Summary of Conference Call on Corn Market Analysis Industry Overview - The conference focused on the corn market in China, discussing supply and demand changes, import dynamics, and price trends [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increase in Corn Imports**: China began significantly increasing corn imports starting from the 2020-2021 crop year, with imports rising from 7.6 million tons in the 2019-2020 crop year to 29.5 million tons in the 2020-2021 crop year, indicating a substantial increase in reliance on imported corn [2][3]. 2. **Decline in Import Proportion**: By the 2023-2024 crop year, the proportion of imported corn decreased significantly to 13%, down from a range of 50% to 70% previously, with a shift in sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil [3][4]. 3. **Current Import Levels**: The total import volume is expected to stabilize around 7.2 million tons, similar to the 2019-2020 levels, with no significant drivers for exceeding import quotas [4][5]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs on Imports**: The increase in import tariffs, which rose to 50%, has rendered corn imports unprofitable, leading to a significant reduction in import activity [5][15]. 5. **Domestic Price Trends**: The overall price trend for domestic corn is expected to rise, supported by supply-demand dynamics, although this may take time to materialize [6][7]. 6. **Market Conditions**: The current market is characterized by a balance in supply and demand, with sufficient grain supply preventing significant price increases [8][9]. 7. **Storage and Inventory Levels**: High inventory levels at northern ports are contributing to a lack of confidence in price increases, with expectations that inventory will need to be reduced before prices can rise significantly [9][10]. 8. **Feed Demand**: The consumption of corn for feed is projected at 170 million tons, with deep processing demand at approximately 7.8 million tons, indicating stable demand levels [20][21]. 9. **Wheat and Corn Dynamics**: The relationship between wheat and corn prices is complex, with wheat prices expected to remain stable due to government support and the potential for wheat to substitute corn in feed [12][19]. 10. **Future Considerations**: Attention will be needed on the spring planting situation and potential changes in planting areas, which could impact future corn supply [17][18]. Other Important Insights - The analysis highlighted the importance of monitoring the overall agricultural policy environment and market conditions, as these factors will influence both corn and wheat prices moving forward [12][19]. - The discussion also touched on the implications of potential changes in import dynamics and domestic production levels, which could affect the overall corn market landscape in China [15][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the corn market, focusing on import trends, pricing dynamics, and the interplay between domestic and international factors affecting supply and demand.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It suggests that the prices of most agricultural products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and seasonal patterns, and provides corresponding investment outlooks and strategies [1][2]. Summary by Related Sections Research Views - **Corn**: This week, the May contract of corn reduced its positions and adjusted. Affected by the spot market, the May and July contracts declined in tandem, and the basis returned. The long and short main forces of the May contract continued to shift to the July contract, which became the main contract. The spot market saw an increase in the import cost of corn due to tariff hikes. Although the futures market did not continue to rise recently, the prices in the production areas were relatively firm, and some deep - processing enterprises raised the purchase price of corn. The price of corn in North China remained generally stable, with slight adjustments in individual areas. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises increased, and the price remained stable. The prices of some deep - processing enterprises in Hebei and Henan increased slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The price of corn in the sales areas was generally stable, with a 20 - yuan/ton decrease in Qinzhou Port. Technically, the 2300 - yuan/ton integer mark of the July contract was a recent intensive trading area. It is expected that the tariff increase, the strengthening of the agricultural product sentiment, and the firm spot price will provide phased support for the futures price, and the July contract will maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to the bullish USDA monthly report. The April supply - demand report showed that the US soybean production and exports in the 24/25 season remained unchanged, but the ending inventory was estimated to be 375 million bushels, lower than the March estimate of 380 million bushels. Globally, the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina remained unchanged, and the global soybean production was adjusted down by 1.8 million tons to 420.58 million tons, while the ending inventory was adjusted up by 60,000 tons to 122.47 million tons. The net weekly export sales of US soybeans increased by 172,300 tons, lower than expected. In the domestic market, the protein meal declined, and most commodities rose. As the impact of tariffs on the market decreased, the increase in the price of US soybeans and the higher import cost supported the market. The trading strategy is to think of the soybean meal as oscillating with a bullish bias [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose, following