我省成功发行第十批政府债券184.83亿元 原标题： 11月20日，山西省财政厅通过中央国债登记结算有限公司北京总部成功发行政府债券184.83亿元，期限 包含5年、7年、10年期，全场平均发行利率1.89%，平均投标倍数24.83倍。本批政府债券全部为再融资 债券，严格用于偿还到期政府债券。至此，我省今年已累计发行政府债券1733.83亿元，其中新增债券 发行885.64亿元，再融资债券发行848.1951亿元。（记者任志霞） ...

聚力化存量、优增量、建机制，加快平台转型以防债务风险。 化解地方政府债务风险是"十五五"时期财政一大重点工作，近年来地方加快化解地方政府隐性债务风 险，地方债务风险得到大幅缓释，但相关隐患依然值得注意。 在安徽省地方政府债务风险方面，上述文章指出，当地政府债务风险总体可控但隐患积聚。截至2024年 底，全省全口径负债率显著低于全国平均水平、债务率居全国中等水平，但存在一些潜在问题。其中首 要问题是债务增速过快。 近些年受经济下行、财政收入增长放缓等影响，为了稳投资稳经济，各地加大举债力度，叠加近年为化 解隐性债务风险，各地加大发行政府债券置换隐性债务，这使得地方政府债务增速较快。 上述安徽省财政厅文章称，过去五年，全省全口径债务年均增速远超一般公共预算和政府性基金收入增 速，两者增速差额持续扩大。 根据安徽省财政厅公开数据，截至2024年底安徽省政府债务余额为18527.1亿元，是2020年债务余额 （9600.1）的近2倍。这一债务余额控制在中央批准的债务限额之内，债务风险总体安全可控。 11月20日，安徽省财政厅课题组在《中国财政》发表了《新形势下防范化解财政有关风险问题研究》， 该文围绕安徽省基层"三保 ...

日本政府计划推出大规模经济刺激方案 引发金融市场担忧 中新网11月19日电(记者 张乃月)据日本共同社19日报道，知情人士称，日本政府计划推出规模超20万亿 日元的经济刺激方案，以缓解该国生活成本上升的压力。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 日媒指出，截至2023年，日本的债务与国内生产总值之比已达240%。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 一直以来，日本首相高市早苗承诺，将通过积极的财政支出来支撑日本饱受通胀困扰的经济。然而，投 资者对其经济政策对日本财政健康的影响表示担忧，导致近期日元和政府债券遭到抛售。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

【宏观周报20251116】国内社融及经济数据显示内需增长有所放 # 朱枭鹏，Z0015158 日期: 2025-11-16 【宏观周报20251116】国内社融及经济数据显示内需增长有所放缓 【宏观总结20251116】 国内经济:国内10月经济数据显示内需偏弱 11月14日，国家统计局公布数据显示，国内10月内需呈现内需放缓迹象。 10月社会消费品零售总额同比增长2. %。连续五个月下行且增速较5月份这一年内高点回 落4.5个百分点，一是商品零售继续走弱，商品零售增速2.8V，前值3.38; 二是服务零售和餐饮回升，消费结构优化趋势未改、但总量修复仍需政策支持。投资硕 方面，1-10月固定资产投资累计增速录得一.7%（前值-0.5%），地产、基建、制造业投资均出现了不同程度的回落。其中，制造业走弱趋势明显。1-10月制造业 投资边际下滑1.38至2.7%，制造业投资连续7个月下滑，且连续5个月下滑大于1%，制造业投资从三季度开始下滑幅度加速，民间投资下降和设备更新边际递减是 主因。地产方面，全国新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%，新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.6%。 国内经济 ...

4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's monetary structure from a credit-driven model to a new model characterized by "debt supplementing loans" and a focus on direct financing, highlighting the implications for the real economy and capital markets [2][3][16]. Group 1: Monetary Structure Changes - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the increasing importance of direct financing in its recent reports, indicating a significant shift in the financing structure [3][8]. - As of October, the balance of M2 was 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, suggesting a "reasonably loose" monetary condition [5]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the social financing scale has decreased, with government bonds and other debt instruments taking a more prominent role, indicating a transition to a "wide currency, weak credit" scenario [5][6]. Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market, driven by ample liquidity in the banking system and a need to stimulate effective financing demand [12]. - The report indicates that the increase in direct financing is expected to influence the total monetary volume and financial regulation deeply, suggesting a structural uplift in the financial capital market's weight [12][14]. - However, the article warns that this does not guarantee a complete transition to a market-driven capital structure, as several challenges remain, including the need for stable corporate earnings and changes in household asset allocation behavior [14][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that China is at an early stage of rewriting the relationship between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and capital markets, with a structural shift underway but a long way to go before a paradigm shift from credit-driven to capital-driven growth is achieved [17]. - Future observations should focus not only on the macro indicator of direct financing but also on micro-level changes, such as consumer spending behavior and the stability of producer incomes, to assess the effectiveness of this structural transition [17].

