Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [1][2]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings, citing uncertainties related to U.S. import tariffs, even after the U.S. reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15% [2]. - As of the latest data, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 0.918%, while the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.64%. The 30-year yield, however, fell by 3.5 basis points to 3.159% [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Japan's overall inflation rate decreased from 3.1% in July to 2.7%, marking the lowest level since November 2024. The "core-core" inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, fell to 3.3% from 3.4% in July [3]. - The Bank of Japan noted a "moderate" rise in inflation expectations, influenced by rising food prices, with core inflation projected between 2.5% and 3% [2][3]. Financial Market Developments - Japanese stock prices have risen, boosting the financial assets held by individuals in Japan, which totaled approximately 223.8 trillion yen (about 1.52 trillion USD) in Q2, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase. Stock holdings grew by 4.9%, and investment trusts increased by 9% [3]. - Recent data indicated that Japanese investors net purchased 1.4785 trillion yen in overseas long-term bonds while reducing short-term bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings of Japanese long-term bonds by 845.3 billion yen [3]. U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of the end of July, Japan held 1.1514 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of 3.8 billion USD from the previous month and up 57.9 billion USD year-on-year, making Japan the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4].

人民财讯9月18日电，英国央行维持利率在4%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its current interest rate level, with discussions on potential rate cuts possibly resuming in the fall if signs of economic slowdown in Europe emerge [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank is in an "ideal state" after keeping the benchmark interest rate at 2.00%, marking the end of a year-long rate-cutting cycle [1] - The ECB's latest economic forecasts suggest that inflation will dip below the 2.00% target next year before gradually recovering, which includes considerations for potential future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the eurozone economy has proven more resilient than expected, with the inflation rate having fallen to the ECB's target of 2.00% [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index indicates an acceleration in summer business activity, with new orders in August rising for the first time since May 2024, leading to increased investor optimism regarding the eurozone economic outlook [1] Group 3: External Factors - The 15% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on European goods aligns with ECB predictions, suggesting that external trade policies are influencing economic conditions [1] - Officials have warned that the recent uptick in orders may be a result of U.S. importers placing bulk orders to avoid tariffs, indicating a potential demand drop in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - Israeli Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including weapon depots and rocket launchers, claiming their presence violated agreements between Israel and Lebanon [3] Group 2 - NATO defense ministers from 32 member countries confirmed support for Ukraine during a video conference, emphasizing the priority of achieving a just and lasting peace [5] - The European Union is considering establishing a treaty equivalent to NATO's Article 5 for Ukraine, which would ensure collective defense in case of an attack on any member [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, citing economic uncertainty and a slight increase in inflation [7] - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market and advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut to prevent further weakening [7] Group 4 - The American Soybean Association urged the U.S. government to reach an agreement with China to alleviate financial pressures on soybean farmers, highlighting a significant drop in soybean prices and rising production costs [9] - Prior to 2018, 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, which accounted for 60% of total soybean exports during that period [9] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [9] Group 5 - The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft guideline for antitrust measures in the public utility sector, addressing issues of market dominance and unfair practices [11][12] - The guideline aims to clarify the principles of antitrust enforcement in public utilities, which include water, electricity, gas, and waste management, and to provide clearer compliance guidance for operators [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, noted that the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates is based on the need to carefully assess both domestic and international economic developments [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep interest rates unchanged [1] - This decision reflects a cautious approach towards evaluating the current economic situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the Fed's cautious approach amid current economic conditions [1] - This move is consistent with the Fed's strategy to monitor economic indicators before making further adjustments [1] - The stability in interest rates may influence market sentiment and investment strategies in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold in the foreseeable future due to uncertainties surrounding trade wars and tariffs, particularly with the impending threat from President Trump to increase tariffs on Canadian goods if a trade agreement is not reached [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time, aligning with expectations [1] - Economists predict that the Bank of Canada will keep the interest rate unchanged in the near term, but a potential cut of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out [1] - It is anticipated that the policy rate will not fall below 2% unless the Bank of Canada is confident that inflation is under control and economic weakness requires stimulus [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada decided to maintain interest rates due to the resilience shown by the Canadian economy and the ongoing underlying inflationary pressures [1] Economic Performance - The Canadian economy has demonstrated a certain level of resilience, which influenced the decision to keep interest rates unchanged [1] - There are persistent underlying inflationary pressures that the Bank of Canada is monitoring [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that if the Bank of Canada maintains interest rates, the Canadian dollar (CAD) may depreciate, indicating a potential for future rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The market anticipates only a 15 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting a conservative pricing approach [1] - **Economic Risks** - Economic risks stemming from US-Canada trade negotiations may lead the Bank of Canada to encourage market expectations for further rate cuts, putting additional pressure on the CAD [1] - **Currency Forecast** - The expectation is that the USD/CAD exchange rate will reach 1.39 in the current quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) officials, specifically Kazimir, indicated that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in September, provided there are no severe shocks to the economy [1] Group 1 - ECB's stance on interest rates is contingent on the absence of significant economic disruptions [1]