证券研究报告 | 2025年08月24日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标连续两周超季节性上升 主要结论：高频指标继续超季节性上升。 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：田地 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-22940456 | 0755-81982035 | | | lizn@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980516060001 | S0980524090003 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | | 1.60 | | 社零总额当月同比 | | 3.70 | | 出口当月同比 | | 7.20 | | M2 | | 8.80 | | 市场走势 | | | 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 经济增长方面，本周(8 月 22 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续上升。从分项来看，本周消费领域景气有所回升，投资、房地产 领域景气基本保持不变，本周消费领域表现相对较优。从季节性比较来看， 本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.3，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长 ...

Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - Index B showed a seasonal rebound, with a standardized increase of 0.43, outperforming historical averages[1] - Consumption and real estate sectors showed relative strength, while investment sector sentiment declined[1] Price Trends - Food prices increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline to -0.3%[2] - PPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 22, 2025, is 2.48%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,207.64[20]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows a seasonal decline of 0.43, indicating a slowdown in domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has improved, while consumption and real estate sectors have seen a decline in sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales year-on-year growth is at 4.80%, and exports year-on-year growth is at 7.20%[3] Price Trends - Food prices have increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices have decreased by about -0.1%, leading to an overall CPI increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year CPI drop to -0.3%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 15, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 15, 2025, is 2.42%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,196.51[20]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative this week, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating a stable economic growth momentum[1] - Real estate sector performance improved, while investment and consumption sectors showed a decline, with the real estate sector performing relatively better[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, remaining close to historical average levels, suggesting steady domestic economic growth[1] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential downward adjustment in the index next week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 8, 2025, is expected to rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to decline[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield is 2.34%, compared to the actual value of 1.72%, indicating a significant deviation[19] Price Tracking - Food prices increased by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in July, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.5%, leading to an overall CPI increase of around 0.5%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.1% in July, with a year-on-year recovery to -3.3%[2]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B continues to rise, indicating improved economic conditions in real estate and investment sectors[1] - Index B standardized increased by 0.3, outperforming historical averages, suggesting accelerating domestic economic growth momentum[1] - For the week of July 25, 2025, Index A is at 0.29, Index B at 98.5, and Index C at -4.6% (+0.4 pct) indicating a mixed performance across sectors[11] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have decreased, with July CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and overall CPI also expected to increase by 0.5%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential increase in the ten-year government bond yield and a decrease in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 2, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 2, 2025, is 2.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,193.21[18]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Consumption sector performance improved, while investment sector showed a decline, and real estate sector remained stable[1] Price Tracking - Food prices increased by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.5%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by around 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI remaining flat at 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain around zero month-on-month, with a year-on-year PPI expected to recover to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1][17] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 25, 2025, is 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,151.19[18]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating stable economic growth momentum[1] - Consumer sector performance improved, while real estate remained stable and investment showed a decline[1] - Index B standardized decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices increased, with July CPI expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 18, 2025, is 2.24%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month is recorded at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in investment sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%, while retail sales total monthly year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to fall by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 11, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 4, 2025, is 2.19%, compared to the actual yield of 1.64%[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows seasonal decline, indicating stable domestic economic growth momentum[11] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages, suggesting steady economic performance[12] - Investment sector sentiment has declined, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly decreased by approximately -0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about -0.1%[2] - The June PPI is expected to decline by -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 4, 2025[11] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 27, 2025, is 2.20%, compared to the actual yield of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month stands at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show signs of decline, while consumer sector stability is maintained[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The PPI is projected to decrease by approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]