2025 年 8 月 26 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 李宁 (2331 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$23.30) 目标价: HK$23.30 当前股价: HK$20.28 股价上行/下行空间 +15% 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) 21.00/12.56 市值 (US$mn) 6,709 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,585 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 52 流通盘占比 (%) 100 主要股东 (%) Viva China 11 按 2025 年 8 月 25 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet | 主要调整 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | 评级 | 买入 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 23.30 | 19.30 | 21% | | 2025E EPS (RMB) | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0% | | 2026E EPS (RMB) | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0% | | 2027E EPS (RMB) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company is expected to experience a revenue growth of 2% and a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders of 16% in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating and has raised the target price by 5% to HKD 19.30, corresponding to an 18 times P/E ratio for 2026 [1][2] - The company's revenue for 1H25 is projected to reach approximately 14.63 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 0.5 percentage points to 49.9% [1][2] Group 2 - The company has expanded its product width significantly in the previous year, but the risk-reward ratio may decrease this year due to higher bases and increased inventory management challenges [2] - The company plans to enhance its outdoor product lines, particularly in light outdoor categories, with an expected introduction of around 5,000 stores by the end of the year [2] - The forecast for 2025-2027 revenue remains unchanged, with expected revenues of 28.69 billion, 29.25 billion, and 29.79 billion yuan respectively, while net profit estimates have been reduced by 6% to 7% for the same period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous target price [3][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates a 2% year-on-year revenue growth and a 16% decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with expected revenue of RMB 14.63 billion [1][6]. - The performance of Li Ning's running shoe matrix is strong, but the basketball category remains under pressure, leading to a forecasted retail discount increase in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The report suggests that the company will continue to expand its product range, particularly in outdoor products, with a goal of introducing approximately 5,000 stores by the end of the year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are maintained at RMB 28.686 billion, RMB 29.249 billion, and RMB 29.787 billion respectively, with a slight decrease in net profit estimates for the same period [3][4]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is revised down to RMB 2.403 billion, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [3][4]. - The report highlights a projected gross margin decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 48.8% for 2025 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns an 18x P/E ratio for 2026, leading to a target price of HK$19.30, which indicates a 19% upside potential from the current stock price of HK$16.28 [3][6]. - Historical P/E ratios for Li Ning have fluctuated between 10-15x over the past two years, suggesting a continuation of the range trading logic unless there is a fundamental change [2][3].