国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0023649 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 动力煤产业链周度报告 01 动力煤基本面数据 动力煤坑口及港口价格重心下移，跌幅或受市场影响收紧 资料来源 Wind 、Mysteel iFind国泰君安期货研究所 ： 资料来源： Wind 、Mysteel、iFind、国泰君安期货研究所 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5500) 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5000) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 元/吨 大同南郊动力煤-5500-车板含税价 鄂尔多斯-电煤-5500-坑口含税价 榆林烟煤末-6000-坑口含税 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the power coal industry, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and transportation conditions. It indicates that the short - term trading sentiment of power coal pit - mouth prices has weakened, while import coal prices are rising. Supply shows a mixed picture with domestic production having different trends in different time - scales, and global and regional supply also varying. Demand is influenced by multiple factors including power consumption, industrial use, and energy substitution. Inventory levels are changing, and transportation conditions involve aspects like port operations and freight rates [4][6][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal Fundamentals Data - Power coal pit - mouth prices are stable in the short - term, and trading sentiment has weakened, while import coal prices are rising [4] - Domestic supply of power coal has expanded on a weekly basis. As of November 14, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.465 million tons, a 0.03% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly increased. The 462 sample mines account for about 65% of the national total capacity [6][11] - In October 2025, the total production of raw coal was 406.75 million tons, a 1.15% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year decrease [12] - The global port coal out - bound volume decreased on a weekly basis, but Australian coal out - bound volume continued to rise [14] - The total amount of coal floating to China has increased [16] - As of November 7, the main arrival volume of power coal was 7.3135 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5433 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4683 million tons [19] 3.2 Power Coal Demand - This week, the demand for power coal for electricity consumption increased on a weekly basis. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces was 5.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 million tons. The average coal supply was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons. The average daily consumption of coastal eight provinces was 1.8199 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.017 million tons, and that of inland 17 provinces was 3.2927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1117 million tons [25] - The demand for chemical coal decreased on a weekly basis [26] - The coal supply of coastal eight - province power plants increased, and they started to replenish stocks. The inventory of inland 17 - province power plants steadily increased [28][34] - In October, the total social power generation decreased, and the new - energy power generation capacity declined. However, the wind and nuclear power generation assistance increased on a weekly basis [25][37] - In September, the coal consumption for electricity and metallurgy decreased, while that for chemical, construction, and heating remained relatively stable [42] 3.3 Power Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the mine inventory of power coal sample enterprises was 3.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.971 million tons [44] - The ports in the Bohai Rim region had a slight inventory build - up, and the port power coal market was in a stalemate [47] 3.4 Power Coal Transportation - The port coal intake decreased, while the out - take data continued to rise rapidly. Long - term contract demand may be maintained [53] - The power coal freight index slightly declined, the international dry - bulk freight increased, and the short - term transportation cost remained at a high level [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for thermal coal has increased this week, with obvious recovery in chemical and power demands, while the supply has shown a mixed trend, with domestic production and imports showing different changes [26][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Thermal coal pit - mouth quotes continue to rise [4]. 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - **Domestic supply**: As of October 10, the output of 462 sample mines was about 3.8703 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%, and the capacity utilization rate continued to shrink slightly. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The raw coal production in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased simultaneously [6][11]. - **Global supply**: The total global coal departure volume has decreased rapidly, and the departure volume from Russia has shrunk significantly. The total volume of coal floating to China has decreased month - on - month. As of October 3, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.291 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.1314 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1501 million tons [18][20][22]. 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - **Overall demand**: This week, the demand for power, metallurgy, construction, and chemicals has increased month - on - month, and the demand for thermal coal has increased month - on - month [29]. - **Sector - specific demand**: - **Chemical industry**: The demand has recovered month - on - month [30]. - **Power industry**: The inventory of power plants in 8 coastal provinces has decreased, and the coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces has increased month - on - month. The power generation of new energy has weakened, and the thermal power generation has increased year - on - year [32][34][36]. 3.4 Thermal Coal Demand Substitution - The contribution of alternative energy has weakened [39]. 3.5 Total Thermal Coal Demand - The electricity demand provides obvious support, and the coal consumption for construction and metallurgy has increased month - on - month [41]. 3.6 Thermal Coal Inventory - **Mine inventory**: As of October 10, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 3.184 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.63 million tons [43]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of 55 ports has increased slightly [46]. 3.7 Thermal Coal Transportation - The thermal coal freight index has recovered to mid - September, showing a fluctuating upward trend [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pit - mouth quotation of thermal coal continues to rise, and the supply and demand situation shows certain fluctuations. The domestic supply of thermal coal is increasing, while the demand side has different trends in various sectors, with power demand weakening and chemical demand rising. The inventory situation also varies among different entities, and the transportation and freight index show corresponding changes [4][6][30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - The pit - mouth quotation of thermal coal continues to rise [4]. 