就在全球央行都在疯狂买黄金的时候，一个重量级玩家却突然反手抛售。 俄罗斯中央银行在2025年11月下旬开始出售国家储备中的实物黄金。 作为全球黄金储备排名第五的国家，这一动作立刻引发了市场关注。 推动金价上涨的重要力量突然出现转向，让不少投资者心里打鼓：这轮黄金牛市真的要结束了吗？ 俄罗斯央行抛售黄金的直接原因是为了弥补国家预算缺口。 自2022年乌克兰危机升级后，欧盟和七国集团冻结了俄罗斯接近一半的外汇储备，总额约3000亿欧元。 其中大约2000亿欧元存放在欧洲清算银行等机构的账户中，俄罗斯政府无法动用这些资金。 油气出口收入一直是俄罗斯财政的支柱。 但在西方实施能源限价等制裁措施后，今年上半年俄罗斯油气收入同比下降了16.9%。 财政赤字迅速扩大至3.69万亿卢布，这个数字已经逼近全年规划的上限。 面对外汇储备被冻结和财政收入下滑的双重压力，俄罗斯央行不得不采取行动。 俄罗斯是全球第二大黄金生产国，每年开采量超过300吨。 然而自2022年以来，俄罗斯金条被禁止进入西方市场，英国伦敦金银市场协会也不再接受俄罗斯黄金。 这些制裁措施导致俄罗斯黄金出口渠道严重受阻。 为应对这一局面，俄罗斯政府取消了零售黄金 ...

华尔街日报啥的报道里，总爱强调中国握着大笔美债，但真要甩卖的话，搞不好自己先栽跟头，还可能把全球金融搅得一团糟简单说，这事儿不是闹着玩 的，中国持有美债规模大，但抛售起来代价高，基本等于搬石头砸自己脚。 数据显示，中国美债持有量最近几年在减，但速度不快，到2025年3月，已经降到7650亿美元，退到第三大持有国了，日本和英国排在前头。媒体分析，这 不是中国不想动，而是动了会引发连锁反应，美元贬值、外储缩水啥的，全是麻烦事儿。 中国买美债这事儿，得从贸易顺差说起。美国买中国货多，中国赚的美元得找地方放，美债就是个稳当的选择，流动性好，规模大。2020年高峰时，中国持 美债超1.2万亿，后来慢慢减持，到2025年上半年，持仓在7600亿到8000亿之间晃荡。 财政部数据3月是7650亿，4月后有小幅波动，但整体趋势是减。为什么减？中美贸易战升级，美国加关税，中国自然得调整资产配置，避免风险集中。特朗 普第一任时，彼得·纳瓦罗这家伙就推对华强硬政策，他是贸易顾问，主张用关税压中国制造业，那时候中国就开始多元化储备了。 中美经济这两年闹得挺凶，尤其是特朗普上台后第二任，关税战又升级了，美国媒体那边老爱拿中国手里的美债 ...

11月18日下午，伦敦现货黄金一度跌破4000美元/盎司，日内跌幅一度超1%，为11月10日以来首次。这已是现货黄金连续第四个交易日下跌。COMEX黄金 同样一度跌破4000美元/盎司，最大跌幅近1.9%。 现货黄金价格盘中一度跌破4000美元后深V反弹。 截至发稿，黄金期现货价格均有所反弹，伦敦现货黄金报4044.87美元/盎司，跌0.01%；COMEX黄金跌0.8%，报4042.1美元/盎司。 瑞士百达财富管理高级外汇策略师Michael Hart认为，黄金于上月出现回调，随后几日累计跌幅达到10%。本轮下跌表明黄金已处于超买状态。然而，许多 资产管理人在投资组合中依然仅持有极少黄金甚至未配置黄金。就此而言，这些投资者对黄金仍存在"配置不足"的情况。在各国央行持续推进外汇储备多元 化、美联储开启宽松周期以及美国整体财政状况恶化的背景下，黄金的中期前景依然稳固。 王彦青认为，黄金在4000美元/盎司附近存在较强支撑，一方面是全球央行购金的中长期托底，另一方面即将发布的9月非农数据仍有不确定性，若失业率上 升或薪资增速放缓，可能重启降息预期，短期可关注4000美元支撑位的有效性。 消息面上，美联储内部关于降息 ...

