If the U.S. government shutdown is bothering investors, you wouldn’t know it by the stock market. In early morning trading on Thursday, the benchmark S&P 400 index was up 8% and appeared to be extending an already three-month winning streak. It’s not just the S&P, either. Both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also up on the second day of post-shutdown trading, suggesting a collective shrug across broad sectors of the U.S. stock market. A benign reaction to the government shutdown sho ...

连平/文 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为"四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分别 是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开启本 轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共振前景难 料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复杂交织，有可 能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以来， 部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。1—8月固定资产投 资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下 降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当前"十四五"规 划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规模启动，出现了一 定程度上的项目衔接的空窗期，"缺优质项目"成为基建投资增长的核心矛盾。 二是房地产市场 ...

低利率下的宏观分析框架与债券定价 20250926 摘要 中国房地产投资占 GDP 比重显著下降，从 14%降至 7%，住宅投资降 至 3.3%，低于发达国家水平，表明房地产不再是宏观经济的核心驱动 因素，需调整分析框架，转向消费等其他驱动因素。 房地产投资下降导致储蓄剩余，资金流向制造业投资和政府债券，理解 资金流向是宏观分析的关键，需关注储蓄和消费之间的动态变化，以及 工业和服务业的相对变化。 中国消费率相对较低，提升消费率是一个长期过程，面临收入分配和消 费者倾向较低的挑战，不能简单照搬美国消费驱动型模式，需具体情况 具体分析。 新兴市场高消费率往往与高通胀相关，并非健康的消费驱动型经济，温 和通胀环境更有利于维持稳定健康的消费者行为，中国应避免高通胀或 低通胀。 房地产融资下降，政府债券融资快速增长，实体企业融资保持较高水平， 社融结构变化降低了社融指标对宏观经济的指引作用，未来金融对实体 经济的作用可能更多依赖于利率。 Q&A 传统的宏观分析框架及其对债券定价逻辑的影响是什么？ 传统的宏观分析框架在很大程度上以房地产作为核心。过去，房地产在中国经 济中的占比非常高，对经济波动有着显著影响。例如，房地 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in long-term government bonds and capital bonds [1][2] - The bond market's performance diverged from the funding and economic fundamentals due to several factors, including a notable rise in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [1][2] - Institutional funds, such as pension funds, shifted significantly from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbated by regulatory impacts on public funds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market's balance increased by 15.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with government bonds contributing 10.3 trillion yuan and financial bonds 2.7 trillion yuan [1][4] - Bank self-operated bond investments surged, with an increase of 11.4 trillion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a strong shift towards bond investments amid low credit demand [1][4] - The report notes that the overall bond investment balance of major banks increased by 21.4% year-on-year, while small and medium-sized banks also saw a significant increase of 17.8% [1][4] Group 3 - The report suggests that conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be emerging, with the central bank indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy while managing risks [1][2] - Recent economic data shows a decline in investment, consumption, and export growth rates, suggesting increasing downward pressure on the economy [1][6] - The report anticipates that the bond market's configuration value is prominent, with potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields, particularly for 10-year government bonds [1][2]

今年以来，我省共发行政府债券270.22亿元用于补充政府性基金财力，显著增强政府预算统筹能力和财 政可持续性；发行政府债券1147.78亿元用于置换存量隐性债务，在优化债务期限结构、降低存量债务 融资成本、缓释短期偿债压力、平滑财政支出节奏等方面发挥了积极作用。（记者 曾鸣） 责任编辑： 何山 其中，7年期再融资专项债券98.7985亿元，发行利率1.94%，用于偿还到期债券的部分本金；20年期新 增专项债券134.0174亿元，发行利率2.37%，用于存量政府投资项目；30年期新增专项债券53.3193亿 元，发行利率2.37%，用于补充政府性基金财力；30年期再融资专项债券97.0166亿元，发行利率 2.37%，用于置换存量隐性债务。 9月22日，记者从省财政厅获悉，近日，我省在深圳成功发行政府债券383.1518亿元。 ...

