Core Insights - The dollar is facing an unprecedented trust crisis, with an 11% drop in the ICE dollar index in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance since the Nixon era [1] - The decline in the dollar is not merely a technical correction but a potential trend reversal, influenced by collective actions in the foreign exchange market and political intentions [8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Foreign investors are increasingly hedging against dollar risk, indicating a collective anxiety towards U.S. assets, breaking the previous trend where capital would abandon hedging strategies during simultaneous gains in the dollar and U.S. stocks [3] - The expectation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is looming, with market confidence in a rate cut by September, despite ongoing moderate inflation [3] - The current situation reflects a self-reinforcing cycle where the more dollar positions are sold off, the more the dollar's decline is exacerbated [3] Group 2: Political Implications - The Trump administration's suspicion of currency manipulation adds a political dimension to the dollar crisis, with reports suggesting that the White House views exchange rates as a core tool of trade policy [5] - The collaboration between the government and major U.S. corporations, where a weak dollar policy is tacitly accepted, is pushing the dollar towards a dangerous path of competitive devaluation [5] Group 3: Historical Context - The current dollar situation is reminiscent of the 1973 decoupling of the dollar from gold, suggesting that the world may take years to adapt to a floating exchange rate system again [5] - The potential collapse of the dollar's dominance could lead to a chaotic currency landscape, unlike the past when there were clear alternatives following the Bretton Woods collapse [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The perfect storm for dollar depreciation is characterized by the transition from individual hedging actions to collective behavior, combined with political and market forces [8] - The erosion of global faith in the dollar could have more significant implications than trade surpluses, as the U.S. risks losing its status as the world's primary reserve currency [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar, highlighting that it has experienced its worst first half since the early 1970s, with a nearly 11% drop in the ICE dollar index in the first six months of 2025, raising concerns about a potential long-term depreciation cycle for the dollar [2][5]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Dollar Weakness - **Increased Foreign Exchange Hedging Demand**: Following the 2008 financial crisis, foreign investors had minimal need to hedge currency risks due to the strong performance of the US stock market. However, recent strong performances in international markets and uncertainties surrounding trade policies have led to a rise in hedging demand, contributing to the dollar's decline [8][9]. - **Anticipation of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by market tools, adds downward pressure on the dollar. Many analysts believe that the Fed has more room to cut rates compared to other major central banks, which could further weaken the dollar [10][12]. - **De Facto Weak Dollar Policy**: The current US administration's policies appear to align with a "de facto weak dollar policy," which may enhance the competitiveness of US exports. This could benefit large US companies with significant overseas revenues, as a weaker dollar may lead to increased profitability [13].

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst start to a year since the early 1970s, with the dollar index plummeting nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest decline for the first half of the year since records began in 1973 [2] - Analysts are increasingly pessimistic about the dollar's future, with few expecting it to strengthen in the coming year, and some suggesting this could signal the beginning of a long-term depreciation [2] - The overall trend for the dollar is downward, according to Brad Bechtel, Global Head of Foreign Exchange at Jefferies Group, who cites three main reasons for the worsening decline [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of international stock markets, combined with uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies, has led foreign investors to reassess their risks, prompting them to hedge against dollar risks [3] - Despite concerns about a potential "buyer strike" in US Treasury bonds, data indicates that foreign capital has not yet significantly withdrawn from the US market [3] - Current capital flow data does not show any abnormalities, according to Will Compernolle, a macroeconomic strategist at FHN Financial [3] Group 3 - The market is now anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders betting that a cut could occur as early as September, supported by recent employment data indicating a slowdown in the labor market [4][3] - A rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to further pressure the dollar [4] Group 4 - The Trump administration is perceived to be pursuing a "de facto weak dollar policy," which is seen as a non-tariff trade barrier, particularly by officials from Japan and South Korea [5] - A weaker dollar could enhance the competitiveness of US exports in the global market, aligning with Trump's focus on revitalizing American manufacturing [5] - A weaker dollar may also boost the earnings of large US companies, especially those with significant overseas revenue, as noted by a Morgan Stanley strategist team [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar, highlighting its lowest performance since March 2022, and explores potential policy measures to address the overvaluation of the dollar while considering the implications for US assets and debt pressure [1]. Group 1: Currency Policy and Risks - The demand for reserve assets leads to a deviation from normal trade balance, primarily due to an overvalued exchange rate, which can be corrected through tariffs or addressing undervalued currencies of other countries [2]. - The pursuit of a fair value for the dollar may reduce its attractiveness to foreign investors, potentially leading to a significant decline in the value of US Treasury securities [2]. - A 15% decline in the value of US Treasury bonds could negate over one-third of expected interest payments, raising concerns about capital outflows amid existing fiscal deficits and inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Multilateral Currency Policy Agreements - Historical multilateral currency agreements, such as the Plaza Accord and Louvre Accord, have been effective in adjusting the value of the dollar, but current economic conditions differ significantly from those in the 1980s [5][7]. - The US government aims to use tariffs as leverage to negotiate currency agreements with trading partners like Europe and China, but these countries are unlikely to agree to currency adjustments due to their own economic challenges [7][9]. - The current distribution of reserve assets is concentrated in Middle Eastern and East Asian countries, complicating the implementation of multilateral agreements compared to the past [9]. Group 3: Unilateral Currency Policy Approaches - The article suggests that the Trump administration could explore unilateral measures to address the overvaluation of the dollar without relying solely on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [11]. - The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could be utilized to impose fees on foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities, making reserve accumulation less attractive [12]. - Gradual implementation of such policies is recommended to mitigate potential adverse effects on the dollar and financial markets [12][14]. Group 4: Accumulation of Foreign Currency Reserves - The US could mimic some trading partners by accumulating foreign currency reserves through purchasing dollars and selling them for other currencies, thereby increasing demand for those currencies [16]. - Utilizing the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) are potential methods for accumulating foreign reserves, though they come with risks and require careful management [17][18]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to effectively implement these strategies while maintaining the Fed's credibility in managing inflation [18][20].