此外，各国纷纷增持人民币，也意在降低外汇储备中美元资产的占比。长期以来，许多国家的外汇储备 中美元资产占据较大比例。然而，自2020年以来，为了应对国内经济危机，美联储大量投放美元，导致 首先，人民币的国际影响力与日俱增。曾经，国际贸易结算主要依赖美元。如今，人民币已经逐渐被一 些国家接受为结算货币，例如，俄罗斯和伊朗在与中国的石油交易中便采用人民币结算。同时，在越 南、缅甸等东南亚国家，人民币也已可以直接用于交易结算。 随着人民币国际地位的日益提升，越来越多的国家开始将其纳入外汇储备。目前，已有超过七十个国家 选择将人民币纳入其外汇储备体系，而中国也已与包括英国、日本在内的三十九个国家签署了货币互换 协议。这不禁让国人憧憬，未来出国旅行或进行国际贸易时，可以直接使用人民币，省去兑换外币的繁 琐。 究其原因，主要有以下几点： 其次，中国经济的稳健发展为人民币提供了坚实后盾。作为全球第二大经济体，中国经济展现出强劲的 增长势头。尤其是在2020年以来，全球经济受到疫情的冲击普遍衰退，而中国经济却保持了持续增长的 韧性。同时，人民币汇率的相对稳定也让各国持有人民币资产更加安心。 美元资产大幅贬值，使得许多国家的外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in gold tax policy in China have led to significant price discrepancies in the gold market, affecting both retail prices and recovery rates, with a notable increase in costs for consumers [1][7]. Market Phenomenon - The price of gold jewelry has surged to 1268 yuan per gram, while bank investment gold bars hover around 930 yuan per gram, indicating a clear distinction based on purchase intent: consumption versus investment [3]. - Consumers are exhibiting caution in their purchasing decisions, with some opting to delay purchases until after the release of CPI data, reflecting concerns over potential price corrections [3]. - The gold recovery market is active but characterized by significant price gaps, with recovery prices from major brands being substantially lower than retail prices, leading to potential losses for consumers [3]. Data Insights - As of November 8, 2025, international gold prices have stabilized above 4000 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.33% [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 917.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a minor increase, while the price fluctuations indicate a growing divergence between bullish and bearish market sentiments [5]. Policy Impact - The new tax regulations effective from November 1 have increased the tax burden on gold used for investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail prices in various markets [7]. - The policy has caused temporary confusion in market pricing, prompting industry associations to issue guidelines for compliance [7]. Institutional Movements - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with China's central bank holding a record 2304 tons of gold as of October, indicating a strategic shift towards gold accumulation [10]. - Emerging market central banks are becoming the primary drivers of gold demand, reflecting a broader trend towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [10]. International Factors - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing short-term gold price fluctuations, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut [12][13]. - Geopolitical risks have shown a cooling effect on gold prices, as recent developments have reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [13]. Investment Strategies - Current technical analysis suggests that gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key resistance and support levels identified [15]. - The growing popularity of gold ETFs among younger investors highlights a shift towards more flexible investment options that do not require physical storage [15]. - Significant price differences between various purchasing channels indicate that consumers need to be aware of the cost implications when investing in gold [15]. Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a tension between long-term support from central bank purchases and short-term pressures from changing monetary policies and geopolitical stability [17]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could test higher levels in the future, but caution that the market has not yet reached critical thresholds that typically signal a market downturn [17].

中国手里握着的美国国债，这些年减持的动作越来越明显，从高峰期到现在，规模缩水了不少。回想一下，2013年那会儿，中国持有美债的总量达到了 1.3167万亿美元，那时候是顶峰，感觉像手里攥着个大宝贝，能稳住汇率，还能赚点利息。 可从那以后，情况就变了，各种因素搅和进来，让中国外汇管理局开始逐步卖出这些债券。不是一下子全甩掉，而是慢慢来，一步步调整。 为什么呢？说白了，美国那边美联储加息，利率上蹿，美债价格就往下掉，拿着不划算，还得面对美元汇率的晃荡。加上全球贸易摩擦一波接一波，中国得 想想怎么分散风险，别把鸡蛋全搁一个篮子里。 2018年就开始有动静了。那年美国启动加息周期，美债收益率蹭蹭上涨，中国卖掉了约500亿美元，持仓降到1.1万亿美元左右。操作上挺谨慎的，分批卖长 期债券，盯着市场流动性好的时候动手，避免闹出大乱子。 2019年贸易争端升级，美国加关税，全球供应链乱套，中国减持力度加大，卖了超过1000亿美元，持仓滑到1.06万亿美元。下半年卖得最多，每个月平均 150亿美元左右，主要瞄准10年期和30年期的国债，转手买些短期证券，图个灵活。 2020年疫情来了，美国搞大水漫灌，财政赤字爆棚，美债供给多 ...

