Group 1 - U.S. manufacturing activity continued to contract in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline, driven by slowing production and weak demand [1][2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI index fell by 0.4 points to 48.7, remaining below the neutral line of 50, with most of the year spent in a narrow range [1] - The manufacturing output index dropped by 2.8 points to 48.2, entering contraction territory for the second time in three months [1] Group 2 - The ISM employment index has contracted for nine consecutive months, showing slight improvement from September but still within the contraction zone [1] - Twelve manufacturing sectors contracted in October, with textiles, apparel, and furniture performing the worst, while only six sectors, including basic metals and transportation equipment, recorded growth [2] - New orders shrank for the second consecutive month, although the rate of contraction slowed compared to September, and backlogged orders continued to decrease [2] Group 3 - Manufacturers faced multiple pressures from trade policy uncertainty, supply chain adjustments, and weak customer demand [2] - Inventory levels for manufacturers saw the largest decline in a year, while customer inventories remained low, theoretically providing space for future order rebounds, though short-term demand remains weak [2] - Analysts expect limited recovery momentum in manufacturing due to fluctuating tariff policies, global manufacturing slowdown, and cautious U.S. corporate capital spending, with a continued low outlook for the fourth quarter [2]

Core Insights - The manufacturing index in the U.S. dropped sharply by nearly 21 points in September, recording a value of -8.7, significantly below the market expectation of 5.0, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - New orders and shipments indices fell to their lowest levels since April 2024, reflecting a notable slowdown in domestic demand [1] - The employment index for manufacturing turned negative for the first time since May 2025, indicating a reduction in job positions, while the work hours index also declined, further confirming weakened industry sentiment [1] - Although the business outlook index for the next six months appears slightly optimistic compared to the current situation, the New York Fed noted that "optimism remains relatively low," suggesting a cautious attitude towards future expansion [1] - Despite a slight decrease in the manufacturing price index and price paid index, they remain at high levels, indicating that inflationary pressures have not fully eased [1] - The survey responses were collected from September 2 to September 9, but specific details regarding the sample size and industry distribution were not disclosed [1] - The ISM manufacturing index has been in contraction territory for six consecutive months, aligning with the trends observed in the New York Fed index [1] - Market analysis indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has faced uncertainty for the past four months, although the report did not directly link this to specific policy factors, and the impacts remain to be verified [1]

Market Performance - US stock market opened lower but rebounded, with the Dow Jones up 0.08%, marking the third consecutive day of gains, while the Nasdaq rose 0.67% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.41% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Micron Technology up nearly 4%, AMD and Meta up over 3%, and Nvidia up over 1% [1] Economic Indicators - US import indicators have dropped to their lowest level in 16 years, reflecting reduced procurement by businesses facing rising tariffs [2] - The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell by 0.2 points to 48.5, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - The ISM import index saw a significant decline of 7.2 points to 39.9, marking one of the largest monthly drops historically [2] Trade Policy Developments - The Trump administration is seeking to appeal a court ruling that deemed its tariff policies "illegal," following a preliminary injunction from a federal court in Washington D.C. [3] - The U.S. International Trade Court has also ruled against the enforcement of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices increased as OPEC+ production rises were lower than expected, with WTI crude oil up 2.85% to nearly $63 per barrel [4] - Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iran, along with wildfires in Canada affecting production, have contributed to the rise in oil prices [4]