本文来自微信公众号：青年探索杂志，作者：赵怀娟（安徽师范大学法学院教授、博士生导师），原文标题：《赵怀娟 ｜就业困境 中的"全职儿女"：类型分化与成因分析》，题图来自：视觉中国 在社会竞争加剧叠加就业压力下，一部分青年选择了特殊的职业形式——"全职儿女"，受到了社会的广泛关注，在各大网络平台上展 开了热烈的讨论。2022年12月，豆瓣成立了"全职儿女工作交流中心"的讨论小组（下文简称"豆瓣小组"），半年内就有4600多人加 入；在小红书上，关于"全职儿女"的笔记更是数以万计。如何看待这一群体，却存在争议。 作为一个新名词，"全职儿女"的出现并非无迹可寻。在国外，研究者将那些不在校读书、不就业或不接受培训的年轻人称为"尼特 族"（not in education，employment or training，即NEET），其最早出现于20世纪90年代的英国。除了"尼特族"外，还有"袋鼠族""赖巢 族"等群体符号指代那些已经成年却仍然跟父母同吃同住需要父母给予一定经济支持的子代。 在日本，这一群体也被称为"儿童房叔叔/阿姨""食草系""蛰居青年"等，被认为是"低欲望社会的代表"。目前，依赖于家庭的青年群体 的规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China, drawing parallels with Japan's historical experience during the 1990s economic downturn [2][3]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2023 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [1]. - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% rate for undergraduate graduates [1]. - The job market is increasingly competitive, with the employment rate for undergraduate graduates being lower than that of vocational school graduates [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons from Japan - Japan experienced a similar "degree devaluation" phenomenon in the 1990s, where a significant economic downturn led to a drastic drop in employment rates for university graduates [10][12]. - The 1990s marked a turning point for Japan, where the employment rate for graduates fell from 80% to below 70%, leading to a generation labeled as "lost" due to their struggles in the job market [10][30]. - The Japanese government attempted various measures to alleviate the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students, but these efforts did not address the underlying issues of economic stagnation and job market demand [21][35]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The article highlights that the root cause of degree devaluation is not merely the oversupply of graduates but the lack of corresponding job opportunities due to economic stagnation and a failure to innovate [35][37]. - Japan's experience illustrates that without significant economic growth and innovation, an increase in educational attainment can lead to a surplus of graduates without adequate job prospects [35][37]. - The article concludes that creating new job opportunities through industrial upgrades and innovation is essential to prevent degree devaluation and ensure that higher education translates into economic productivity [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan, drawing parallels with the current situation in China, particularly in the context of the increasing number of university graduates and the challenges they face in the job market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2024 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is expected to continue until it peaks at 14.45 million in 2038, indicating a persistent job market challenge for graduates [5]. Group 2: Historical Context of Degree Devaluation - The article references Japan's experience with degree devaluation, which began in the 1990s after the economic bubble burst, leading to a significant decline in employment rates for graduates [11][14]. - In 1992, the employment rate for university graduates began to drop, with figures falling from 80% to below 70% over the following years [14][21]. - The phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan was characterized by a surplus of graduates and a shrinking demand for high-skilled labor, resulting in a generation of "high-education refugees" [33][40]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Measures - The Japanese government implemented several measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for postdoctoral researchers, aiming to increase higher education enrollment [30][31]. - Despite these efforts, the number of graduate students increased significantly, but the employment rate continued to decline, highlighting a mismatch between education and job market needs [32]. - The revision of the Labor Dispatch Law in 1999 led to a rise in non-standard employment, which provided short-term solutions but ultimately worsened job security for graduates [36][40]. Group 4: Lessons Learned and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that the root cause of degree devaluation lies in the shrinking demand for skilled labor due to a lack of innovation and industrial upgrades in Japan [48][49]. - The current job market in Japan has shown signs of recovery, with a 98.1% employment rate for new graduates in 2024, attributed to demographic changes and a balance in supply and demand [46][47]. - The experience of Japan serves as a cautionary tale for other countries, including China, regarding the importance of aligning educational outcomes with labor market needs to prevent degree devaluation [53].