近期，美国原油库存下降，同时市场担心俄罗斯能源供应受限，油价整体震荡反弹，WTI原油期货价格 站上65美元／桶大关，油制聚乙烯再次出现亏损情况。截至9月29日当周，在聚乙烯4种原材料工艺中， 除了煤制工艺仍有利润之外，其他工艺均处于亏损状态，占比最高的油制聚乙烯亏损超过500元／吨， 成本支撑作用有望体现。 目前聚乙烯基本面多空交织，虽然需求端利多并未兑现，但是计划外检修装置增多，供应端压力也明显 缓解，基本抵消需求端利空。展望后市，国庆假期后需求端仍有较大改善空间，成本支撑也逐渐增强， 预计聚乙烯价格继续下行空间不大。另外，化工"反内卷"政策有望落地，届时聚乙烯有望逐渐改变弱势 局面。 三季度，受"反内卷"推动，商品价格整体止跌反弹。不过，聚乙烯表现欠佳，尤其是进入"金九"传统旺 季，需求未有实质性改善，价格不涨反跌，最低一度逼近7000元／吨大关。虽然需求表现不及预期，但 是供应压力也未体现，聚乙烯价格未出现深跌，整体呈现弱势震荡走势。 "金九银十"是聚乙烯传统需求旺季。目前，旺季已过半，但聚乙烯旺季特征并不明显。今年聚乙烯农膜 需求普遍推迟，尤其是国庆节长假临近，下游备货积极性不高，仅维持保障节假日生产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still oscillating between anti - involution and crude oil price fluctuations, with the long - short situation in the industry remaining relatively stalemated. The high production during the peak season of styrene downstream cannot lead to de - stocking in the styrene segment, and the pressure of finished product inventory and external warehouse inventory is increasing. For pure benzene, the four small downstream sectors are reducing their operations and entering a weakening off - season mode. In the short term, the market is mainly in a state of oscillation [3][80]. - It is recommended to close short positions before the National Day. As the absolute price on the futures market drops, the industrial chain valuation gradually declines, and the aromatics valuation returns to a low level. The short - term strategy is to close short positions before the National Day [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Pure Benzene - Domestic production: In September, the maintenance loss was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to about 30,000 - 50,000 tons. In September, the new device production pressure was relatively large, with 56,000 tons realized. New capacities of 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical [3]. - Import: The September import is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports expected in November - December. The external market still has relatively large supply pressure [3]. Styrene - Maintenance: In September, maintenance was concentrated, with 79,000 tons mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical [3]. - New production: The new production of styrene is still being implemented. It is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will be put into operation in November, with an additional average monthly output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from the high level [3]. Demand - Caprolactam: The CPL operation is gradually recovering. The Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. Currently, the overall downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3]. - Phenol: The 200,000 - ton new device of Jilin Petrochemical will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3]. - Aniline: The maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3]. - Styrene downstream 3S hard rubber: During the peak season, there is high production, high inventory, and neutral profit. The core problem is how to solve the problem of high inventory in external warehouses and factory physical inventory [3]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $65 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. Since the crude oil price is expected to weaken, based on the lower limit of $60 per barrel, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton [3][80]. - EB processing fee: With the high inventory of styrene in ports and the high - level inventory of downstream raw materials, the reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3][80]. Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to close short positions before the National Day in the short term. The short - term strategy is mainly oscillation, and it is bearish in the medium term [3][80]. - Inter - period: For styrene, a reverse spread strategy is recommended. Currently, there is no relevant strategy for pure benzene [3][80]. - Inter - variety: Compress BZN [3].