1.1 核心矛盾 当前铅市正处于典型的"现实缺货，预期过剩"的背离阶段。强现实（支撑）： SMM数据显示，国内 铅锭社会库存已降至15个月低位，叠加冶炼厂库存同处低位，构成了铅价最坚实的防线。这一"双低"状态 直接对冲了年末消费转淡的利空。供应端呈现结构性分化：原生铅检修恢复带来增量，但再生铅企业因废电 瓶原料紧张及环保因素被迫减产，供应端并未出现所谓的"崩塌式"宽松。弱预期（压制）： 虽然短期紧 缺，但远期过剩阴云不散。市场对26年铅平衡均预期供应过剩，且海外供应增速大于需求增速。结论： 极低 的库存和再生铅的成本亏损底限制了下方空间，但缺乏新增消费驱动且远期过剩确立，价格难以形成趋势性 上涨，维持高位区间震荡格局。 铅定价逻辑 source： SMM,南华研究 元/吨 元/金属吨 国产铅精矿价格 再生精铅-平均价 SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 铅精矿加工费（国产）(右轴) 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 LME铅0:3收盘价和沪铅主力合约收盘价 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元 ...

——原料刚性约束与存量需求韧性的双重共振 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 摘要： 展望2026年，全球铅市将由紧平衡转向累库周期，但国内受再生铅原料瓶颈制约，将走出独立的成本防 御行情，呈现外弱内强特征。预计沪铅主力运行区间16200-18200元/吨左右，伦铅1950-2200美元/吨附 近。 供给侧分化显著：原生铅受副产品高利润驱动将维持高产，贡献主要增量；而再生铅受制于财税合规及 反向开票政策，废电瓶有效供给面临10%-15%折损，迫使产量增长停滞。原料端的隐性紧缩将确立再生铅成 本线为行业定价的坚实底座。 需求端步入存量主导时代，增速预计维持1.5%。两轮车新国标限重放宽至63kg将助推铅酸份额回升， 有效对冲锂电替代。全球10.2万吨的过剩量主要累积于海外，国内仅约3万吨微幅过剩，意味着国内显性库存 仍将维持低位，出口窗口难以开启。 南华期货有色金属铅2026年度展望 3.1 矿端：转向紧平衡 预测区间：沪铅16200-18200元/吨附近，伦铅1950至2200美元/吨左右 风险提示：宏观衰退，关税影响超预期，供给端扰 ...

12月17日（周三），国际铅锌研究小组(ILZSG)公布的最新月度报告显示，2025年10月全球精炼铅消费 量为111.57万吨，9月为106.92万吨。2025年1-10月全球精炼铅消费量为1093.3万吨，上年同期为1077.3 万吨。 | (单位为1,000吨) | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | 2025年1-10月 | 2024年1-10月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球矿山铝产里 | 403.0 | 392. 3 | 3,737 | 3,734 | | 全球精炼铅产里 | 1, 101. 3 | 1,055.1 | 10, 953 | 10, 773 | | 全球精炼铅消费里 | 1, 115. 7 | 1,069.2 | 10, 933 | 10, 773 | | 全球椿炼铅供需平衡 | -14.4 | -14.1 | 20 | 0 | 2025年10月全球铅市为供应短缺1.44万吨，9月为供应短缺1.41万吨。2025年1-10月全球铅市为供应过剩 2.0万吨，上年同期为供需平衡。 以下为详细数据（单位：千吨） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lead market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The cost side supports the lead price, but the supply is gradually recovering while the demand fails to meet expectations, increasing the pressure for the lead price to fall after a rise [2][67][68] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review - In September, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated greatly. It rose above 17,000 yuan/ton mid - month due to pre - holiday stocking but fell at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.36%. The center of the London lead price shifted slightly upward, with a monthly decrease of 0.55% [7] 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to July 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 257.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Overseas output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 70,000 tons [9][10] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In October, domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees decreased. The import volume of lead concentrate and silver concentrate increased in August. The demand for silver concentrate imports is expected to remain high [15][16] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead output was 7.702 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The annual output is expected to be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [18] - **Repairing smelters resume production, and electrolytic lead output recovers in October**: In September, electrolytic lead output was 327,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 335,000 tons in October [23] - **The price adjustment space of waste batteries is limited, and the improvement of smelter profits is beneficial to supply recovery**: In September, the price of waste batteries stopped falling and stabilized. The output of secondary refined lead in September was 236,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 256,100 tons in October [28][29] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead consumption was 7.676 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The annual demand is expected to reach 13.19 million tons, with a surplus of 82,000 tons [39] - **Lead battery operation is stable, and the peak consumption season is weak**: In September, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises was slightly better year - on - year but still did not meet expectations. After the holiday, the operating rate will gradually return to the pre - holiday level [42][43] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures suppress battery exports**: In August, the export volume of refined lead increased, but it is expected to remain low in September. The import volume of refined lead increased, and the export of batteries was under pressure [44][45] - **The terminal sector demand growth is slow, and sector performance is differentiated**: The demand for lead batteries in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors is relatively stable, and the demand in the energy storage sector is expected to grow [57][58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from a High Level - In September, LME inventory continued to decline from a high level, and social inventory also dropped from a high level. However, inventory is expected to increase again due to the supply - demand mismatch [63][66] 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The lead ore shortage situation is difficult to ease in the fourth quarter, supporting the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is expected to increase in October, but the demand is less than expected. Overall, the lead price is under increasing pressure to fall after a rise [67][68]