Group 1 - Strategic restructuring of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group has been announced, with control remaining unchanged under the Henan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] - Henan Province has completed the issuance of government bonds totaling 20.38745 billion yuan, including 303.63 million yuan for refinancing existing hidden debts, with strict regulations against new hidden debts [2] - Henan Zhongyu Credit Enhancement Co., Ltd. has become one of the first institutions in the country to obtain the qualification for creating credit risk mitigation certificates [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 296.5 billion yuan [6] - Luoyang City is expanding the scope of local government special bonds to support urban renewal projects, aiming to complete 19 village renovations by the end of 2027 [8][9] - Shandong Province is promoting new mechanisms for public-private partnerships (PPP) and REITs in urban renewal, encouraging integrated project financing models [9] Group 3 - Luoyang City has issued an urban renewal action plan for 2025-2030, focusing on the renovation of urban villages and the management of special funds [8] - The issuance of various corporate bonds has been approved, including a 10 billion yuan bond by Luohe Investment Holding Group and a 5 billion yuan bond by Henan Highway Project Management Company [10][11] - The issuance of a 5 billion yuan bond by Henan Provincial Urban-Rural Integration Development Group has been completed, with a 2.23% interest rate [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 19, 2025, the debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds of government bonds are nearly issued, with about 2.1 trillion yuan of remaining varieties to be issued, indicating fiscal room for more efforts. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, there are several possibilities, and different issuance methods have different requirements and limitations [2][32]. - The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong. The 14D reverse repurchase is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and the operation may be more flexible. The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented" [3][57]. - From late September to early October, in order to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious [4][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Bond Classification, Progress, and Outlook 3.1.1 Types of Debt - Resolution Local Bonds - **Replacement Bonds**: General replacement bonds include replacement bonds (used from 2015 - 2019) and replacement - type refinancing special bonds (used from 2024 - 2026). The 2025 quota of replacement bonds is nearly issued. The replacement bonds in 2015 - 2018 issued 12.2 trillion yuan, and in 2019, 1579 billion yuan was issued. From 2024, the replacement - type refinancing special bonds are used, with 2 trillion yuan per year from 2024 - 2026, and as of September 19, 2025, 19747 billion yuan has been issued [14][19][20]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: Since 2020, they have become a new tool for local government debt resolution. The issuance can be divided into four stages, with a total issuance of about 31298 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the 4000 - billion - yuan quota added in October 2024 has accumulated an issuance of 3981 billion yuan, and the existing quota is nearly issued [24][25][26]. - **Special Newly - Added Special Bonds**: Some newly - added special bonds not disclosing "one case and two books" are mainly used for resolving implicit debts. From 2024 - 2028, there is an 8000 - billion - yuan quota per year. As of September 19, 2025, 11506 billion yuan has been issued, and the excess may be used to repay government arrears to enterprises [27][31]. 3.1.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bond Varieties and Q4 Outlook - As of September 19, 2025, debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds are nearly issued, and the remaining varieties to be issued are about 2.1 trillion yuan. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, for treasury bonds, raising the quota requires approval from the National People's Congress, and there may be a rush - to - issue phenomenon in advance. Using the remaining quota does not require approval from the National People's Congress, but the current space is limited. For local bonds, the remaining quota and replacement bond quota have been allocated, but issuance requires fiscal approval [2][32][36]. 3.2 Monetary Policy 3.2.1 How to View the Tightening of Funds During the Tax Period and at the End of the Month? - In mid - September, due to the central bank's restrained liquidity injection, tax payments, and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the funds tightened briefly. Looking forward, funds may gradually ease in the last 7 days of the quarter, and the risk of fund fluctuations is relatively limited [44][47]. 3.2.2 How to Understand the Reform of the 14D Reverse Repurchase Bidding Method? - The 14D reverse repurchase bidding method is changed to multiple - rate bidding, which further strengthens the policy - rate status of the 7D reverse repurchase. The theoretical price is currently 1.55%. The 14D reverse repurchase in September is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and subsequent operations may be more flexible [50][51][52]. 3.2.3 Will China Follow the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut? - The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented". The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong, and the focus is on structural policy tools to boost broad credit [57][59][60]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy - From late September to early October, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious, and appropriate strategies include small - band micro - operations, short - credit coupon income, and waiting for better opportunities [61][65][66]. - Some varieties show cost - effectiveness and can be gradually entered during the adjustment process. According to the three - factor interest - rate bond comparison analysis framework, continue to pay attention to the 6y CDB bonds, 7y local bonds, and 10y CDB bonds. Funds with stable liabilities can pay attention to 20y CDB bonds and 30y treasury bonds [67]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted net OMO injections, and the funding situation was balanced but tight [81]. 3.4.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [83]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spread of treasury bonds widened, and the term spread of CDB bonds narrowed. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds and CDB bonds performed better than the long - end varieties [78][88].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the banking sector is experiencing a recovery in revenue growth and profitability, with a year-on-year increase in operating income of 1.04% and a net profit growth of 0.80% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend after previous declines [3][17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of "volume-price balance" in banking operations for 2025, with banks focusing on improving asset quality and avoiding excessive low-priced credit supply, leading to a slight decrease in the loan ratio to 55.8% for listed banks [4][27][29] - Non-interest income has shown significant recovery, with a notable contribution from investment income, which is expected to account for 29.5% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a shift towards diversified income sources [3][4][24] Group 2 - The report identifies challenges in the asset side of banks, including difficulties in finding quality assets and the need for balance sheet adjustments rather than mere expansion, as the demand for credit remains weak [4][5] - On the liability side, the trend of "wealthization" of deposits is creating liquidity management challenges, with a significant amount of high-interest fixed deposits maturing in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a reduction in deposit costs [5][6] - The report notes a divergence in the provisioning trends between state-owned banks and smaller banks, with state-owned banks increasing their provisions while smaller banks face a decline in their coverage ratios