GDP reached 3.8 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - The city plans to implement six major special actions in the fourth quarter to promote sustained economic development across various sectors [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The municipal government will allocate 74 billion yuan in fixed asset investment by the end of October 2025 [2] - A total of 155 local government special bond projects have been issued, amounting to 108.2 billion yuan [2] - The city aims to initiate 160 key projects in the fourth quarter, focusing on urban renewal and quality land supply near transit areas [2] Industry Development - Beijing will introduce new reform measures in technology transfer and talent incentives, particularly in the Zhongguancun area [3] - The city is focusing on stabilizing production in key sectors such as new energy vehicles and pharmaceuticals, while promoting digital and green economy initiatives [3][7] - The number of enterprises with technology innovation centers has reached 1,475, with over 1,000 recognized as "little giant" enterprises [6][7] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales in Beijing reached 980.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a 5.1% decline year-on-year [8] - Service consumption accounted for 59.8% of total consumption, marking the highest level in five years, indicating a shift towards service-oriented spending [8] - The city is leveraging digital technologies to enhance personalized consumption experiences, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment sectors [8] Social Development - Significant progress has been made in social welfare initiatives, including the establishment of new elderly care centers and the expansion of educational facilities [4][5] - The city plans to enhance employment support and improve living standards through various community services and infrastructure projects [5]

Core Insights - The Northwest Civil Aviation sector is focusing on enhancing service-oriented consumption and expanding the international aviation market through the "International First Flight" service product, achieving significant sales growth [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - From January 2024 to August 2025, the sales revenue of the "International First Flight" products from major airlines in Northwest China is expected to exceed 150 million yuan, contributing positively to the activation of the aviation market [1] - Airlines such as Spring Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Chang'an Airlines are offering discounted tickets and promotional coupons for first-time outbound travelers [2] Group 2: Service Innovations - The "International First Flight" service includes a comprehensive package of "ticket + service," tailored to meet the diverse needs of first-time international travelers [2] - Specific services offered include assistance with documentation, customs procedures, and exclusive amenities such as priority boarding and a dedicated lounge area for first-time travelers [2] Group 3: Economic Impact - The initiatives related to the "International First Flight" product are expected to enhance the willingness of the public to travel internationally, support the construction of international aviation hubs, and promote the development of the local open economy [3]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of increasing mall closures is notable, particularly in first-tier cities where high-end malls are shutting down or transferring ownership, indicating significant operational pressures despite strong consumer spending power [3][5][11] - Major malls in Shanghai, such as Pacific Department Store and Meilong Town Isetan, have closed after decades of operation, while Beijing's SKP, a flagship high-end mall, has undergone ownership changes, reflecting broader market challenges [3][5] - National retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, but cities like Shanghai and Beijing are experiencing declines of 3.1% and 2.7% respectively, highlighting a concerning trend in consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The rapid rise of e-commerce has fundamentally altered the traditional mall business model, shifting focus from product sales to experiential and lifestyle spaces, as consumers increasingly prefer online shopping for its convenience and cost-effectiveness [7][10] - Consumers are becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, prioritizing practicality and value over brand prestige, which has led to a decline in traditional mall traffic as they seek better price-performance ratios [8][10] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards service-oriented and self-indulgent experiences, with increased interest in travel, outdoor activities, and cultural experiences, further diminishing the appeal of conventional shopping malls [10][11] Group 3 - The closures of malls do not indicate a lack of consumer interest in shopping but rather a transformation in how and why consumers choose to shop, necessitating a reimagining of commercial spaces to meet diverse consumer needs [11]