BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期EB高位震荡 | | • | 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃物流在 | | | | 春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 | | | • | 己内酰胺：CPL负 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,351 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,385 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to the unexpected load reduction of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the shutdown of several plants in Saudi Arabia due to power issues, and the postponed restart of Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant, the supply improvement at home and abroad was lower than expected, leading to a rebound in EG prices [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$56/ton (down $2/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 38 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons (down 27,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 481,000 tons (down 61,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 45,000 tons, but the planned arrival at the secondary ports is concentrated at 65,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the peak maintenance period in China has passed, and domestic ethylene glycol production is on the rise. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. However, in July, the actual supply recovery at home and abroad was lower than expected due to the load reduction of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the slow restart in Saudi Arabia. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, with high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure increases in late July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,351 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,385 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$56/ton (down $2/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 38 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data or analysis on international spread is provided in the current content, only the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is mentioned [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis on downstream production, sales, and operating rate is provided in the current content, only relevant figures such as "Figure 10: Filament production and sales", "Figure 11: Staple fiber production and sales" are mentioned [20] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons (down 27,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 481,000 tons (down 61,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 45,000 tons, but the planned arrival at the secondary ports is concentrated at 65,000 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]