Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of mid-term dividend plans as a significant factor influencing stock prices, especially during the mid-term reporting period, encouraging investors to seek quality companies with a history of mid-term dividends for potential buying opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Mid-term Dividend Significance - Regulatory changes in 2024 have encouraged listed companies to increase dividend frequency and stabilize dividend expectations, making mid-term dividends a critical aspect for companies, particularly in cash-rich sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. - High dividend payout ratios reflect a company's financial health and free cash flow availability, with industries like liquor maintaining high gross margins (over 70%) and low capital expenditure needs, making dividends a primary profit distribution method [1][2]. - Companies with clear dividend plans often exhibit better governance transparency and capital allocation strategies, which can enhance investor confidence [1][2]. Group 2: Criteria for Selecting Mid-term Dividend Stocks - Investors should consider historical dividend records, prioritizing companies with a track record of mid-term dividends [2]. - Companies with strong operating cash flow relative to net profit are more likely to issue mid-term dividends, with a higher operating cash flow ratio indicating greater dividend potential [2]. - Industries with stable cash flows, such as consumer goods and utilities, are more likely to implement high dividends, while sectors like technology may have lower dividend ratios due to ongoing R&D needs [2]. Group 3: Dividend Traps to Avoid - High dividend payouts with low growth can indicate a company sacrificing future reinvestment capabilities, leading to declining performance, which investors should be cautious of [2]. - Companies may manipulate accounting profits through non-recurring gains, masking cash flow issues; thus, investors should verify the alignment between operating cash flow and net profit [2]. - During market downturns, high dividends may not offset systemic risks, and high dividend yield companies can still experience short-term corrections [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The search for mid-term dividend potential stocks is fundamentally about identifying cash cows and exemplary benchmarks, with a shift in the A-share market towards investment rather than financing [3]. - Investors are encouraged to seize short-term trading opportunities during the mid-term reporting season while maintaining a long-term holding strategy to benefit from both company growth and compounding dividends [3].

行业研究丨专题报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何评判房企的分红潜力？ ——微观比较系列报告之一 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 具备产品力、资产质量、运营效率和信用能力等优势的房企，在经营层面创造自由现金流的能 力更强，在没有扩大再投资压力的情况下，销售利润对应长期可分配资金，超额现金可提供额 外加成；但投拓端的过于集中和高溢价率加大经营开支，且为应对不确定性进一步预留超额现 金，短期均不利于分红。综合而言，财务稳健下有现金保障的利润是价值之源，销售利润加上 杠杆调节之后的广义自由现金流，要么用于再投资，要么用于分红。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 SAC：S0490520040001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何评判房企的分红潜力？ 2] ——微观比较系列报告之一 账面超额现金可以提供短期分红，但持续分红只能源自经营层面的自由现金流，在没有扩大再 投资（超额补货）的情况下，稳态视角的经营性自由现金流即销售利润，关键驱动因素在于销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to slight decreases in coal prices and volumes, with a focus on potential asset injections and dividend capabilities [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit in 2026 and 2027, with forecasts of 2.46 billion yuan and 2.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s coal production was 34.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 29.97 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 490.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it dropped to 426.1 yuan per ton, down 16.4% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.55 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.94 percentage points [6] Asset Injection and Growth Potential - There are expectations for asset injections from the parent company, which has a coal production capacity of nearly 400 million tons per year, compared to the company's current capacity of 34.5 million tons per year [6] - The company has significant room for capacity expansion, which could enhance its growth potential in the future [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.4, 7.8, and 7.3 [1][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.7% in 2024 to 10.3% in 2027, indicating a potential decrease in profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to falling self-produced coal prices, but it shows potential for high dividends and growth [1][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.6% [1][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 17.05 billion, 18.47 billion, and 19.07 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -11.8%, +8.3%, and +3.3% [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q1 2025 was 491.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The comprehensive cost of coal in Q1 2025 was 371 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year [4] Business Growth Potential - The company has ongoing construction of two coal mines, with expected production capacities of 4 million tons/year and 2.4 million tons/year, respectively [5] - The company plans to enhance its dividend payout, with a total cash dividend of 6.35 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend ratio of 32.87% [5] - The current dividend yield is 4.6%, indicating strong potential for continued high dividends [5] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.29, 1.39, and 1.44 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.1, 7.5, and 7.3 times [1][7] - The company's total market capitalization is 1384.20 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 955.47 billion yuan [1]