Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating stable economic growth momentum[1] - Consumer sector performance improved, while real estate remained stable and investment showed a decline[1] - Index B standardized decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices increased, with July CPI expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 18, 2025, is 2.24%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month is recorded at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating an improvement in economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Real estate sector sentiment improved, while investment sentiment declined, and consumption sentiment remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 20, 2025, is 2.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,098.20[20] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 4.00%[3] - Retail sales total for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 5.10%[3] - Exports for the month have a year-on-year growth of 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show a decline in activity, while consumer sector performance remains stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of approximately -0.4%[2] - The PPI is projected to decline by about -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]