Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: March 29, 2026 - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Fan Yuanyuan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a week of sharp increase, the inversion of import price difference has been alleviated, and the price advantage of imported coal has reappeared. With the emergence of auction failures in the production areas, there is a callback pressure on coal prices in the short term. In April, the coal market is intertwined with long and short factors, and the price may fluctuate in the range of 730 - 780 yuan/ton. In the medium and long term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue, and the demand for coal in the power system will peak and gradually decline during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It is expected that the central price of coal will rise this year, and the long-term agreement price still has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Price - **Domestic Price**: As of March 27, the 5800 kcal index in Yulin was 649.0 yuan/ton, up 40.0 yuan/ton week-on-week; the 5500 kcal index in Ordos was 577.0 yuan/ton, up 46.0 yuan/ton week-on-week; the 5500 kcal index in Datong was 620.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton week-on-week. At Qinhuangdao Port, the price of 5500 kcal coal was reported at 763.0 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the price of 5000 kcal coal was reported at 683.0 yuan/ton, up 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - **Import Price**: The CCI imported 4700 index was reported at 86.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week-on-week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was reported at 70.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week-on-week [7] 2. Supply - **Domestic Production (Weekly)**: From March 19 - 25, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three Western Regions was 93.91%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from the previous period. The factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the withdrawal of backward production capacity, the possible withdrawal or conversion of uncompleted approved increased production capacity into reserve capacity, and the disposal of increased production capacity that fails to fulfill the thermal coal contract [13] - **Domestic Production (Monthly)**: In January - February 2026, the national raw coal production was 762.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. The production in the main producing areas still maintained a growth trend. The top three provinces in terms of production were Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, with a total production of 541.508 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.90% and accounting for 70.98% of the national total [14] - **Seaborne Coal**: The arrival volume of imported coal at ports is weak, and the freight rate has回调 from a high level [17] - **Import (Monthly)**: In January - February 2026, the national imported coal was 77.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In February, the import volume was 30.9427 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.95%. In January, the import volume was 46.2796 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 10.82%. Since 2026, the coal exports from Indonesia have remained weak, with many policy interferences [23] 3. Inventory - **Mine**: The inventory at the production area decreased month-on-month [25] - **Port**: The northern ports continued to accumulate inventory, but the accumulation rate slowed down. As of March 27, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 27.09 million tons, an increase of 1.59 million tons week-on-week [2] 4. Transportation - The port inflow increased and the outflow decreased. The average daily inflow of ports this week was 1.4354 million tons, an increase of 34,600 tons month-on-month, and the average daily outflow was 1.1412 million tons, a decrease of 138,400 tons month-on-month [2] 5. Demand - **Power Demand**: The inventory of coastal power plants has decreased. In the first two months of this year, the total social electricity consumption in China increased by 6.1% year-on-year. From January - February, the thermal power generation increased by 3.3% year-on-year. In the next 10 days, there will be continuous rainy and significantly more precipitation in the southeast of Northwest China, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and the northeast of Inner Mongolia, etc. [40][48][51] - **Non - power Demand**: The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% month-on-month, and the clinker production capacity utilization rate was 58.83% [59]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Fanyuan Yuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The thermal coal market shows a pattern of "not weak in the off - season". The escalation of the US - Iran conflict drives up overseas coal prices, causing a significant price inversion between imported and domestic coal. Domestic coal prices stop falling and rebound despite the off - season [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. Coal demand in the power system will peak and decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Supply - side policies aim for stable production and prices, and it is expected that the coal price center will rise this year with support at long - term agreement levels [2]. Summary of Each Section 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Price - **Domestic Price**: As of March 20, the 5800 kcal index in Yulin was 609.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Ordos was 531.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Datong was 593.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. At Qinhuangdao Port, the 5500 kcal price was 736.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the 5000 kcal price was 654.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - **Import Price**: The CCI imported 4700 index was 86.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was 70.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. 2. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Supply Domestic Production (Weekly) - Fenwei statistics show that from March 12 - 18, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West region was 91.98%, up 1.94 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - Factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the handling of uncompleted nuclear - increased production capacity, etc. [16] Domestic Production (Monthly) - In January - February 2026, the national raw coal output was 762.