Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][8] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies [1][16] - Tin: Range trading [1][18] - Gold: Range trading [1][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 4700 level for 01 contract [21][22] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 2400 level for 01 contract [23][24] - Benzene ethylene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 6500 level [24][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on the 15000 level as support [26] - Urea: Range - bound, 01 contract range 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - Methanol: Range - bound, 01 contract range 2030 - 2250 [29] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound and focus on 6800 support, PP to range - bound weakly and focus on 6500 support [31] - Soda ash: Short - selling for 01 contract [31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [34] - PTA: Low - level range - bound, range 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [35] - Red dates: Range - bound with a weak bias [36][37] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [38][39] - Eggs: Limited upside [40][41] - Corn: Bottom - building in range [42][43] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [44][45] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding, buy cautiously for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [45][51] Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external influences [5][7][10] - For most varieties, the short - term market is in a state of range - bound or with a certain bias, and investors need to pay attention to key price levels, supply - demand changes, and policy signals [21][23][26] - Some varieties are expected to have long - term positive trends, but short - term fluctuations and uncertainties still exist, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to market conditions [5][11][40] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures may range - bound in the short - term due to market hot - spot rotation and unclear main lines, but are long - term optimistic. The end of the US government shutdown, changes in China's social financing and loan data, and market regulatory policies are influencing factors [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to range - bound. The third - quarter monetary policy report shows a stable and moderately loose tone, and the follow - up interest - rate cut space is affected by the relationship between various interest rates [5] Black building materials - Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading. The coking coal market has weak demand and falling prices, while rebar has low valuation and limited downward space despite production and demand declines [1][7] - Glass is advised to sell call options. With production cuts, weak demand, high inventory, and no strong short - to - medium - term positive expectations, the market is bearish [8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is in high - level range - bound. Although there are long - term positive factors such as supply tightening and increasing demand, short - term price increases suppress downstream demand, and inventory accumulation may lead to price adjustments [10][11] - Aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply and demand of aluminum and its upstream materials are complex, and the market is trading the expectation of overseas supply reduction, but there are risks of over - trading [10][12] - Nickel is suggested to wait and see or short on rallies. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings supply uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is for range trading. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak, and the price is supported by inventory levels [18] - Gold and silver are for range trading. Affected by the US government shutdown, employment data, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are in a short - term adjustment state but have medium - term support [18][20] Energy and chemicals - PVC, caustic soda, and benzene ethylene are expected to range - bound with a weak bias. They are affected by factors such as high supply, weak demand, cost fluctuations, and macro - policies [21][23][26] - Rubber is range - bound. Cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand support raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory is seasonally increasing [26] - Urea and methanol are range - bound. Urea production increases, and demand and inventory changes affect the price; methanol shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with inventory accumulation [28][29] - Polyolefins are expected to be range - bound with a weak bias. Supply pressure increases, demand improvement is limited, and cost support weakens [31] - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling for the 01 contract. Supply exceeds demand, and although cost increases, supply pressure remains high [31][33] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to range - bound. Global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by factors such as the progress of seed - cotton acquisition and Sino - US trade negotiations [34] - PTA is in low - level range - bound. Oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and weak fundamentals lead to inventory accumulation and price suppression [34][35] - Apples are range - bound with a strong bias. With the end of ground trading and the start of出库, the decrease in production and quality supports the price [35] - Red dates are range - bound with a weak bias. The purchase enthusiasm of merchants is low, and the price shows a slight decline [36][37] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs: The short - term price is in narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to - long - term supply before the first half of next year remains high, with prices under pressure. Different contracts have different investment strategies [38][39][40] - Eggs: The short - term supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. The 12 - contract can be shorted on rallies, and the 01 - contract is range - bound [40][41] - Corn: The short - term price rebounds under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term has cost support but limited upside space. The 01 - contract can be hedged on rallies, and 3 - 5 positive spreads can be concerned [42][43] - Soybean meal: It is in range - bound. The US soybean market is affected by reports and Brazilian planting progress, and domestic prices are affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [44][45] - Oils and fats: They are expected to bottom - build and rebound. Different oils have different supply and demand situations, and short - term long - buying and certain spread - trading strategies are recommended [45][51]