3.2 Thermal Coal Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of September 26, the output of 462 sample mines was about 39.557 million tons, a 0.5% week - on - week increase, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. The raw coal production in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased synchronously [6][12]. - **Global Supply**: The total global port departure volume increased slightly, with the shipment of Australian coal rising. The volume of coal floating to China increased mainly from Russia. As of September 19, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 7.9283 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 482,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 413,200 tons [19][21][23]. 3.3 Thermal Coal Demand - **Power Demand**: It weakened significantly. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 490,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 330,000 tons. The inventory of coastal eight - province power plants increased slightly, and the inland 17 - province power plants accumulated inventory [27][30][33]. - **Metallurgical and Construction Demand**: The blast furnace start - up production decreased, and the support of metallurgical demand weakened. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, but the construction demand decreased significantly [28]. - **Chemical Demand**: It increased month - on - month [31]. 3.4 Thermal Coal Demand Substitution - The new energy power generation capacity weakened, and the thermal power generation increased year - on - year. The contribution of alternative energy sources decreased [40][43]. 3.5 Total Thermal Coal Demand - The power consumption demand provided obvious support, and the coal consumption for construction and metallurgy increased month - on - month [45]. 3.6 Thermal Coal Inventory - **Mine Inventory**: As of September 26, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 3.151 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.779 million tons, still at a relatively high historical level [47]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of 55 ports decreased slightly [50]. 3.7 Thermal Coal Transportation - The freight index of thermal coal decreased slightly [53].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: September 21, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of thermal coal at ports has slightly rebounded. Supply has generally increased, while demand has shown a mixed trend, with power demand weakening and chemical demand rising. Inventory levels vary, and the freight index has moved upward. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - **Price**: The spot price of thermal coal at ports has slightly rebounded [4] - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 19, the output of 462 sample mines was about 39.347 million tons, a 1.7% week - on - week increase. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease [6][9] - **Supply - Global**: The global coal port departure volume has slightly increased. The volume of coal floating to China has increased, mainly from Australia. As of September 12, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 470,000 tons [11][13][16] - **Demand - Power**: Power demand has weakened significantly. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 370,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [20][22] - **Demand - Chemical**: Chemical demand has rebounded month - on - month [23] - **Demand - Substitute**: The power generation capacity of new energy has weakened, while thermal power generation has increased year - on - year. The contribution of alternative energy has increased [32][35] - **Total Demand**: Power consumption demand provides obvious support, while coal consumption in construction and metallurgy has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [38] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 2.963 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.528 million tons. The inventory at Bohai Rim ports has slightly decreased [41][44] - **Transportation**: The center of the thermal coal freight index has moved upward [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the thermal coal industry, covering aspects such as supply, demand, inventory, and transportation. It shows that thermal coal port spot prices have slightly rebounded, supply has shown mixed trends with some increases and some contractions, demand has weakened in certain sectors like power generation, and inventory levels vary across different entities. The influence of alternative energy sources on thermal coal demand is also significant. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Thermal coal port spot quotes have slightly rebounded [4] 3.2 Supply - **Domestic production**: In the last two months, domestic production has contracted year - on - year, but this week's supply has increased week - on - week. As of September 12, the output of 462 sample mines was about 38.682 million tons, a 2.7% week - on - week increase, and capacity utilization slightly recovered. These 462 samples involve a capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the country's total thermal coal mine capacity. In July 2025, the total raw coal production was 380.987 million tons, a 10% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year decrease, with synchronous declines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia [6][8][9] - **Global supply**: The global coal port outbound volume has contracted week - on - week. The increase in coal floating to China is mainly from Australia. As of September 5, the main inbound volume of thermal coal was 8.1653 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,600 tons but a year - on - year increase of 384,600 tons [11][13][15] 3.3 Demand - **Power generation demand**: It has weakened significantly. The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased, weakening the metallurgical demand support. Although the cement clinker capacity utilization rate has slightly increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the construction demand has decreased significantly. This week, the metallurgical, construction, and chemical demands have increased week - on - week, but the power generation demand is relatively weak year - on - year. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 90,000 tons. The average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces was 2.335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69,000 tons but a week - on - week increase of 35,700 tons. The average daily consumption of 17 inland provinces was 3.3517 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 394,100 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 124,700 tons [19][20][21] - **Chemical demand**: It has rebounded week - on - week [22] - **Demand substitution**: New energy power generation has significantly contributed, and thermal power generation has decreased year - on - year. Alternative energy sources have enhanced their contribution [32][35] - **Total demand**: Power consumption demand provides obvious support, while coal consumption in construction and metallurgy has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [38] 3.4 Inventory - **Mine inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 3.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 1.724 million tons. Although it has decreased significantly, it is still at a relatively high historical level [41] - **Bohai Rim port inventory**: It has slightly increased [44] 3.5 Transportation - The center of the thermal coal freight index has moved upward [47]