| | | 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：底部区间震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | • • | 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检 | | | | 修量大。部分山东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 | | | | 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在11月-12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在45万吨左右的 | | | | 高进口，2月之后的进口待评估。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 | | | • | 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。 | | | | 12月关注恒逸钦州项目的投产，1月关注陕西阳煤的扩产。 | | 需求 | • | 苯酚：开工逐步回升，12月检修3万吨，1月检修1万吨。1月有山东睿霖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with low processing fees, additional maintenance has increased. Although filament sales are weak, there is limited scope for further production cuts in the short - term. Bottle - chip inventories are continuously decreasing at low operation rates. Overall, polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve periodically. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices [3] - For MEG, domestic unit restarts are partially delayed, and overseas unexpected maintenance exists. Port inventories are expected to remain low with limited short - term inventory accumulation pressure. The situation is good, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, showing a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [8] - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn is continuously decreasing, downstream operation may continue to rise. Although the supply of staple fiber may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering that the disk processing fee is still in a low range, attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices [8] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high absolute level but does not show seasonal depletion. The price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8] Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From August 15 to August 21, the price of naphtha in Japan increased from 65.9 to 67.7, PX CFR Taiwan from 573 to 585, PTA internal - market spot from 828 to 852, etc. The PTA spot average daily transaction basis for 2509 increased by 6. There were maintenance of Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton and Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA devices [2] - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA operation rate increased month - on - month, polyester load slightly increased, inventory continued to accumulate, basis remained weak, and spot processing fees were still low. PX domestic operation rate increased slightly, overseas operation rate decreased slightly, PXN strengthened month - on - month, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference increased slightly [3] MEG - **Market Data**: From August 15 to August 21, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 830 on August 21, MEG external - market price increased from 523 to 530, etc. The MEG spot basis for 09 increased by 91. Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton unit restarted [8] - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic units had partial delayed restarts, and overseas had some unexpected maintenance. Port inventories were expected to accumulate with stable shipments. Downstream inventory levels increased month - on - month, the basis remained stable, and oil - based benefits improved significantly [8] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From August 15 to August 21, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased from 6555 to 6610. The spot price was around 6598, and the market basis for 10 was around - 120. The operation rate slightly increased to 91.1% [8] - **Market Situation**: The Ningbo Dafa technical - transformation unit resumed operation, and production and sales remained stable. Inventory remained the same month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn increased, raw - material inventory increased, and finished - product inventory continued to decrease [8] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Data**: From August 15 to August 21, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased from 1800 to 1800 (with fluctuations in between), and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14645 to 14520. The daily change and weekly change of various prices are also provided [8] - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a non - high absolute level but did not show seasonal depletion. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [8] Styrene - **Market Data**: From August 15 to August 21, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 830 on August 21, pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 748, etc. The daily changes of various prices are also provided [11] - **Market Situation**: Not provided