"再通胀"政策意图推升长债压力 市场分析人士指出，政府的财政政策倾向是推高长期收益率的关键因素。Mizuho Securities Co. 经济学家 Yusuke Matsuo 在周一的一份报告中写 道，只要市场参与者继续感知到高市早苗政府具有"再通胀"的政策意图，日本长期国债收益率就可能持续面临上行压力。 基准10年期日本国债收益率周一一度上涨5个基点至2.12%，创下自1999年以来的最高水平。与此同时，20年期和30年期国债收益率也跟随走高。 此次收益率上行紧随美国长期国债的抛售潮，交易员们正重新评估地缘政治风险上升背景下，全球防务支出增加对债券市场的影响。 日本首相高市早苗领导的政府已于上月批准了总额达122.3万亿日元（约合7800亿美元）的预算案，其中防务支出将在明年升至创纪录水平。与此 同时，汇率市场的波动进一步加剧了投资者的不安。尽管日元在经历了连续四年的下跌后，于2025年对美元小幅上涨不到1%，但其整体疲软态势 引发了市场对日本央行控制通胀行动滞后的担忧。 在财政扩张与通胀压力加剧的双重隐忧下，日本国债市场新年伊始即遭遇抛售压力，长期国债收益率显著攀升。 不过，Matsuo 也指出，部分压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is expected to adopt a more proactive stance on yen intervention to mitigate inflationary pressures caused by a weak yen, with intervention thresholds potentially lower than the widely anticipated 160 yen per dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Government Intervention - Takuji Aida, a member of the government advisory panel, indicated that the Kishida administration will actively intervene in the foreign exchange market, reflecting concerns over inflation [1]. - The Japanese authorities have previously intervened in the market when the yen fell below the 160 yen mark, which has been considered a threshold for intervention [2]. - Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the government would respond appropriately to excessive currency fluctuations, with currency intervention being one of the options [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The yen recently fell to a 10-month low against the dollar, surpassing the 157 yen mark, prompting increased verbal intervention from Japanese authorities [1]. - Aida noted that Japan has ample foreign exchange reserves, providing sufficient conditions for intervention actions [1][6]. - The market had previously expected intervention to occur only after the yen reached 160, but Aida's comments suggest that action could be taken sooner if volatility increases [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Since Kishida's appointment in October, market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes have put pressure on the yen [5]. - The Bank of Japan is set to hold its next policy meeting on December 19, where Governor Kazuo Ueda discussed the gradual withdrawal of previous monetary easing policies with Kishida [5]. - Aida emphasized the government's concern that a weak yen could exacerbate inflationary pressures, despite Kishida's support for re-inflation policies [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Spending Priorities - Aida also mentioned that Japan should prioritize investments in areas such as artificial intelligence, naval frigates, and defense, even if it requires issuing bonds [6]. - The new government aims to balance stable economic growth with inflation control [6]. - Aida reiterated that Japan's substantial foreign exchange reserves support intervention actions, providing the government with policy space to address currency fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a 10-month low, primarily due to the diminishing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike in December [2][4][6]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation Details - The yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell to the range of 157.5 to 157.9 yen, marking the first time since January 15 that it has reached this level [4]. - Compared to the exchange rate of 147 yen per dollar before Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, the yen has depreciated by approximately 10 yen [4]. - The yen has also weakened against the euro, reaching a rate of 181.5 to 181.9 yen per euro, setting a new low since the euro's introduction in 1999 [4]. Group 2: Factors Behind Yen Depreciation - The acceleration of yen depreciation is attributed to multiple factors, including the declining probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased buying of the dollar and selling of the yen [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a strong likelihood of maintaining the current policy rate, which has contributed to the market's shift in sentiment regarding future rate cuts [6][7]. - The US government shutdown has obscured the actual economic situation, further diminishing expectations for a rate cut [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Data - Market predictions for the Federal Reserve's policy rate have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 50% to 30% [7]. - The upcoming economic data releases, including US employment figures and retail sales, are crucial for assessing economic trends before the December Federal Reserve meeting [8]. - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike is under scrutiny, with current market expectations for a December rate increase at around 40%, down from approximately 60% earlier in November [9]. Group 4: Government and Central Bank Stance - There is a lack of heightened vigilance from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan regarding currency intervention, contributing to the market's inclination to sell the yen [10]. - Recent discussions among Japanese officials did not address the exchange rate specifically, leading to disappointment among market participants who anticipated a stronger stance against yen depreciation [10].