每经AI快讯，2月18日，新西兰联储将利率维持在2.25%不变，符合市场预期，结束此前连续三次会议 的降息。 ...

每经AI快讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为7.8%，维持利率不变的概率为 92.2%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率25.3%，维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为52.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of the New York stock market following the release of January's non-farm employment data, with all three major indices closing lower despite initial gains [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,121.4 points, down 66.74 points or 0.13%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced slight declines [1] - The S&P 500 index saw eight sectors rise and three fall, with the energy and consumer staples sectors leading gains at 2.59% and 1.40%, respectively, while the financial and communication services sectors led losses at 1.49% and 1.31% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 130,000 non-farm jobs were added in January, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 70,000 and the previous month's 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% from 4.4% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market [1] - Economists noted that the strong job growth was primarily driven by the healthcare and social assistance sectors, suggesting a stabilization in the job market [2] Group 3 - Market analysts expressed cautious optimism regarding the employment data, with some indicating that while the job market is moving in the right direction, it still faces significant challenges [2][3] - The FedWatch Tool indicated a 94.1% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates at the next policy meeting in March, a notable increase from the previous day's 79.9% [3] - The report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates, as it reflects stronger economic growth and improvements in the labor market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 86.6% [1] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 25.5%, with a 72.2% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 2.2% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [1] Summary by Categories - **Interest Rate Cut Probabilities** - Probability of a 25 basis point cut by March is 13.4% [1] - Cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by April is 25.5% [1] - Probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by April is 2.2% [1] - **Interest Rate Maintenance Probabilities** - Probability of maintaining the current interest rate by March is 86.6% [1] - Probability of maintaining the current interest rate by April is 72.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank has maintained its interest rate at 1.75%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the central bank's assessment of the current economic conditions [1] - This move is consistent with the central bank's strategy to manage inflation and support economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Asset Management predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at least until the first half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The firm expects inflation to accelerate again around mid-2026, reaching its peak due to fiscal stimulus supporting spending and the transfer of tariff costs [1] - Hiring activity is anticipated to receive a temporary boost, alongside weak growth in labor supply, which should help keep the unemployment rate in check [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 31.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 68.2% [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the release of the October non-farm payroll report, stating that it will be combined with November data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expresses a preference to maintain interest rates unchanged due to inflation being a greater risk [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Bostic indicates a tendency to keep interest rates steady, highlighting concerns over inflation as a significant risk factor [1] Economic Outlook - The statement reflects ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape, with inflation remaining a focal point for monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [1][2]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings, citing uncertainties related to U.S. import tariffs, even after the U.S. reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15% [2]. - As of the latest data, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 0.918%, while the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.64%. The 30-year yield, however, fell by 3.5 basis points to 3.159% [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Japan's overall inflation rate decreased from 3.1% in July to 2.7%, marking the lowest level since November 2024. The "core-core" inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, fell to 3.3% from 3.4% in July [3]. - The Bank of Japan noted a "moderate" rise in inflation expectations, influenced by rising food prices, with core inflation projected between 2.5% and 3% [2][3]. Financial Market Developments - Japanese stock prices have risen, boosting the financial assets held by individuals in Japan, which totaled approximately 223.8 trillion yen (about 1.52 trillion USD) in Q2, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase. Stock holdings grew by 4.9%, and investment trusts increased by 9% [3]. - Recent data indicated that Japanese investors net purchased 1.4785 trillion yen in overseas long-term bonds while reducing short-term bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings of Japanese long-term bonds by 845.3 billion yen [3]. U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of the end of July, Japan held 1.1514 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of 3.8 billion USD from the previous month and up 57.9 billion USD year-on-year, making Japan the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the central bank's strategy to manage economic conditions [1]