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油脂油料早报-20250716
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 13:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean crush volume in June was higher than market expectations, while the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. The crush capacity reached a record level, but was not fully utilized due to the oversupply of soybean meal [1]. - Brazil's estimated soybean and soybean meal exports in July have increased compared to previous forecasts [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 showed a decline according to two different inspection agencies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean crush: In June, NOPA member units crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans, a 3.7% decrease from May and a 5.8% increase from June 2024. The average forecast of eight analysts was 185.195 million bushels. The daily crush volume in June was 6.19 million bushels, down from 6.22 million bushels in May [1]. - US soybean oil inventory: As of June 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member units dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% decline from the end of May and a 15.8% decrease from the same period last year. Analysts expected it to rise slightly to 1.374 billion pounds [1]. - US soybean meal and soybean oil production in May: The soybean meal production was 4,417,754 short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.25336 billion pounds [1]. - Brazil's export forecast: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons (previously 11.93 million tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.25 million tons (previously 2.19 million tons) [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports: ITS data showed a 6.2% decline in palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 compared to the same period in June, while AmSpec data showed a 5.29% decrease [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 9 - 15, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis The report mentions protein meal basis but does not provide specific data [3]. Fat Basis The report mentions fat basis but does not provide specific data [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread The report mentions fat and oil futures spread but does not provide specific data [8]
油脂油料早报-20250701
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 04:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean inventory in the quarter ending June 1, 2025, was higher than expected, while the planting area was lower than expected, and the good-to-excellent rate was also lower than expected [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports showed varying degrees of increase in June 2025 according to different institutions' data [1]. - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, but the export tax remained unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. 2025 Q2 soybean inventory was 1.007664 billion bushels, higher than the estimated 0.98 billion bushels. Farm - in inventory was 0.4117 billion bushels, and farm - out inventory was 0.595964 billion bushels [1]. - The estimated U.S. 2025 soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the market estimate of 83.655 million acres, and the 2024 actual planting area was 87.05 million acres [1]. - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the expected 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [1]. - A private exporter reported selling 204,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - As of the week ending June 26, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 224,787 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 45.851787 million tons, compared with 41.554272 million tons in the same period last year [1]. - The estimated U.S. May 2025 soybean crushing volume was 204.7 million bushels, 1.1% higher than April and 6.8% higher than May 2024. The estimated May 31 soybean oil inventory was 1.871 billion pounds, down 5.3% from the end of April and 14.5% from May 2024 [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's June 2025 palm oil exports increased 4.3% month - on - month; ITS reported a 4.7% increase; SGS reported an 11.74% increase [1]. - Indonesia raised the July reference price of crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton from $856.38 in June, with the export tax remaining at $52 per ton [1]. Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit No detailed information provided [2]. Futures Price Spreads of Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [5]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 24 - 30, 2025 [3]. Basis of Protein Meal and Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [3][7].