Group 1: Trade and Export - In the first ten months of the year, China's total goods trade value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] - In October, exports decreased by 0.8% in RMB terms and 1.1% in USD terms, marking the first negative growth since February this year, slightly below market expectations [1] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 25.2%, which pulled down the overall export growth by 3.8 percentage points [1] - Despite the decline, new export drivers such as "new three samples" products and green products like railway electric locomotives and wind power generators maintained double-digit growth [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Debt Management - The People's Bank of China resumed government bond trading in October, injecting 20 billion yuan into the banking system, marking the end of a suspension since January [2][3] - The scale of bond purchases in October was relatively low compared to previous months, indicating a cautious approach by the central bank to avoid rapid declines in interest rates [3] - The establishment of a Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the management and monitoring of government debt, aligning with high-quality development goals [6] Group 3: Economic Events and Trends - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) opened with over 4,000 participating companies, including 290 Fortune 500 firms, showcasing a strong international interest in the Chinese market [4][5] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching approximately 2,304.457 tons, reflecting a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves amid global uncertainties [8][9] - The ongoing US government shutdown has reached a record 36 days, with potential economic losses estimated at $11 billion if it continues, impacting key economic data releases [10][11]

全球央行购金热情同步高涨。世界黄金协会发布的2025年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，今年 国际金价已50次突破新高。尽管金价处于创纪录高位，三季度全球央行依然加快了购金步伐，净购金量 总计220吨，较二季度增长28%，较上年同比增长10%。整体上看，前三季度全球央行净购金总量达634 吨，虽低于过去三年的异常高位数值，但仍显著高于2022年之前的平均水平。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street评论道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、通胀压力居高不下以及全 球贸易政策的不确定性，均推升了投资者在寻求增强投资组合抗风险能力的过程中对避险资产的需求。 黄金市场前景依然乐观，因为美元的持续走弱、普遍的降息预期以及滞胀风险的存在，均可能进一步支 撑黄金投资需求。今年以来，金价不断刷新纪录，而当前的市场环境显示黄金仍有进一步上行的空间。 市场尚未饱和，配置黄金的战略价值依然稳固。 10月黄金价格一度触及4294美元/盎司的历史高点，创下年内第50次新高。此后虽回调至月末的4000美 元/盎司附近，但全月累计上涨4.9%，为连续第五个月收涨。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，在外部环境不确定性增加背景下，中国 ...

11月7日，央行最新数据显示，截至10月末，中国黄金储备达7409万盎司（约2304.457吨），环比增加3 万盎司（约0.93吨），实现连续第12个月增持。此次增持规模虽略低于近几个月环比增量水平，但延续 了央行持续配置黄金的战略节奏。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟分析称，中国央行采用"低量多次"的小幅补仓节奏，既有利 于平滑市场波动、把握成本窗口、降低大规模购入对金价的冲击，又能提前对冲全球宏观风险，为市场 预期提供"稳定器"功效，同时折射出人民币国际化与外汇储备多元化的战略考量。 全球央行购金热情同步高涨。世界黄金协会发布的2025年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，今年 国际金价已50次突破新高。尽管金价处于创纪录高位，三季度全球央行依然加快了购金步伐，净购金量 总计220吨，较二季度增长28%，较上年同比增长10%。整体上看，前三季度全球央行净购金总量达634 吨，虽低于过去三年的异常高位数值，但仍显著高于2022年之前的平均水平。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street评论道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、通胀压力居高不下以及全 球贸易政策的不确定性，均推升了投资者在寻求增强投资 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is accelerating the repatriation of gold, with 576 tons stored domestically by the end of September, driven by geopolitical concerns over the safety of overseas assets [2][5][6] - The RBI's strategy reflects a significant shift, with over 65% of its gold reserves now held domestically, nearly doubling from four years ago [2][5] - The move is largely attributed to the freezing of Russian assets by Western nations following the Ukraine conflict, raising global concerns about the safety of foreign-held assets [6] Group 1: Gold Reserves and Storage - As of now, the RBI's total gold reserves amount to 880 tons, with 576 tons stored locally, marking a historical high [5] - In September 2022, only about 38% of India's gold reserves were stored domestically, indicating a substantial increase in local storage [5] - The RBI previously entrusted some of its gold reserves to the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements for safekeeping [5] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The RBI's gold repatriation is seen as a move to enhance direct control over national gold assets and avoid the risk of asset freezes similar to those experienced by Russia [6] - India's Finance Minister emphasized that this initiative is a "thoughtful move" to diversify foreign exchange reserves [6] - The RBI aims to increase the proportion of gold in its reserves from 13.92% as of September 2025 to 20% in the future, indicating a continued trend of gold accumulation [7] Group 3: Global Context - The global central bank gold purchases reached 415 tons in the first half of 2025, maintaining a historical high, with emerging market countries like China, Russia, and Turkey also increasing their gold reserves [7] - 95% of surveyed central banks expect continued growth in official gold reserves over the next 12 months, reflecting a renewed strategic importance of gold amid rising geopolitical risks [7][8] - India's foreign exchange reserves totaled $702.3 billion as of October 17, 2025, ranking fourth globally and providing a solid foundation for its reserve diversification strategy [7]