1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous low replenishment and high culling have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. Coupled with the increasing hoarding sentiment after the temperature drop, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With the subsequent consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - holiday stocking, the improved sentiment is expected to drive the market to build up inventory. The futures market has anticipated the price increase, but the long - positions are generally cautious due to the premium over the spot market, and the expectation of high supply still exists. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and investors are advised to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper pressure for short - selling opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: In October, the domestic egg supply and demand were loose. Due to high inventory, the demand during the "Double Festivals" was lower than expected, and continuous rainfall in the north after the festivals led to a sluggish market. Egg prices were weak in the first and middle of the month, but rebounded at the end of the month as the temperature dropped and the downstream market became more active. The breeding industry continued to suffer losses, and the culling of chickens accelerated, with the average chicken age dropping to 493 days. Looking forward to November, the supply of newly - laid eggs will decrease and continuous culling will cause the inventory of laying hens to peak and decline, but the overall supply is still large, which may limit the price increase. The demand side will be frequently stimulated by factors such as hoarding and stocking, so the egg prices are expected to fluctuate strongly until the end of the inventory - building season [11]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing chickens continued to be low. In October, the replenishment volume decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state, and the enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high. The price of old chickens has reached a multi - year low compared to the same period, and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens has turned negative. The average chicken age has further decreased to 493 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 90 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to last year's 1.287 billion. Based on the previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline gradually. It will remain flat in November and further decrease to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. Although the relative supply is decreasing, the absolute supply is still high [11]. - **Demand Side**: As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first building up inventory and then reducing it [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure of the 01 - 06 contracts in the medium - term. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: In October, the domestic egg supply and demand were loose. Egg prices were weak in the first and middle of the month and rebounded at the end of the month. The prices of large - sized eggs in Heishan, Guantao, Huilongguan, and Dongguan all decreased to varying degrees. Looking forward to November, the egg prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spot market has stabilized with partial price increases, but the futures market has moved ahead, with the far - month contracts showing a slightly stronger trend, leading to a decline in the basis. The monthly spread shows a positive arbitrage trend [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high, and the absolute price of culled chickens and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens have reached new lows [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - laying Hen Replenishment**: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishing chickens continued to be low. In October, the replenishment volume decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Although the egg prices have rebounded from the low level, the breeding industry is still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remains high, the price of old chickens has reached a multi - year low compared to the same period, and the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens has turned negative. The average chicken age has further decreased to 493 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than the previous expectation, mainly because the culling volume unexpectedly increased. However, the absolute quantity is still large, a month - on - month decrease of 90 million compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 5.6% compared to last year's 1.287 billion. Based on the previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline gradually. It will remain flat in November and further decrease to 1.319 billion by March next year, a decline of 2.9%. Although the relative supply is decreasing, the absolute supply is still high [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - As the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first building up inventory and then reducing it [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower compared to the same period last year and has decreased month - on - month. The profitability is at a relatively low seasonal level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025, but short - term sharp declines are also unlikely as there may be secondary fattening when prices approach 14 yuan/kg. The 2505 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis - In the context of weakening spot prices and a pessimistic market outlook for April pig prices, the price of the LH2505 contract fluctuated downward this week [2]. - On March 28, 2025, the benchmark ground (Henan) had a base price of 14.53 yuan/kg, and the main contract basis was 1305 yuan/ton [3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - Far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [5]. 3.1.3 Inter - monthly Spread Changes - Affected by the weakening of spot prices, the reverse spread trend of the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 contracts was obvious in the latter part of the week [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Prices and Slaughter Volumes - This week, the slaughter volume began to decline, and pig prices fell in the latter part of the week [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - The spreads among selected regions were within a relatively reasonable range [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spreads - The fat - standard price spread continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Spreads - Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spreads - Beef prices have risen recently, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - fattening remained profitable, while purchased piglet fattening was slightly profitable [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weights - The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. 3.3 Capacity End 3.3.1 Reproductive Sow Inventory - In January, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In February, the reproductive sow inventory in relevant samples continued to increase [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows remained stable this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly month - on - month in February [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Newborn Healthy Piglet Numbers - In February, the number of newborn healthy piglets was basically stable month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in July and stable numbers in August [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to rise this week due to increased enthusiasm among farmers for replenishment as the weather warmed up. The price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In January, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 38.16 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Some slaughterhouses carried out segmentation and warehousing operations, which supported pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [39].