Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the U.S. labor market has transitioned from a post-pandemic state of supply-demand imbalance to a more balanced state, with current employment performance showing signs of weakness [1][15][18] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in mid-2025 to 4.4% by the end of 2025, primarily due to an increase in labor supply rather than layoffs [1][18] - Labor force participation rates have rebounded, particularly among youth and immigrants, but the sustainability of this influx is questionable [1][22][27] Group 2 - On the supply side, the increase in unemployment is attributed to a rise in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate stabilizing in the first half of 2025 and then increasing in the second half [18][22] - The demand side faces cooling pressures, with companies absorbing tariff costs and compressing labor costs, leading to a preference for lower-paid workers and increased part-time positions [2][43] - Government funding constraints are limiting personnel expansion, and job mobility among job seekers has decreased, indicating a decline in confidence [2][43][44] Group 3 - The report suggests that if employment continues to weaken and inflation remains manageable, the Federal Reserve may increase the weight of employment risk in its monetary policy decisions, potentially reopening avenues for easing [2][43] - The current market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement less than two rate cuts in 2026 [2][43][31] - The labor market's response to economic conditions is critical, with the potential for a loosening of monetary policy if employment data shows further deterioration [2][43][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that immigration policies have led to fluctuations in labor supply conditions [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee highlights the impact of immigration on labor market dynamics [1]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 鲍威尔在近期政策会议上多次认可这一动态，7月也再次提到："劳动力市场从诸多指标来看仍处于平衡状态"。受 关税引发的信心冲击影响，劳动力需求可能在下降，但供给减少是过去一年失业率维持不变的原因之一。 巴斯基坎提到，职位空缺与失业人数之比已回落至疫情前的1左右，就业-劳动力缺口、求职成功率等指标也处于 疫情前水平，并未显示劳动力市场存在过度松弛的担忧。 这些变化自然让一些固执的分析师开始质疑"联邦基金利率今年剩余时间维持不变"的预测。英国《金融时报》货 币政策雷达（Monetary PolicyRadar）团队认为，这在很大程度上仍取决于从现在到9月17日下次会议期间的情 况。数据方面，在此之前还会发布一份通胀数据、一份非农就业报告，以及官方职位空缺数据。 投资者还将从8月下旬杰克逊霍尔会议的言论中，更清晰地了解美联储的反应机制。因此，尽管支撑"美联储维持 利率"判断的基础正在动摇，但该团队目前仍坚持这一观点。 持相同立场的不止他们。路透社调查的分析师中，约六分之一预计美联储今年会维持利率不变。即便在7月非农数 据公布后，其中一些人仍认为美联储今年剩余时间 ...