美国财政部长贝森特国会听证会表态，再度将美联储货币政策独立性推至舆论焦点。他称"总统有权对美 联储决策施加影响"，与此前立场相悖，叠加行政分支对美联储的持续施压，市场开始关注美国金融体系 核心机制的稳定性。 美联储独立性当前面临多重考验，司法调查、官员任免争议、政策立场分歧相互交织。作为全球重要央 行，美联储决策稳定性既影响美国国内经济运行，也会传导至全球市场。未来最高法院裁决结果、行政与 央行的博弈走向，将持续影响市场预期及金融市场稳定。 美联储独立性源自1913年《联邦储备法》，是美国金融体系的基石。制度设计初衷是隔离货币政策与直接 民选官员控制，保障决策贴合经济基本面与公共利益。贝森特虽补充称美联储应保持独立性，且这种独立 性依赖公众信任，但对总统干预权的认可、对美联储官员罢免问题的模糊回应，加重了外界担忧。 经济学家警示，美联储独立性受损会削弱市场对美国经济及金融体系的信心。此外，贝森特听证会上提及 的强美元立场，与行政分支偏好弱美元的表态不符。叠加去年美元指数累计下跌超9%的走势，政策协调问 题已成为市场关注重点。 过去一年，行政分支多次向美联储施压，包括要求下调基准利率、试图解除美联储理事职务，司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, emphasized the President's right to express opinions on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Becerra stated that while the President and Congress members have the right to express their views on the Fed's policies, the Fed should maintain its monetary policy independence, which is built on public trust and accountability [1]. - Becerra previously highlighted the importance of the Fed's independence, suggesting that the President should not intervene arbitrarily, yet he criticized the Fed for not adequately protecting the interests of the public regarding inflation [2]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Accountability - The past year saw President Trump exerting pressure on the Fed to lower the benchmark interest rate and attempting to remove Fed Governor Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, which Cook denied [1]. - The Department of Justice is investigating Fed Chair Powell's testimony regarding the costs of the Fed's headquarters renovation, with Powell indicating that the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed's refusal to yield to political pressure [1]. Group 3: Renovation Costs and Public Trust - Powell defended the $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, stating that the nearly century-old building requires expensive structural repairs and is under independent oversight [2]. - Becerra mentioned that the Fed's handling of inflation has significantly impacted American wage earners, which has affected public trust in the institution [2]. Group 4: Currency Policy - Becerra affirmed support for a strong dollar policy, contrasting with Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, which typically enhances U.S. export competitiveness [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, stated that the President has the right to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [1][2] - Becerra emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, which is based on public trust, and mentioned that it should be held accountable [1][2] - Economic experts warned that any erosion of the Fed's independence could undermine market confidence in the U.S. economy and financial system [2] Group 2 - Becerra acknowledged differing opinions within the Trump administration regarding the applicability of the "unitary executive theory" to the Federal Reserve, which suggests that presidential powers should be exclusive [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system since the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 [2] - Becerra's recent comments contrasted with his previous stance that the President would not interfere with the Fed's independence, as he criticized the Fed for its handling of inflation and mentioned cost overruns in the Fed's headquarters renovation project [2] Group 3 - Becerra discussed the dollar's performance, noting that the dollar index fell by over 9% last year, while asserting support for a strong dollar policy [3] - This position on a strong dollar conflicts with President Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, which is typically seen as beneficial for U.S. export competitiveness [3]

在特朗普近一年的持续攻击下，美联储正承受重压。这位美国总统的辱骂、解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的威胁、试图解雇美联储理事库克的持续行动，以及为减 轻政府债务成本而明确要求降息——除此之外，财政部长贝森特还指控美联储自金融危机以来越权行事。 在此背景下，彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）上周举办的央行独立性主题会议，时机再好不过。这场会议值得称 道：既没有过度恐慌，也没有不切实际地为美联储的所有举措辩护。 所有参会者一致认为，独立性本身不应是目标；货币政策制定免受政治干预的权利，只有靠"结果"才能证明其合理性。对央行官员而言，这已是最令人安心 的共识。 经济学家分歧加剧 美联储曾放任美国银行"大到不能倒"、涉足气候政策，还监管出10%的通胀率——正因如此，不少经济学家支持贝森特的观点：美联储过去的糟糕决策凸显 其独立性过强，应当加以约束。例如，胡佛研究所的约翰·科克伦（John Cochrane）认为，美联储若要独立于政府运作，必须承担更有限的使命，且问责机 制需大幅强化。 他的观点引发了哈佛大学教授、前财政部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry ...