Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B continues to rise, indicating improved economic conditions in real estate and investment sectors[1] - Index B standardized increased by 0.3, outperforming historical averages, suggesting accelerating domestic economic growth momentum[1] - For the week of July 25, 2025, Index A is at 0.29, Index B at 98.5, and Index C at -4.6% (+0.4 pct) indicating a mixed performance across sectors[11] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have decreased, with July CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and overall CPI also expected to increase by 0.5%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential increase in the ten-year government bond yield and a decrease in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 2, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 2, 2025, is 2.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,193.21[18]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Consumption sector performance improved, while investment sector showed a decline, and real estate sector remained stable[1] Price Tracking - Food prices increased by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.5%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by around 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI remaining flat at 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain around zero month-on-month, with a year-on-year PPI expected to recover to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1][17] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 25, 2025, is 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,151.19[18]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in investment sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%, while retail sales total monthly year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to fall by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 11, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 4, 2025, is 2.19%, compared to the actual yield of 1.64%[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows seasonal decline, indicating stable domestic economic growth momentum[11] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages, suggesting steady economic performance[12] - Investment sector sentiment has declined, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly decreased by approximately -0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about -0.1%[2] - The June PPI is expected to decline by -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 4, 2025[11] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 27, 2025, is 2.20%, compared to the actual yield of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month stands at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show a decline in activity, while consumer sector performance remains stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of approximately -0.4%[2] - The PPI is projected to decline by about -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic momentum[1] - Index B standardized shows a decrease of 0.43, significantly weaker than the historical average increase of 0.17 per week after the Spring Festival[1] - Investment and consumption sectors show a decline in prosperity, while the real estate sector remains stable[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices both decreased this week, with April CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and non-food prices by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI expected to rise to zero[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -2.8%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 25, 2025, is 2.60%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to decrease to 3,141.29 from the current average of 3,272.71[19]