Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic economic data was mixed, with short - term export support, weakening investment, rising fiscal revenues and expenditures, and slightly pressured consumption. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should also focus on whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - The downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the expectation of fiscal expansion have led to a continuous rise in long - term US Treasury yields, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. The economic data of the US and the eurozone show different trends [2] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different commodities have different responses to tariffs, and the supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, with obvious re - export support and eased Sino - US tariffs. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenues and expenditures increased, supported by land transfer fees, and consumption was slightly pressured. The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] US and Global Economic Situation - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation is rising. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut expectation is postponed to September. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of four - week and eight - week Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. Japan's overseas net assets reached a record high but lost the position of the world's largest creditor nation. The eurozone's economic data weakened, while the US economic data improved [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, different commodities have different responses to tariffs. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. For agricultural products, the probability of price increase due to tariffs is higher. The supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Important News - China may relax rare - earth export controls on European chip companies. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. Trump praised the EU's progress in trade negotiations. Japan's Nippon Steel plans to acquire US Steel. Japan proposed to buy billions of dollars of US semiconductor products. Japan's 40 - year Treasury bond auction had a low bid - to - cover ratio, and bond yields rose. OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification. After the implementation of a package of financial policies, China's overall foreign trade in April slightly exceeded expectations, but there were differences in exports by country/region and product type. The central bank adjusted the LPR, and various economic and trade events occurred, including the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the adjustment of tariff counter - measures [1] - The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising. The "tax rate + quota" restriction idea between the UK and the US may impact global trade, and it is related to the negotiation process with other countries. The expected pressure on long - term inflation may be revised downwards, and the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is under pressure [2] - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different types of commodities have different price trends affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand relationships [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. By country/region, exports to the US decreased by 21% (previous value 9.1%), and exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (previous value 11.6%). By product, labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% (previous value 9.1%) [1] - On May 19, the central bank stated it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policies. On May 20, the central bank lowered the one - year and five - year LPR to 3% and 3.5% respectively [1] - On May 21, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill". China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version [1][6] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and maintained communication based on the Geneva talks consensus [1] - Before July, the macro - economy is expected to focus more on economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] Impact of US Tariff Policies - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at 25% [2] - The impact on global trade depends on the negotiation process with other countries. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction; India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement and expect to reach a temporary agreement before early July; South Korea is in the process of foreign exchange negotiations with the US [2][5] - The US Department of Commerce strengthened export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be suspected of being illegal [2] - The expected pressure on long - term inflation may be revised downwards. The US CPI data in April was lower than expected, indicating a further easing of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end. The Fed may adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is under pressure [2] Commodity Market Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first led to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of the US stock market adjustment. Agricultural products have relatively stable demand, and tariffs are more likely to cause upward price fluctuations [3] - In the energy sector, the IEA lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, resulting in a relatively loose supply in the medium - term fundamentals. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and LNG by the end of 2027 and impose new sanctions on Russia [3] Important News - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill" to improve the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities [6] - China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, taking a key step towards signing the upgrade protocol [6] - Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction; India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement before early July; South Korea is in the process of foreign exchange negotiations with the US [2][6] - The US House of Representatives reached an agreement on raising the SALT deduction cap, removing a key obstacle to the Trump tax cut bill [6] - US Treasury yields rose, causing the yield curve to steepen. The dollar weakened against major currencies, oil prices rose, and spot gold reached $3320 per ounce [2] - The EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia, and Chinese and UAE companies were included in the sanctions list. The EU plans to levy a €2 tax on small parcels entering the EU [3][5] - China expressed concerns about the US "Golden Dome" anti - missile system, stating that it violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space and exacerbates the risk of outer - space militarization [5]