华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 十年苦读付流水，一代人的血与泪。 文 ｜ 大南 来源｜ 华商韬略（ID：hstl8888） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 1222万——这一创纪录的数字，是今年即将毕业的大学生数量。正在奔赴职场的他们组成了 "史上最大应届生求职潮" 。 与这一庞大求职群体形成鲜明对比的是：智联招聘数据显示，2024届硕士及博士毕业生offer获取率为44.4%，不仅同比下降12.3%，更是低于本科毕业生的 45.4%。本科毕业生则低于大专毕业生的56.6%。 求职难，是当前海量大学生的切身感受，背后引出了一个热门话题——"学历贬值"。 以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 根据银河证券的预测，这种趋势短时间内难以缓解，大学生毕业人数仍将逐年增长，直至2038年达到1445万人为顶峰。这意味着 只有2017年后出生的人， 才能避开大学生求职的高峰期。 有人开玩笑说："21世纪最贵的是人才，21世纪贬值最快的却是学历。" 其实，"学历贬值"现象并非中国独有，隔壁的日本积累了近30年的"血泪经验"，其中的得与失，极具参考价值。 迷失的一代 "只要考上大学，一辈子就稳了。" 这是80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China and draws parallels with Japan's historical experience during its economic downturn in the 1990s [4][20]. Group 1: Current Situation of Graduates - In 2024, the number of university graduates in China is expected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is projected to continue until 2038, when it will peak at 14.45 million [4]. Group 2: Historical Context from Japan - In the 1980s, Japan experienced a booming economy where university graduates were highly sought after, with many receiving multiple job offers before graduation [5][6]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in job opportunities, with the employment rate for graduates dropping significantly [8][9]. - The term "lost generation" emerged in Japan, referring to those who graduated during the economic downturn and faced severe employment challenges [12]. Group 3: Government Responses and Consequences - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students and promoting vocational training [13][15]. - Despite these efforts, the oversupply of graduates and the lack of corresponding job opportunities led to a rise in "high-education refugees" and "浪人博士" (wandering PhDs) [15][19]. - The shift towards non-regular employment, such as temporary and contract work, became prevalent, further complicating the job market for graduates [16][19]. Group 4: Lessons Learned - Japan's experience highlights the importance of aligning higher education with market needs and the dangers of overemphasizing degree attainment without corresponding job creation [21]. - The article suggests that economic growth and innovation are crucial for creating job opportunities that can absorb the increasing number of graduates [21].