Report Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - Market confidence has improved after the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States on June 5th. Before July, the macro - situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - Trump's tariff policies are inconsistent. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump later announced to raise the steel import tariff. The Trump administration has issued an emergency letter, asking countries to submit the best trade negotiation plan before June 4th [2] - There are potential liquidity risks in the US. Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating. The US debt is expected to rise, and the "sell US" trade is heating up. In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered, and short - term energy is in a game around the fact of production increase [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's export was slightly better than expected, with re - export being a significant support. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both increased, with land transfer fees supporting the revenue. Consumption was under pressure. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1, but corporate profit was under pressure due to rising costs and falling selling prices. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the leaders of the two countries had a phone call, improving market confidence [1] Tariff Policies - On May 28th, the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped. On May 30th, Trump announced to raise the steel import tariff from 25% to 50%, effective on June 4th. The Trump administration has asked countries to submit trade negotiation plans before June 4th, or face high - penalty measures. Different countries have different responses to US tariffs [2] Risk and Market Outlook - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt is expected to rise, leading to an increase in the "sell US" trade. The eurozone's May composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 5th. The US May Markit PMI improved to some extent, but the ADP employment number in May was far lower than expected. The US House of Representatives' tax clause in the "Big Beautiful Act" may escalate the trade war into a capital war [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, long - term stagflation allocation should be considered. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. The price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. In the energy market, OPEC decided to increase production, but the actual production has not increased as of early June. Gold should be watched for low - level opportunities [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Important News - On June 5th, the European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2%, the main refinancing rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.4%. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US new restrictions on China, opposing the US 301 tariffs. China's Caixin Services PMI in May rose to 51.1. Trump has restricted the entry of citizens from some countries and the visas of foreign students at Harvard University [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Regarding commodities, be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products from the US stock adjustment, and the price of agricultural products may rise due to tariffs. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas, and OPEC+ may increase production [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. US Market - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries [2]. Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases shows a pattern of first trading the decline in demand and then trading the rise in inflation. Be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals from the US stock adjustment. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. The price of crude oil has declined, and OPEC+ will increase production in June and may further increase production in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas [2]. Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] To - Do News - The Fed meeting minutes show increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, and a cautious monetary policy is appropriate. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India, the US and the UK. The US government restricts the sale of semiconductor software services to China. The US International Trade Court's ruling on tariffs has been appealed. Japan will issue 800 billion yen in 30 - year government bonds. OPEC+ will discuss production increases in July [2][5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic economic data was mixed, with short - term export support, weakening investment, rising fiscal revenues and expenditures, and slightly pressured consumption. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should also focus on whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - The downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the expectation of fiscal expansion have led to a continuous rise in long - term US Treasury yields, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. The economic data of the US and the eurozone show different trends [2] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different commodities have different responses to tariffs, and the supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, with obvious re - export support and eased Sino - US tariffs. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenues and expenditures increased, supported by land transfer fees, and consumption was slightly pressured. The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] US and Global Economic Situation - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation is rising. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut expectation is postponed to September. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of four - week and eight - week Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. Japan's overseas net assets reached a record high but lost the position of the world's largest creditor nation. The eurozone's economic data weakened, while the US economic data improved [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, different commodities have different responses to tariffs. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. For agricultural products, the probability of price increase due to tariffs is higher. The supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Important News - China may relax rare - earth export controls on European chip companies. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. Trump praised the EU's progress in trade negotiations. Japan's Nippon Steel plans to acquire US Steel. Japan proposed to buy billions of dollars of US semiconductor products. Japan's 40 - year Treasury bond auction had a low bid - to - cover ratio, and bond yields rose. OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [5]