the upward trend of the surrounding markets. The MPOB monthly report was bearish, showing that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in March increased to 1.56 million tons due to the increase in production and a significant increase in imports, offsetting the impact of increased demand. In the USDA monthly report, due to the decline in production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the palm oil production was expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million tons. Canadian canola closed slightly higher due to the optimistic demand outlook. Tight inventory and continuous demand encouraged farmers' sales levels. The price of about 650 Canadian dollars per ton also encouraged farmers to continue planting rapeseed crops. The April supply - demand report predicted that the global rapeseed production in the 24/25 season would be 85.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.616 million tons, and the ending inventory would be 9.018 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.433 million tons. In the domestic market, the futures price of oils rose, and the market's reaction to the tariff impact was dull. With the overnight reports being mixed and the macro - economic outlook improving, the oils are expected to stop falling. The operation strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the egg futures adjusted under the influence of surrounding commodities. The 2025 contract weakened after opening and rebounded at a low level in the afternoon, finally closing down 0.42% at 3117 yuan/500 kg; the 2509 contract closed down 0.46%. According to the Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.24 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production areas, the price of pink - shell eggs in Tianjin remained flat at 3.15 yuan/jin, and the price of brown - shell eggs in Heishan market increased by 0.1 yuan/jin to 3 yuan/jin. In the sales areas, the price of brown - shell eggs in Puxi and Guangzhou remained flat at 3.45 yuan/jin and 3.48 yuan/jin respectively. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased compared with the previous day, the terminal consumption was normal, and traders purchased according to demand. The egg prices in the sales areas were stable with some increases and individual decreases. Based on the current situation of the egg - laying chicken breeding market, it is relatively certain that the egg supply will increase in the future. On the other hand, seasonal demand is beneficial to egg prices. In the medium and long term, there is a high probability of a weak rebound in egg prices. In the short term, the futures price is greatly affected by the feed end. It is advisable to wait and see for now and look for future operation opportunities after the surrounding commodities stabilize [1][2]. - **Pigs**: This week, the futures price of pigs closed with a small positive line, and the price range steadily increased. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the United States had a positive impact on the agricultural product sector. The prices of feed raw materials such as corn increased, providing support for pig prices. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price increased slightly and steadily. In the Henan pig market, the average slaughter price was 14.67 yuan/kg. The mainstream slaughter prices of large - scale farms' 115 - 130 - kg improved pigs were 14.70 - 14.90 yuan/kg; the mainstream slaughter prices of medium - and small - scale farms' 115 - 130 - kg improved pigs were about 14.40 yuan/kg, with a high price of 14.60 yuan/kg; the slaughter price of 150 - 155 - kg large pigs was 14.60 yuan/kg. In the downstream slaughter market, the mainstream purchase price of medium - and small - scale farms' improved standard pigs by slaughter enterprises was about 14.40 yuan/kg, with an average weight of 115 - 125 kg. In the futures market, the short - term pig price is boosted by the increase in raw material prices, while the medium - term supply pressure continues to influence the market. In April, the game between the macro - economic situation and the fundamentals continues, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2]. Market Information - It is expected that the global vegetable oil production in the 2024/25 season will be reduced by 900,000 tons to 228.1 million tons, as the increase in soybean oil production is offset by the decline in palm oil production. The palm oil production is expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million tons due to the decline in production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand [3]. - The USDA maintained the expected corn production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season at 50 million tons, and the market expected 49.3 million tons; it maintained the expected corn production in Brazil at 126 million tons, and the market expected 125.91 million tons. It also maintained the expected soybean production in Argentina at 49 million tons, and the market expected 48.79 million tons; it maintained the expected soybean production in Brazil at 169 million tons, and the market expected 169.11 million tons [3]. - The USDA April supply - demand report on US soybeans showed that the expected planting area, harvested area, yield per acre, production, and export volume in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged compared with March. The total supply increased by 5 million bushels to 4734 million bushels, the crushing volume increased by 10 million bushels to 2420 million bushels, the total consumption increased by 10 million bushels to 4359 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][17][18][22].