相关数据显示，截至2026年1月16日当周，螺纹钢周产量仅为190.3万吨。247家钢厂高炉开工率为 78.84%，日均铁水产量为228.01万吨，均较去年高点明显回落。 预计春节前螺纹钢产量将维持低位，节后产量的回升节奏，主要取决于钢厂利润的修复程度及"反内 卷"等产量调控政策的实际执行力度。 2025年下半年，螺纹钢需求整体持续走弱，至11月，钢筋表观消费量已降至1333.7万吨，较同年6月高 点显著缩减了293.4万吨。 分项来看，核心驱动出现结构性分化，房地产与基建构成主要拖累。数据显示，2025年房地产投资、新 开工面积分别下降17.2%和20.4%；基建投资（不含电力）下降2.2%，导致螺纹钢需求萎缩。 制造业与"以旧换新"方面，其增量需求主要集中在板材领域，对螺纹钢需求的直接提振作用有限。 出口成为需求的重要支撑。2025年1—12月，钢材出口累计1.19亿吨，同比增长7.5%，部分缓解国内供 应压力。但自2026年1月1日起，钢铁产品出口许可证管理政策实施，预计将使2026年出口量减少约1900 万吨，这部分资源将回流国内，给内需市场带来额外消化压力。 短期来看，随着春节临近，工地面临全面停工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The prices of finished products are under short - term pressure due to export license management policies but are expected to gradually digest policy disturbances. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and the macro level is in a policy observation period [3]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. The decline in hot metal production has reduced marginal pressure. The late Spring Festival in 2026 has postponed the restocking time, and the low inventory of steel mills provides restocking demand expectations. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the market macro - sentiment fluctuations have temporarily ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese ore market [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. The supply decline depends on the production rhythm in the northwest. The demand from polysilicon weakens, and the demand from silicone is relatively stable in the short term. The price is expected to follow the market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - For polysilicon, the production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is still unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2057 tons to 58627 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 15590 lots to 1.581839 million lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 295 tons to 104588 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 9350 lots to 1.238912 million lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production increased slightly this week, apparent demand declined, and the inventory level was at a five - year low. For hot - rolled coils, production continued to decline, apparent demand strengthened slightly, inventory continued to decrease, and inventory contradictions were marginally alleviated. Beijing's relaxation of housing purchase policies may have a demonstration effect on other first - tier cities and help digest real - estate inventory. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 778.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00). The open interest increased by 13387 lots to 567100 lots, and the weighted open interest was 932500 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.96 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.59% [4]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, while those from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot - metal production was stable at 226.58 tons. The profitability of steel mills improved. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still at a five - year low. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On December 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fluctuated, closing up 0.24% at 5846 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 64 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.64% at 5692 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 8 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and supply has declined due to losses. Future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, manganese ore cost - push for manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon supply contraction due to losses [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8835 yuan/ton, down 0.28% (- 25). The weighted open interest decreased by 1468 lots to 396686 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 365 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% (+ 2460). The weighted open interest increased by 2097 lots to 212843 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were unchanged. The basis was - 8410 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for polysilicon futures contracts from December 29, 2025 [13][14][15]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. Supply decline depends on the northwest production rhythm, and polysilicon demand support weakens. The price is expected to follow market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - Polysilicon: Production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: The glass main contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.95% (+ 20). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan (unchanged), and in Central China it was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57% (331000 cases). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 13175 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13150 short positions [18]. - Soda ash: The soda ash main contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.77% (+ 9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan (unchanged). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57% (5000 tons), with heavy - soda inventory down 18800 tons and light - soda inventory up 23800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11632 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13318 short positions [20]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - Soda ash: Downstream demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. Affected by the export license management policy, the prices of finished products still face some short - term pressure, and the policy impact is expected to be gradually digested later. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro - level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range. The support at the lower level is relatively solid in the short term. After the rebound of the futures price, the basis has shrunk [5]. - The market sentiment of the black commodity chain has clearly warmed up. The future trends of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are mainly led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Also, the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply of ferrous alloys needs attention [8][9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest region [12]. - The futures price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to weak demand and limited capacity contraction [18]. - The soda ash market's rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.255%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 60684 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.597429 million lots, an increase of 17388 lots. The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.121%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 104293 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.229562 million lots, an increase of 31165 lots. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of hot - rolled coils has significantly declined, the apparent demand has weakened slightly, the inventory has continued to fall, but the inventory pressure is still relatively prominent. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 779.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The position changed by - 317 lots to 553,700 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 920,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.78 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period decreased month - on - month. The daily average pig iron production continued to decline. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Ferrous Alloys (Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese - Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 24, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM603) maintained an oscillation, closing up 0.17% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to cost - push from manganese ore and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5656 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Due to increasing production losses, some enterprises have shut down or switched production, leading to a supply decline and a certain rebound in the futures price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to supply contraction due to losses and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) was 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.91% (+80). The weighted contract position changed by - 2859 lots to 398,154 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, both with no change. The basis of the main contract was 340 yuan/ton for 553 and - 10 yuan/ton for 421 [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in the short term. The weekly production decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2605) was 58300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.56% (- 925). The weighted contract position changed by - 12830 lots to 210,746 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 5950 yuan/ton for the main contract. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has introduced position limits and added delivery warehouses [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon production in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton, up 1.95% (+20). The large - plate price in North China was 1020 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 28192 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31578 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is still weak, and the market is in a supply - demand loosening pattern. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton, up 0.77% (+9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 13051 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 14971 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20].