交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-12-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2340至2400区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2560，基差173，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 6. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-12-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2300至2360区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差176，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0.02万吨，上周0.02万吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 99.29%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力空单减少，资金流入，偏空 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影响回归震荡，加上近期国内菜粕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a neutral state with short - term oscillations. It is influenced by the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the potential changes in China - Canada trade relations. The market is waiting for more clarity on these factors [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, leading to a short - term tight supply in the spot market and a decrease in demand, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain, pending further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Future geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from 1.8 tons last week and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 tons last year. - The spot price is 2480, with a basis of 155, indicating a premium over the futures price. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian has been fluctuating between 2460 - 2500 from October 15 - 24. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 2601 and 2605 have also shown certain fluctuations during the same period. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have decreased from 9089 on October 15 to 4260 on October 24. - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has been fluctuating between 491 - 523 from October 16 - 24 [12][14][16]. 3.7 Other Related Information - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price has been relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has shown a slight fluctuation, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has been oscillating at a low level. - The import volume of rapeseed has remained stable in October, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has remained flat week - on - week. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has remained at a low level. - The price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [17][19][22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, domestic aquaculture demand, and supply changes. In the short term, it shows a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The rapeseed meal market is affected by profit - taking and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased slightly in August, and the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in inventory, production, and consumption over the years [23][24]. - **Price data**: The trading average price, trading volume, and price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 6 - 15 are presented, as well as the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices during the same period [12][14]. - **Inventory data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.52% and a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. The arrival of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has returned to a low level while rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [8][25][27]. - **Production data**: The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports are mentioned. Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp - shellfish prices remain stable [31][33][35]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed in [8].