due to rising non-performing loans [6][7][24] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggested in the report include focusing on banks with stable dividends and low implied price-to-book ratios, as well as selecting stocks based on funding attributes, competitive landscape, safety margins, and dividend strategies [7][8] - The report highlights specific banks that are expected to benefit from the current competitive landscape, including Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and CITIC Bank, among others [7][8][24] - The overall outlook for the banking sector remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a stabilization in net interest margins around 1.4% for the year [3][4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's bond purchase is approaching, which is conducive to the sustainability of fiscal expansion and may be implemented in Q4 or even October. - The early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. If it happens, the probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases will increase. - The significance of the inflection point of social financing has declined, but the pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge, which will bring some support to the bond market. - At the current position, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about bonds. In the short - term, investors can play the rebound and wait for the central bank's bond purchase to be implemented later. [2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. The central bank's bond purchase is conducive to the sustainability of fiscal expansion - The net supply of government bonds has been increasing, with a 3 - year compound growth rate of 24% from 2022 - 2025, and the proportion of bond interest payments in fiscal expenditure has reached 4.5% in 2024. Future government bond issuance is likely to remain high. - Commercial banks' ability to absorb government bonds has declined, leading to frequent "flying" in the primary issuance of government bonds this year. - Low - interest rates are crucial for fiscal sustainability. In Japan, lower interest rates have supported continuous fiscal expansion. In China, a 10BP increase in bond issuance interest rates in 2025 would increase fiscal interest payments by 22.6 billion, and a 10BP increase in the average cost of existing debt could lead to an increase in interest - payment costs of over 100 billion. [8][9][13] 2. The central bank's recent measures to improve bond market liquidity may be preparations before bond purchases - The second meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank in early September is regarded as a signal for the central bank to restart bond purchases. - The central bank may want to improve the bond market infrastructure first to reduce the impact of its bond - buying behavior on the yield curve. - In July, the central bank proposed to cancel the freeze on collateral for bond repurchases, and on September 12, the China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and the National Inter - bank Funding Center announced a centralized bond lending business, which may increase market liquidity. The central bank may restart bond purchases in Q4 or even October. [20][27][29] 3. The early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. If it happens, the probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases will further increase - The statement of "pre - allocating part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and using the debt - resolution quota earlier" does not necessarily mean the early issuance of 2 trillion replacement bonds in Q4. The new debt quota mentioned may refer to 80 billion of new local special bonds for debt resolution, and early allocation of this quota has been a common practice since 2019. - It is estimated that the average monthly net financing of government bonds in Q4 is about 633.5 billion. Unless there is a significant decrease in fiscal deposits in September, the early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. Even if they are issued early, the central bank is likely to take measures to maintain liquidity, increasing the probability of bond purchases in Q4. [30][35][39] 4. The significance of the inflection point of social financing has declined, but the pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge - In August, the new social financing was 256.93 billion, slightly higher than expected but with a year - on - year decrease. Credit and government bonds were the main drags. The social financing growth rate dropped to 8.8%. - The significance of the social financing inflection point has decreased since 2021 due to the weakening impact of the real - estate cycle. However, the pressure on the fundamentals is increasing, as shown by weak export and inflation data in August and slow improvement in high - frequency data such as real - estate sales and construction - related indicators. This may support the bond market. [40][48] 5. At the current position, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about bonds. In the short - term, play the rebound and wait for the central bank's bond purchase to be implemented later - Although the bond market may face external disturbances such as the implementation of the redemption - fee new rule and the adjustment of the tax - exemption policy for public - fund dividends, after the 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.83%, panic has been largely released. - The large - scale buying by the allocation portfolio last week indicates that the interest rate may have reached the top. - It is recommended to play the short - term interest - rate rebound, keep a neutral position, and reserve funds for further investment. 3 - 5 - year policy - financial bonds and secondary bonds have increased in allocation value, while long - term bonds may be affected by the equity market and should be watched in the short - term. [49][52]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August, new social financing (社融) reached 2.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 463 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, but an increase of 1.44 trillion yuan from July, slightly above consensus expectations[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in August was 8.8%, down 0.17 percentage points from July, and slightly below the expected 8.85%[2] - New RMB loans in August amounted to 623.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 417.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, but an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan from July[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - The significant growth in August was seen in bill financing, indicating a recovery in short-term financing demand in the real economy[2] - Government bonds accounted for the largest share of new financing in August, with 1.37 trillion yuan, while direct financing through corporate bonds and stock financing remained relatively high[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.20 percentage points from July, while RMB loans, corporate bonds, and entrusted loans saw notable declines[2] Group 3: Deposit and Loan Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continued, with new resident deposits of 110 billion yuan and new corporate deposits of 299.7 billion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased significantly by 1.18 trillion yuan compared to last year[2] - New loans from financial institutions in August totaled 590 billion yuan, a decrease of 310 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate loans down by 250 billion yuan[2] - The increase in short-term loans and interbank loans was the only area showing growth compared to the same month last year, highlighting a shift in corporate financing behavior[2] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The marginal improvement in corporate financing demand is attributed to ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and domestic macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations[2] - Attention is needed on the decline in long-term loans to residents compared to last year, indicating potential challenges in consumer financing[2] - Risks include a potential second wave of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and increasing complexity in international relations[2]