1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a stage of "cost push" and "demand suppression" game, with the price bottom rising but limited upward momentum. It is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillation trend in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by geopolitical factors and improved fundamentals. With both long and short factors at play, it is expected to continue a high - level oscillation in the short term [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by complex macro - factors. The coking coal market has reduced inventory pressure on the supply side and high replenishment enthusiasm on the demand side. The coke market has increased demand from steel mills but high raw material costs. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, cost changes, and production adjustments. With support from the cost side and certain supply - side expectations, they are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillation trend in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.48%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 99,700 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 0.25% to 6.6339 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.95% to 3.1539 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with 140,000 lots traded and a reduction of 16,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased due to a hurricane but gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased. The port inventory decreased by 147,350 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 550,000 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (0.41%), with a decrease of 1113 lots in positions. Most mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, and the inventory pressure was relieved. Coke enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm was high [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.09%), with a decrease of 436 lots in positions. The port spot price of coke decreased. The cost of coking coal for coke enterprises was still high, and the demand from steel mills increased [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6588 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,315 lots to 366,900 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions increased. Due to rising manganese ore prices, the number of production - reducing and production - converting enterprises increased, and the开机率 decreased. The cost was relatively firm, but the inventory was under pressure [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6066 yuan/ton, up 1.57% from the previous trading day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 4555 lots to 171,600 lots. The market price of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions increased. A silicon - iron furnace in Shaanxi was under maintenance. The total production in March was expected to be 451,400 tons, a 6.34% increase from the previous month and an 8.4% decrease from the same period last year. The cost increased, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest values and changes in contract spreads (such as 5 - 10 months, 10 - 1 months) and basis for various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: It also shows the latest values and changes in profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][8][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [16][17][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts presenting the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 05 - 10, 10 - 01) for different black commodities from 2018 to 2027 [25][27][31][32][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts present the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar main contracts from 2021 to 2026 [43][44][45][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and the combination of financial theory and industrial operations [50].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is currently experiencing a "weak balance" characterized by both supply and demand weaknesses, with prices remaining stable at the bottom due to cost support and improved macro sentiment [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Supply has slightly increased post-holiday, mainly in Xinjiang, where leading companies are gradually resuming production. However, regions like Yunnan and Sichuan are constrained by low operating rates due to drought and high electricity prices, maintaining a tight overall supply [2]. - In the northwest, production in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia remains stable, but cost differentiation is evident, with Gansu facing the most significant losses due to lack of cost advantages [2]. - Some companies in Yunnan and Sichuan are upgrading technology and adding production capacity, which may lead to slight increases in output [2]. Demand Side Summary - Demand from three major downstream sectors is showing divergence, with polysilicon maintaining weak stability and limited procurement of industrial silicon due to cautious inventory management [3]. - The organic silicon market is stable but recovering slowly, leading to limited demand for industrial silicon [3]. - The aluminum alloy sector is gradually increasing operating rates but is still purchasing industrial silicon on an as-needed basis, with no large-scale stocking observed [3]. - Export expectations for 2025 indicate a total of 720,600 tons, with a total export value of approximately $1.012 billion, although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may temporarily impact logistics and demand [3]. Market Dynamics - The core logic of the industrial silicon market revolves around the interplay between cost support and demand suppression, with limited supply increases and enhanced cost support providing a bottom for the market [4]. - Future market conditions will depend on the resumption of production in Xinjiang and changes in operating rates in the southwest, as well as fluctuations in coal and electricity prices [4]. - Without significant demand improvements, the market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation, but potential cost pressures or marginal demand recovery could lead to a gradual shift away from the current stalemate [4].

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to be strong from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The low PTA processing fee results in a mild transmission of oil price changes to downstream industries [2] - The domestic PX operating rate has slightly decreased to 86.8%, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while the Asian PX operating rate is at 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline in operating rates is due to maintenance activities, leading to tight PX spot market supply [4] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The total PTA production capacity is projected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [5] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock for 13-14 days. The overall inventory level is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The PTA industry operating rate has adjusted to 75.7%, while the polyester industry operating rate is at 90.5%. The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA remain stable [7] - The polyester industry is expected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an average operating rate of 88.29%. However, the demand for polyester is showing signs of weakness, leading to a forecasted trading range for PTA contracts between 4500 and 4900 yuan/ton [8]