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The top three producing provinces were Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, with a combined output of 541.508 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.90% and accounting for 70.98% of the national total [17]. Seaborne Coal - The arrival volume of imported coal at ports has been continuously weakening [20]. Import (Monthly) - In January - February 2026, the national imported coal was 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In February, the import volume was 30.9427 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.95%, while in January, it was 46.2796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.82% [27]. - Since 2026, Indonesian coal exports have been sluggish due to policy interferences such as slow RKAB approvals, a planned production quota reduction, and potential export tariff regulations [27]. 3. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Inventory Mine Inventory - The origin inventory increased month - on - month [29]. Port Inventory - The northern ports continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 20, the inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) totaled 25.50 million tons, an increase of 0.94 million tons week - on - week. With the subsequent maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the shipping volume from northern ports will be affected, and the inventory accumulation slope will slow down [2]. 4. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Transportation - The inbound and outbound volumes at ports increased [39]. 5. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Demand Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants increased, and the inventory was relatively high [41]. - In the next 10 days (March 21 - 30), there will be more rainy days in the Jiangnan region, and the temperature in the central and eastern regions will be relatively high [47]. - In the first two months of this year, China's total social power consumption increased by 6.1% year - on - year [48]. - In January - February, thermal power generation increased by 3.3% year - on - year [51]. - The precipitation in the southwest region is relatively low [53]. Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is relatively weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains at a high level. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 79.78% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate was 55.14% [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term coal market is weakly adjusted, and the impact of abnormal weather should be noted. The coal price may be weakly volatile in the short term, and the follow - up trend depends on the pre - Spring Festival coal mine shutdown, trader shipments, and terminal restocking rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, the long - term agreement price still provides support, and the reasonable coal price range of (570 - 770) has great reference value [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Domestic coal prices show a mixed trend. As of January 16, the Yulin 5800 - kcal index was 596.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - kcal index was 537.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - kcal index was 569.0 yuan/ton, down 12.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term coal price has limited upward and downward drivers, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather and policies. The overseas coal market is stable [9]. 2. Supply 2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - As of January 14, the capacity utilization rate of 160 coal mines was 90.32% (previous value 88.24%), and the output was 1.6457 million tons (previous value 1.607 million tons). As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 90.6% (previous value 90.3%); the output was 3.8269 million tons (previous value 3.8164 million tons) [16]. 2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 42.6793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 440.1647 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In 2026, potential factors affecting coal production capacity include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved increased production capacity into reserve capacity, and the disposal of increased production capacity that fails to fulfill coal - power contracts [24]. 2.3 Import (Weekly) - As of January 9, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.19 million tons [25]. 2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 5.8597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The higher - than - expected import volume was mainly due to the "rush to export" phenomenon of overseas suppliers affected by the adjustment of Indonesia's export tariff policy and the advantages of overseas coal imports due to the short - term tightening of domestic supply and the decline of domestic coal prices at the end of the year [32]. 3. Inventory 3.1 Mine Inventory - As of January 14, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 409,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. As of January 16, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 283,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons [37]. 3.2 Port Inventory - The de - stocking rhythm of northern ports has slowed down, and the overall inventory is still at a high level. As of January 16, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 24.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons. The average daily inbound volume at ports this week was 1.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.091 million tons, and the average daily outbound volume was 1.0576 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0128 million tons [3][38]. 4. Transportation - The inbound volume at ports has increased, and the number of anchored ships has risen [39]. 5. Demand 5.1 Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of power plants has limited support, and attention should be paid to the terminal restocking rhythm. In the next 10 days (January 17 - 26), cold air will strengthen, and the daily coal consumption may be boosted. From January to November, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of the secondary industry has declined. The overall power generation has decreased, with both thermal and hydropower generation declining. The precipitation in the southwest region has weakened [41][49][50]. 5.2 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak. This week, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.83 percentage points to 40.7% week - on - week. The demand for chemical coal remains high [61][67]. 