Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to be strong from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The low PTA processing fee results in a mild transmission of oil price changes to downstream industries [2] - The domestic PX operating rate has slightly decreased to 86.8%, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while the Asian PX operating rate is at 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline in operating rates is due to maintenance activities, leading to tight PX spot market supply [4] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The total PTA production capacity is projected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [5] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock for 13-14 days. The overall inventory level is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The PTA industry operating rate has adjusted to 75.7%, while the polyester industry operating rate is at 90.5%. The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA remain stable [7] - The polyester industry is expected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an average operating rate of 88.29%. However, the demand for polyester is showing signs of weakness, leading to a forecasted trading range for PTA contracts between 4500 and 4900 yuan/ton [8]

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to persist from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil prices to the downstream industry is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2] - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8% as of November 14, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while Asian PX operating rates fell to 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline is due to maintenance at several PX facilities in Asia, tightening PX spot market supply [2] - The PX market has seen a strong performance, with PXN absolute prices rising to $257 per ton, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [3] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock days at 13-14 days [3] - The recent removal of BIS certification for PTA and polyester products in India may accelerate inventory reduction if export demand materializes [3] Group 3: Polyester Production - The domestic polyester industry is projected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an expected average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA [4] - Despite a high operating rate, the polyester industry has seen a decline in raw material stock levels and a weakening order atmosphere in the weaving sector [4] - The market is expected to face a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with PTA futures prices projected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [4]