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出口链改善
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渤海证券研究所晨会纪要(2025.12.16)-20251216
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-12-16 00:29
Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand will dominate and set the economic tone for the coming year, with a short-term focus on improvements in the export chain [2] Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, highlighting the importance of domestic demand [2] - A notification on strengthening the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption was officially released [2] Important Company Announcements - Jian Sheng Group announced an investment of 818 million yuan in capacity construction in Egypt [2] - Ribo Fashion plans to acquire 71% of Indile's shares for 1.42 billion yuan through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment [2] Market Review - From December 8 to December 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, with a decline of 1.04% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 0.08% [2] - During the same period, the textile and apparel sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 2.49 percentage points, with a decline of 2.57% [2] Weekly Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to build a strong domestic market as a primary task for economic work next year. Policies for replacing old products in sectors like automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings are expected to continue [2] - The real estate market will be stabilized with city-specific measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing [2] - Approximately 100 cities, including Hangzhou and Wuhan, have increased housing purchase subsidies this year, indicating a less pessimistic outlook for the real estate sector [2] Recommendations - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors, while suggesting to continue monitoring companies with strong overseas capacity and brand pricing power [3] - Companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Pathfinder (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) are rated as "overweight" [3]
7月个护电商改善,中美关税暂缓关注出口链
Huafu Securities· 2025-08-17 08:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - E-commerce sales for personal care products showed improvement in July, with notable growth in brands like Princess Nais and All Cotton Era, leading to continued recommendations for companies like Steady Medical and Haoyue Care [2][4] - The approval of double-glue paper futures and the current low prices of pulp and paper suggest a potential price recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Sun Paper [2][4] - The US-China tariff suspension for 90 days is expected to alleviate pressure on the domestic export chain, with a focus on companies with overseas supply chain layouts [2][4] Summary by Sections E-commerce and Personal Care - In July, e-commerce platform sales for sanitary napkins, toothpaste, diapers, and tissue paper showed month-on-month recovery, with growth rates of +5% for sanitary napkins and +24% for toothpaste [4][5] - Brands such as Princess Nais (+53%), All Cotton Era (+34%), and Jieting (+25%) maintained high growth, with recommendations for Steady Medical and Haoyue Care [4][5] Paper Industry - As of August 15, 2025, prices for various paper types were reported: double-glue paper at 4950 CNY/ton (-43.75 CNY), copper plate paper at 5150 CNY/ton (-170 CNY), and box board paper at 3484.2 CNY/ton (+20.8 CNY) [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for price recovery in the paper industry due to supply-demand imbalances and recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology [4][5] Home Furnishing - In July, retail sales of furniture increased by +20.6% year-on-year, while building materials saw a decline of -0.5% [4][5] - Recommendations include leading custom furniture companies such as Oppein Home and Sofia, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Joyous [4][5] Export Chain - The US-China tariff suspension is expected to ease export pressures, with a focus on companies like Zhongxin and Jiangxin Home [4][5] - The report notes that shipping costs are gradually decreasing, with the CCFI and SCFI indices down by -0.6% and -2.0% respectively [4][5] Packaging - Meiyingsen reported a revenue of 1.949 billion CNY in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of +5.46% [4][5] - Recommendations include companies in biodegradable packaging and metal packaging sectors, highlighting the stable operations and dividend value of leading packaging firms [4][5] New Tobacco Products - The report suggests monitoring new tobacco products as international leaders launch HNB products, with a focus on companies like Simoer International [4][5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector showed a decline, with a focus on leading brands like Hailan Home and Anta [4][5] - The report indicates a need for attention on outdoor economy trends and companies like Zhejiang Nature and Mugaodi [4][5]