2025 年 11 月 14 日 债券市场或已对金融数据回落有所预期 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：央行公布 2025 年 10 月金融数据，社融新增 0.82 万亿元，社融存量同比 增长 8.5%，较前值下降 0.2pct；2025 年前三季度社会融资规模增量累计为 30.90 万亿元，同比增长 14.1%；M1 同比增长 6.2%，M2 同比增长 8.2%，M0 同比增 长 10.6%，前十个月净投放现金 7284 亿元。 债券市场或已对 10 月金融数据回落有所预期 1、地方政府化债会阶段性下拉贷款增长。2025 年三季度货币政策报告指出 2024 年以来，地方政府发行 4 万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行 贷款。地方政府通过发行低利率债券偿还高息贷款，降低融资成本的同时避免两 头付息。化债将支持方式从贷款转为债券，并不影响整体支持力度。 2、政府部门加杠杆对冲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit demand is generally weak, and the loan growth rate is expected to continue to slow. The bond market will maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [1][6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In October, the new credit was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28 billion yuan, and the new credit scale has decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months. Except for bill financing, the new scale of medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises decreased year-on-year to varying degrees, and short-term corporate loans were the same as the previous value [1][9]. - In terms of corporate credit, the new corporate credit in October was 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22 billion yuan, mainly due to bill financing. The new medium and long-term corporate loans were 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14 billion yuan; short-term corporate loans were -19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [2][9]. - In terms of household loans, the new household loans in October were -36.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.04 billion yuan in reduction. The new medium and long-term household loans were -7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18 billion yuan in reduction; short-term household loans were -28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56 billion yuan in reduction. Short-term loans have decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months, and real estate sales have continued to decline since mid-October, indicating weak social terminal demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - The growth rate of social financing further declined. In October, the new social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.71 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The issuance of government bonds was stable, with a new scale of 48.93 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 70 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan [3][13]. - Assuming that 1 trillion yuan of next year's issuance quota is issued in the fourth quarter of this year, it is estimated that government bonds from November to December will still decrease year-on-year. By the end of the year, the social financing growth rate may drop to about 8.3% [3][13]. Money Supply Situation - In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, partly due to the base effect and partly related to the outflow of household deposits. The two-year compound growth rate of M1 in October was 1.85%, basically the same as the previous value. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month [4][17]. Deposit and Loan Situation - In October, new deposits were 61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 billion yuan. The stock index broke through 4,000 points on October 29, and household and corporate deposits may have flowed to non-bank institutions. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan in reduction; corporate deposits decreased by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.3 billion yuan in reduction; non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan [5][19]. - The overall deposit growth rate in October was 8.0% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, while the loan growth rate dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. The gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened to 1.5 percentage points, indicating a continued asset shortage [5][19]. Bond Market Situation - The broad-spectrum interest rate continued to decline, and the bond market continued to recover in a volatile manner. The year-on-year growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 all declined in October, and household credit decreased, indicating a weak recovery in the current fundamentals. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the interest rate is expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter [6][21].

Core Insights - In the second half of this year, institutions have actively researched and tracked the operational status of listed banks, with 748 institutions conducting 133 investigations into 23 listed banks as of November 13 [1][2] - The focus of these investigations has been primarily on city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, with key areas of interest including net interest margin trends, non-interest income trends, and capital replenishment [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Research - The majority of institutions conducting research on listed banks are fund companies and securities firms, accounting for 53% of the total [2] - Jiangsu Bank emerged as the most popular among institutions, receiving 83 investigations, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank with 76 and 75 investigations respectively [2] - Ruifeng Bank had the highest number of total investigations at 22 [2] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - Net interest margin has been a focal point for institutions, with some listed banks showing signs of stabilization or slight recovery compared to the previous year [2] - Several banks reported successful measures to reduce funding costs, such as exiting high-cost deposits and enhancing the absorption of low-cost current deposits [3] - Xiamen Bank reported a 4 basis point increase in net interest margin to 1.08% in the first half of the year, with continued stabilization in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Debt Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a volatile trend this year, impacting the investment income of some listed banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks [4] - Banks are focusing on their investment strategies in the bond market, with a cautious approach to market trends and adjustments in trading positions [4] - Shanghai Bank plans to enhance its market analysis capabilities and maintain flexibility in its investment strategies to mitigate risks from market interest rate fluctuations [4] Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Capital Replenishment - Many banks noted changes in non-interest income, particularly in net income from fees and commissions, which have been affected by regulatory requirements on self-managed wealth management [6] - Banks are exploring various methods for capital replenishment, combining internal capital accumulation with external sources to strengthen their capital base [6]