5.3 Total Demand - In November, the demand for thermal coal was weak, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price centers of thermal coal at the pithead and ports are moving down, and the decline may be tightened due to market influence [3] - The domestic supply contraction of thermal coal has expanded, and it may enter the seasonal production - reduction period at the mine end [5] - The total global coal departure volume has increased month - on - month, with the departure volumes from Indonesia and Russia rebounding [15] - The total amount of coal drifting to China is relatively stable, and the port price of imported coal has declined [18] - The coal demand for power generation has decreased slightly month - on - month, and other demands provide weak support [25] - The demand for chemical coal is temporarily stable in the short term [31] - The total social power generation has decreased, and both thermal and hydropower generation have declined [38] - The utilization of wind and water energy has weakened month - on - month [41] - In November, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while the coal consumption for heating and other purposes increased rapidly [44] - The mine inventory of thermal coal has increased month - on - month, and the demand absorption capacity is limited [47] - The inventory at northern ports has increased, and the market demand for thermal coal at ports has slightly eased recently [50] - The short - term supply - demand structure of transport capacity is still in a loose pattern, and the outbound volume has rebounded from a low level [55] - The thermal coal freight index is fluctuating at a low level, and the upward support is limited [57] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - The price centers of thermal coal at the pithead and ports are moving down, and the decline may be tightened due to market influence [3] 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of December 26, the weekly output of thermal coal from 462 domestic sample mines was about 36.428 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%, and the month - on - month change in capacity utilization decreased. The 462 sample mines involve a production capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the total production capacity of national thermal coal mines. In November 2025, the total raw coal production was 426.793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The production in Shaanxi increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [5][7][8] - **Global Supply**: The total global coal departure volume has increased month - on - month, with the departure volumes from Indonesia and Russia rebounding [15] - **Import to China**: The total amount of coal drifting to China is relatively stable, and the port price of imported coal has declined. As of December 19, the main arrival volume of thermal coal this week was 10.6801 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 259,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.6964 million tons [18][21] 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - **Power Coal Demand**: This week, the coal consumption for power generation decreased slightly month - on - month. The coal demand for construction, metallurgy, and chemical industries provides weak support. In the power sector, the average daily coal consumption of 25 provinces this week totaled 5.98 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons, and the average coal supply totaled 6.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons. The average daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces this week was 2.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7,100 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 89,000 tons. The average daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces this week was 3.859 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 379,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 156,000 tons. The total social power generation rebounded month - on - month in November, with significant declines in the total thermal and hydropower generation, and a month - on - month increase in the power generation from wind, nuclear, and solar energy [30] - **Chemical Coal Demand**: The demand for chemical coal is temporarily stable in the short term [31] - **Power Demand in Different Regions**: In coastal eight - province power plants, the short - term inventory reduction rate has increased due to cooling. In inland 17 - province power plants, the inventory is high, and the coal consumption rate has slowed down [33][36] - **Demand Substitution**: The total social power generation has decreased, and both thermal and hydropower generation have declined. The utilization of wind and water energy has weakened month - on - month [38][41] - **Total Demand**: In November, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while the coal consumption for heating and other purposes increased rapidly [44] 3.4 Thermal Coal Inventory - **Mine Inventory**: As of December 26, the mine inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises was 3.037 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 351,000 tons [47] - **Port Inventory**: The inventory at northern ports has increased, and the market demand for thermal coal at ports has slightly eased recently [50] 3.5 Thermal Coal Transportation - **Transport Capacity and Volume**: The short - term supply - demand structure of transport capacity is still in a loose pattern, and the outbound volume has rebounded from a low level [55] - **Freight Index**: The thermal coal freight index is fluctuating at a low level, and the upward support is limited [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the power coal industry, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and transportation conditions. It indicates that the short - term trading sentiment of power coal pit - mouth prices has weakened, while import coal prices are rising. Supply shows a mixed picture with domestic production having different trends in different time - scales, and global and regional supply also varying. Demand is influenced by multiple factors including power consumption, industrial use, and energy substitution. Inventory levels are changing, and transportation conditions involve aspects like port operations and freight rates [4][6][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal Fundamentals Data - Power coal pit - mouth prices are stable in the short - term, and trading sentiment has weakened, while import coal prices are rising [4] - Domestic supply of power coal has expanded on a weekly basis. As of November 14, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.465 million tons, a 0.03% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly increased. The 462 sample mines account for about 65% of the national total capacity [6][11] - In October 2025, the total production of raw coal was 406.75 million tons, a 1.15% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year decrease [12] - The global port coal out - bound volume decreased on a weekly basis, but Australian coal out - bound volume continued to rise [14] - The total amount of coal floating to China has increased [16] - As of November 7, the main arrival volume of power coal was 7.3135 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5433 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4683 million tons [19] 3.2 Power Coal Demand - This week, the demand for power coal for electricity consumption increased on a weekly basis. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces was 5.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 million tons. The average coal supply was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons. The average daily consumption of coastal eight provinces was 1.8199 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.017 million tons, and that of inland 17 provinces was 3.2927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1117 million tons [25] - The demand for chemical coal decreased on a weekly basis [26] - The coal supply of coastal eight - province power plants increased, and they started to replenish stocks. The inventory of inland 17 - province power plants steadily increased [28][34] - In October, the total social power generation decreased, and the new - energy power generation capacity declined. However, the wind and nuclear power generation assistance increased on a weekly basis [25][37] - In September, the coal consumption for electricity and metallurgy decreased, while that for chemical, construction, and heating remained relatively stable [42] 3.3 Power Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the mine inventory of power coal sample enterprises was 3.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.971 million tons [44] - The ports in the Bohai Rim region had a slight inventory build - up, and the port power coal market was in a stalemate [47] 3.4 Power Coal Transportation - The port coal intake decreased, while the out - take data continued to rise rapidly. Long - term contract demand may be maintained [53] - The power coal freight index slightly declined, the international dry - bulk freight increased, and the short - term transportation cost remained at a high level [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for thermal coal has increased this week, with obvious recovery in chemical and power demands, while the supply has shown a mixed trend, with domestic production and imports showing different changes [26][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Thermal coal pit - mouth quotes continue to rise [4]. 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - **Domestic supply**: As of October 10, the output of 462 sample mines was about 3.8703 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%, and the capacity utilization rate continued to shrink slightly. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The raw coal production in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased simultaneously [6][11]. - **Global supply**: The total global coal departure volume has decreased rapidly, and the departure volume from Russia has shrunk significantly. The total volume of coal floating to China has decreased month - on - month. As of October 3, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.291 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.1314 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1501 million tons [18][20][22]. 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - **Overall demand**: This week, the demand for power, metallurgy, construction, and chemicals has increased month - on - month, and the demand for thermal coal has increased month - on - month [29]. - **Sector - specific demand**: - **Chemical industry**: The demand has recovered month - on - month [30]. - **Power industry**: The inventory of power plants in 8 coastal provinces has decreased, and the coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces has increased month - on - month. The power generation of new energy has weakened, and the thermal power generation has increased year - on - year [32][34][36]. 3.4 Thermal Coal Demand Substitution - The contribution of alternative energy has weakened [39]. 3.5 Total Thermal Coal Demand - The electricity demand provides obvious support, and the coal consumption for construction and metallurgy has increased month - on - month [41]. 3.6 Thermal Coal Inventory - **Mine inventory**: As of October 10, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 3.184 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.63 million tons [43]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of 55 ports has increased slightly [46]. 3.7 Thermal Coal Transportation - The thermal coal freight index has recovered to mid - September, showing a fluctuating upward trend [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pit - mouth quotation of thermal coal continues to rise, and the supply and demand situation shows certain fluctuations. The domestic supply of thermal coal is increasing, while the demand side has different trends in various sectors, with power demand weakening and chemical demand rising. The inventory situation also varies among different entities, and the transportation and freight index show corresponding changes [4][6][30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - The pit - mouth quotation of thermal coal continues to rise [4]. 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of September 26, the output of 462 sample mines was about 39.557 million tons, a 0.5% week - on - week increase, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. The raw coal production in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased synchronously [6][12]. - **Global Supply**: The total global port departure volume increased slightly, with the shipment of Australian coal rising. The volume of coal floating to China increased mainly from Russia. As of September 19, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 7.9283 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 482,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 413,200 tons [19][21][23]. 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - **Power Demand**: It weakened significantly. