FICC日报 | 2025-06-06 中美两国元首通话，市场信心改善 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加 码的可能。中国5月财新服务业PMI升至51.1，显示服务业扩张加速，但成本上升与销售价格下行导致企业盈利压 力加剧。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方 承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。中美两国元首于6月5日晚进行通话，市场信心改善。7月前宏观预计更多 围绕经济事实验证展开，尤其关注关税和谈后是否出现新一轮的"抢出口"。 特朗普关税再反转。5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的加征关税 行政令越权，判定总统无权以贸易失衡为由对多国加征全面关税，该行政令将被撤销并禁止执行。5月30日，特朗 普表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Regarding commodities, be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products from the US stock adjustment, and the price of agricultural products may rise due to tariffs. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas, and OPEC+ may increase production [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. US Market - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries [2]. Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases shows a pattern of first trading the decline in demand and then trading the rise in inflation. Be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals from the US stock adjustment. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. The price of crude oil has declined, and OPEC+ will increase production in June and may further increase production in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas [2]. Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] To - Do News - The Fed meeting minutes show increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, and a cautious monetary policy is appropriate. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India, the US and the UK. The US government restricts the sale of semiconductor software services to China. The US International Trade Court's ruling on tariffs has been appealed. Japan will issue 800 billion yen in 30 - year government bonds. OPEC+ will discuss production increases in July [2][5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic economic data was mixed, with short - term export support, weakening investment, rising fiscal revenues and expenditures, and slightly pressured consumption. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should also focus on whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - The downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the expectation of fiscal expansion have led to a continuous rise in long - term US Treasury yields, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. The economic data of the US and the eurozone show different trends [2] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different commodities have different responses to tariffs, and the supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, with obvious re - export support and eased Sino - US tariffs. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenues and expenditures increased, supported by land transfer fees, and consumption was slightly pressured. The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] US and Global Economic Situation - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation is rising. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut expectation is postponed to September. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of four - week and eight - week Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. Japan's overseas net assets reached a record high but lost the position of the world's largest creditor nation. The eurozone's economic data weakened, while the US economic data improved [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, different commodities have different responses to tariffs. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. For agricultural products, the probability of price increase due to tariffs is higher. The supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Important News - China may relax rare - earth export controls on European chip companies. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. Trump praised the EU's progress in trade negotiations. Japan's Nippon Steel plans to acquire US Steel. Japan proposed to buy billions of dollars of US semiconductor products. Japan's 40 - year Treasury bond auction had a low bid - to - cover ratio, and bond yields rose. OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [5]