证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 12 月 PMI 重回扩张区间，关注通用设备、机器人 ——机械行业周报（2025.12.29~2025.12.31） 相关研究： 1.《20251213湘财证券-机械行业：持续 推荐锂电专用设备、燃气轮机、机器 人》 2.《20251221湘财证券-机械行业：11月 工程机械需求持续好转，工业机器人产 量保持快速增长》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 6.9 3.4 27.5 绝对收益 9.1 3.2 50.2 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 通用设备：2025 年 12 月 PMI 为 50.1%，环比上升 0. ...

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In November 2025, sales of construction machinery showed mixed results, with 8 products experiencing year-on-year growth while 4 declined, particularly driven by strong demand for cranes, which saw sales growth of 16.6% for truck cranes, 44.6% for all-terrain cranes, and 66.2% for crawler cranes, largely due to wind power installations and electrification trends [2][3] - Excavator sales in November increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up 9.1% and exports up 18.8%, attributed to recovering demand in Europe and the US, as well as sustained high demand in mining [2][3] - The loader segment also saw significant growth, with total sales up 32.1% year-on-year, driven by replacement demand and electrification, with electric loader penetration reaching approximately 25.7% in November [2][3] - Forklift sales rose by 14.1% year-on-year in November, with domestic sales increasing by 23.9%, primarily due to equipment upgrades and electrification [3] - The outlook for the machinery industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in domestic sales driven by major projects and overseas demand from emerging markets and mineral-rich countries [2][3] Group 2: Machine Tool Sector - In November 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools was approximately 71,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, while cumulative production from January to November reached 783,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [4][5] - The production of metal forming machine tools in November was about 15,000 units, up 7.1% year-on-year, with cumulative production for the year at 161,000 units, also showing a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [4][5] - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 1.9% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth, while manufacturing profits increased by 7.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed [5] Group 3: Robotics Industry - Industrial robot production in November 2025 reached approximately 70,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with cumulative production from January to November at 674,000 units, up 29.2% [5] - Strategic partnerships in the robotics sector are emerging, such as the collaboration between UBTECH and Texas Instruments, which aims to enhance the deployment of humanoid robots in manufacturing [5] - The introduction of innovative humanoid robots, such as the TRON 2 by Zhijidongli, showcases advancements in modular design and adaptability for various operational tasks [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in November rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a recovery in production and new orders, driven by the end of the National Day holiday effects and positive outcomes from US-China trade talks [6] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery sector, highlighting the potential for sustained growth in the construction machinery segment and the burgeoning humanoid robotics market [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1][5] Core Views - The machinery industry is experiencing accelerated growth in production and sales, particularly in general equipment and engineering machinery, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year [3][4][5] - The manufacturing PMI in June 2025 rose to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand, which is expected to support machinery equipment demand [5] Summary by Sections General Automation Equipment - In June 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools reached approximately 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a cumulative production of about 403,000 units in the first half of the year, up 13.5% year-on-year [3] - The production of industrial robots in June 2025 was about 75,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 37.9%, indicating a recovery in downstream manufacturing demand [3] Engineering Machinery - In June 2025, 8 out of 12 types of engineering machinery saw sales growth, including excavators (13.3%) and truck cranes (39.0%), while 4 types experienced declines [4] - The overall performance of engineering machinery exceeded expectations, with a positive outlook for continued growth driven by domestic demand recovery and increased penetration of new energy products [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth, highlighting companies such as Anhui Heli, HANGCHA Group, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [5] - The general equipment sector is also recommended, particularly companies like Haomai Technology, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing sector [5] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of 27.5% and an absolute return of 42.2% [2][9] - As of July 20, 2025, the machinery industry's PE (TTM) was 33.2 times, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [12] Key Companies and Forecasts - Key companies in the machinery sector include Huichuan Technology, SANY Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and XCMG, all rated as "Buy" with positive revenue and profit growth forecasts for the coming years [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [3] Core Views - Industrial revenue growth in China has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for industrial enterprises from January to May 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Total profits for industrial enterprises decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone [5] - The engineering machinery market is experiencing weaker expectations and operating rates as it enters the off-season, with a notable decline in the proportion of agents expecting increased excavator sales [6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in manufacturing sentiment due to policy effects and easing trade tensions [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past month, the machinery industry has seen a relative return of -1.0% and an absolute return of 1.2%. In the last three months, the relative return is -3.8%, while the absolute return is -3.6%. However, over the past year, the industry has outperformed with a relative return of 17.1% and an absolute return of 30.4% [4][9] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - Major companies in the machinery sector are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery receiving "Buy" ratings based on their expected revenue and profit growth [20] Basic Data - The report highlights that the cumulative issuance of special bonds by local governments has been increasing, which may support infrastructure investment and, consequently, machinery demand [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - In May, forklift sales showed a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with domestic sales increasing by 9.3% and exports rising by 16.6%. The overall trend indicates a gradual recovery in downstream demand [3] - The demand for various types of lifting machinery remains weak, with domestic sales of automotive cranes, crawler cranes, truck-mounted cranes, and tower cranes declining significantly due to ongoing real estate market challenges [4] - Sales of aerial work platforms also experienced a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 26.2% in May, indicating a continued downturn in this segment [5] - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, suggesting that policy effects are beginning to show, and there is potential for continued growth in domestic forklift demand [6][22] - Despite weak performance in lifting machinery and aerial platforms, the overall market outlook remains positive due to recovering demand in other machinery segments, such as excavators and road machinery [7] Summary by Sections Forklift Market - In May, total forklift sales in China increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.3% and exports up by 16.6%. For the first five months of 2025, total forklift sales grew by 9.3% year-on-year [3] Lifting Machinery - In May, domestic sales of automotive cranes, crawler cranes, truck-mounted cranes, and tower cranes saw declines of 3.4%, 3.4%, 27.5%, and 51.7% respectively, primarily due to the sluggish real estate market [4] Aerial Work Platforms - Sales of aerial work platforms fell by 26.2% year-on-year in May, with domestic sales down by 48.1% [5] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May, indicating a recovery in production and new orders, which bodes well for future forklift demand [6][22] Overall Market Outlook - While the lifting machinery and aerial platform segments are facing challenges, the overall machinery market is expected to benefit from recovering demand in other areas, with a focus on companies like Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and LiuGong [7]