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 490,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 330,000 tons. The inventory of coastal eight - province power plants increased slightly, and the inland 17 - province power plants accumulated inventory [27][30][33]. - **Metallurgical and Construction Demand**: The blast furnace start - up production decreased, and the support of metallurgical demand weakened. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, but the construction demand decreased significantly [28]. - **Chemical Demand**: It increased month - on - month [31]. 3.4 Thermal Coal Demand Substitution - The new energy power generation capacity weakened, and the thermal power generation increased year - on - year. The contribution of alternative energy sources decreased [40][43]. 3.5 Total Thermal Coal Demand - The power consumption demand provided obvious support, and the coal consumption for construction and metallurgy increased month - on - month [45]. 3.6 Thermal Coal Inventory - **Mine Inventory**: As of September 26, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 3.151 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.779 million tons, still at a relatively high historical level [47]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of 55 ports decreased slightly [50]. 3.7 Thermal Coal Transportation - The freight index of thermal coal decreased slightly [53].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: September 21, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of thermal coal at ports has slightly rebounded. Supply has generally increased, while demand has shown a mixed trend, with power demand weakening and chemical demand rising. Inventory levels vary, and the freight index has moved upward. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - **Price**: The spot price of thermal coal at ports has slightly rebounded [4] - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 19, the output of 462 sample mines was about 39.347 million tons, a 1.7% week - on - week increase. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease [6][9] - **Supply - Global**: The global coal port departure volume has slightly increased. The volume of coal floating to China has increased, mainly from Australia. As of September 12, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 470,000 tons [11][13][16] - **Demand - Power**: Power demand has weakened significantly. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 370,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [20][22] - **Demand - Chemical**: Chemical demand has rebounded month - on - month [23] - **Demand - Substitute**: The power generation capacity of new energy has weakened, while thermal power generation has increased year - on - year. The contribution of alternative energy has increased [32][35] - **Total Demand**: Power consumption demand provides obvious support, while coal consumption in construction and metallurgy has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [38] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 2.963 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.528 million tons. The inventory at Bohai Rim ports has slightly decreased [41][44] - **Transportation**: The center of the thermal coal freight index has moved upward [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the thermal coal industry, covering aspects such as supply, demand, inventory, and transportation. It shows that thermal coal port spot prices have slightly rebounded, supply has shown mixed trends with some increases and some contractions, demand has weakened in certain sectors like power generation, and inventory levels vary across different entities. The influence of alternative energy sources on thermal coal demand is also significant. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Thermal coal port spot quotes have slightly rebounded [4] 3.2 Supply - **Domestic production**: In the last two months, domestic production has contracted year - on - year, but this week's supply has increased week - on - week. As of September 12, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.682 million tons, a 2.7% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly recovered. These 462 samples involve a capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the country's total thermal coal mine capacity. In July 2025, the total raw coal production was 380.987 million tons, a 10% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year decrease, with synchronous declines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia [6][8][9] - **Global supply**: The global coal port outbound volume has contracted week - on - week. The increase in coal floating to China is mainly from Australia. As of September 5, the main inbound volume of thermal coal was 8.1653 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,600 tons but a year - on - year increase of 384,600 tons [11][13][15] 3.3 Demand - **Power generation demand**: It has weakened significantly. The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased, weakening the metallurgical demand support. Although the cement clinker capacity utilization rate has slightly increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the construction demand has decreased significantly. This week, the metallurgical, construction, and chemical demands have increased week - on - week, but the power generation demand is relatively weak year - on - year. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 90,000 tons. The average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces was 2.335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69,000 tons but a week - on - week increase of 35,700 tons. The average daily consumption of 17 inland provinces was 3.3517 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 394,100 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 124,700 tons [19][20][21] - **Chemical demand**: It has rebounded week - on - week [22] - **Demand substitution**: New energy power generation has significantly contributed, and thermal power generation has decreased year - on - year. Alternative energy sources have enhanced their contribution [32][35] - **Total demand**: Power consumption demand provides obvious support, while coal consumption in construction and metallurgy has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [38] 3.4 Inventory - **Mine inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 3.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 1.724 million tons. Although it has decreased significantly, it is still at a relatively high historical level [41] - **Bohai Rim port inventory**: It has slightly increased [44] 3.5 Transportation - The center of the thermal coal freight index has moved upward [47]