机构认为，汇价短期仍有下行压力，跌破1.3640或下探1.3550—1.3580，反弹阻力在1.3720—1.3750及 1.3800。中长期走势取决于三大变量：美加政策分化持续性、油价复苏态势、加国经济多元化及美加贸 易谈判结果。 加元与油价高度绑定，近期WTI原油企稳反弹至57.20美元/桶，中东局势引发的供应担忧是主因，直接 支撑加元，抵消部分年内油价下跌的冲击。但WCS与WTI价差及油价整体弱势仍制约加元，避免汇价 单边急跌。 北美贸易不确定性持续影响加元。美墨加协定审议临近，加拿大谈判态度拉长不确定性，推升加元风险 溢价；美国钢铝关税则抑制加国商业投资，对加元基本面构成压力。 技术面看，美元兑加元自11月高点震荡下行，处于下降通道，跌破1.3700支撑位后在1.3640—1.3660测 试低点，空头主导。均线空头排列压制汇价，RSI未达超卖区，MACD零轴下方运行，下行动能仍存。 2025年12月末，美元兑加元延续下行，12月29日亚洲时段汇价跌至1.3660附近，逼近12月26日创下的五 个月低点1.3642。年末政策预期、油价及地缘风险主导走势，当前弱势源于美联储宽松预期与加央行中 性立场分化， ...

Core Insights - The report from Deutsche Bank indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD) is influenced by multiple factors, with the USD/CAD exchange rate expected to decline to 1.3700 by December [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Predictions - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the USD/CAD exchange rate will decrease from the current 1.3782 to 1.3700 by December [1] - The report highlights that the CAD is likely to appreciate gradually against a weakening USD, while depreciating against the Euro [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to uncertainties in US-Canada trade relations, which are expected to persist until resolved [1] - Following a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, further rate cuts may be anticipated to support the domestic economy [1] Group 3: Influencing Factors on USD - The report attributes potential weakness in the USD to the "unstable" political situation in the US, possible significant interest rate cuts, and risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing weakness due to the recent decline in international oil prices, which is closely linked to the performance of CAD as a commodity currency [1] - Despite a recent improvement in Canadian retail sales data providing a temporary boost to market sentiment, the overall outlook for CAD remains negative amid global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties [1] - CAD faces significant upward resistance and lacks the internal momentum for a sustained rebound unless oil prices trend upward or global risk appetite shifts significantly [1] Group 2 - If the USD/CAD exchange rate breaks above 1.3900, it may further test resistance levels at 1.3950 and the psychological level of 1.4000, with a potential new bullish trend if it surpasses the May high of 1.4015 [2] - The current rise in USD/CAD is primarily driven by the divergence in policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada [2] - Key support levels for USD/CAD are in the range of 1.3855-1.3850, with further attention on 1.3800 and the 100-day moving average if it breaks below [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Export Development Agency predicts that the Canadian dollar will remain stable, with an average exchange rate of 72 cents against the US dollar by 2025 [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a stable outlook for the Canadian dollar, suggesting resilience in the currency despite global economic fluctuations [1] - The average exchange rate projection of 72 cents reflects confidence in the Canadian economy's performance over the next few years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar has appreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar in the second quarter, driven by rising oil prices and negative sentiment towards the US dollar, despite domestic economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Domestic demand in Canada is weak, and the unemployment rate is rising, which casts a shadow over the outlook for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian bank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in July, contrary to current expectations, which may weaken the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Political and Market Dynamics - The recent throne speech in Ottawa marks a departure from the practices of the Trudeau era, making Canada more attractive for private capital [1] - The Canadian bank projects that the USD/CAD exchange rate will peak at 1.38 before trending towards 1.34 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the Canadian dollar is logical following the U.S. federal court's blocking of the Trump administration's comprehensive tariff policy, but further appreciation may be limited [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The close trade relationship between Canada and the U.S. supports the Canadian dollar due to reduced prospects for cross-border trade disruptions and improved growth expectations in the U.S. [1] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes may lead to a further reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could suppress the appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar reached its strongest level since October 17, trading at 1.3766 USD per CAD [1]