Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports the FOMC's potential interest rate cut in December for "risk management" purposes, highlighting a weak labor market and stagnant economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. labor market remains weak, approaching stagnation [1] - Excluding tariff impacts, core inflation is close to the 2% target [1] - Mid-term and long-term inflation expectations are anchored [1] Group 2: GDP and Housing Market - After excluding the effects of the government shutdown, GDP may slow down in the second half of 2025 [1] - Many households are struggling to afford homes and cars [1] Group 3: Employment Trends - The demand for workers is decreasing at a faster rate than the decline in supply [1] - Many companies are laying off employees or allowing headcount to decrease [1]

Core Insights - The chief economist of Pantheon-Macroeconomics, Gregory Daco, predicts that the U.S. September CPI data will confirm a renewed acceleration in inflation, with significant price momentum observed in both goods and services [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming increasingly evident, although the transmission process remains slow and uneven [1]

Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the ruling party's ability to secure a majority in the upcoming July 20 Senate elections has led to selling pressure on the yen [1] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar fell to the 149 yen range for the first time in three months, indicating market concerns about the ruling party's potential loss of majority [1] - A survey conducted by the Nikkei on July 13-15 revealed that the ruling coalition's ability to secure the necessary 50 seats has become precarious, raising fears of increased government debt if they need to cooperate with opposition parties advocating for expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, up from 2.4% in May, which has cooled expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The confirmation of accelerating inflation has contributed to a stronger dollar against various currencies, further exacerbating the selling pressure on the yen [2]