Core Insights - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with Shanghai gold and silver prices rising by 0.88% and 0.61% respectively, while international precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold and silver dropping by 0.90% and 0.98% respectively [1][2] Price Movements - As of May 16, 2025, the main contracts for precious metals showed the following prices: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 747.80 CNY/gram, peaked at 759.20 CNY/gram, and hit a low of 746.44 CNY/gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 8054.00 CNY/kg, peaked at 8165.00 CNY/kg, and hit a low of 8052.00 CNY/kg [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3243.50 USD/ounce, peaked at 3255.80 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 3209.20 USD/ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 32.80 USD/ounce, peaked at 32.87 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 32.45 USD/ounce [2] Market Sentiment - Tanglewood Total Wealth Management's macro investment strategist indicated that the Trump administration appears to be leaning towards weakening the dollar to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, which could potentially benefit gold prices [3] - The dollar weakened during trading, with reports suggesting discussions between the U.S. and South Korea regarding monetary policy, hinting at a potential softening of the dollar [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to reassure market participants that the U.S. is not seeking a weaker dollar, while trade representatives are not planning to include currency commitments in future trade agreements [3] Market Analysis - On May 15, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.74% to 3243.90 USD/ounce, with the latest CME "FedWatch" data indicating a 91.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, and an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probabilities for maintaining rates in July stand at 63.2%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 34.2% and a 50 basis point cut at 2.6% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Incrementum AG's annual report indicates that despite the surge in gold prices to a record $3,500 per ounce, the long-term bull market for gold is still in its early stages, with expectations of higher price increases in the latter half of this decade [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - The research team led by Ronald-Peter Stferle and Mark Valek forecasts that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce by 2030, with a potential "bull market scenario" pushing prices up to $8,900 due to rising inflation threats [1] - Since the initial prediction in 2020, gold prices have increased by 92%, yet its allocation in overall investment portfolios remains around 1% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the current phase of the bull market is characterized by increasing media optimism, which could lead to a "mania phase" [1] - Although gold prices have performed well this year, they remain moderate compared to historical bull markets, with 22 new highs recorded as of April 30, compared to 43 last year [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - Incrementum anticipates that investment demand will become a new driving force for gold prices, as investors seek to hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, despite current inflows into gold ETFs lagging behind stocks and bonds [1] - Central bank demand is highlighted as a significant support for gold prices, but the report suggests that the influx of Western financial investors is still awaited [1] Group 4: Economic Context - The report critiques the U.S. government's tightening policies, suggesting they may push the economy towards recession, which could ultimately benefit gold as the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in response to economic slowdowns [1] - Analysts warn that a weak dollar policy could undermine currency credibility and deter essential capital inflows, potentially leading to inflation and reduced purchasing power [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic and policy environment in the U.S. and that of 1984, suggesting that commodity prices may follow a similar trajectory due to shared characteristics in economic conditions, government pressures, exchange rates, and policy measures [1][5][20]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Industrial metals exhibit high price elasticity and are sensitive to economic and policy changes, with the CRB spot index serving as a representative for commodity prices [2]. - The price movements of CRB metals from the 1970s show similarities to recent trends, indicating a potential long-term upward price center, although current conditions are more comparable to 1984 [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that price increases typically last 20-30 months, while declines are more rapid, lasting 12-18 months [3]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Similarities - Current economic conditions mirror those of the early 1980s, characterized by recession, fiscal expansion, and high inflation, leading to a cycle of declining interest rates and inflation [5][11]. - The U.S. faces similar pressures as in the 1980s, including high trade deficits and increasing fiscal deficits [6][12]. - The exchange rate environment is akin to that of the early 1980s, with a strong dollar exacerbating trade deficits, prompting government efforts to weaken the dollar [6][16]. - Policy measures from the current administration reflect those of the Reagan era, including tax cuts, promoting oil production, and reducing government spending to address fiscal deficits [20]. Group 3: Future Commodity Outlook - Based on historical trends from 1984 to 1986, a downward trend in commodity prices is anticipated, influenced by the Plaza Accord and the resulting currency dynamics [21][23]. - The initial pricing of commodities may reflect a contraction in global trade, with future expectations potentially correcting if certain countries are less affected by tariffs [23]. - The unclear economic outlook in the U.S. will depend on the duration of government policies, with potential short-term price spikes driven by policy stimuli, but long-term price levels will be determined by demand fundamentals [23].

要点 2016年美国大选特朗普首次胜选后，我们发布了报告指出"祸水外引"的风险（2016年12月7日《祸水东 引》）。今年特朗普再次胜选，其政策主张进一步引发市场关注。特朗普主张"加关税、减税收"，通过对 外构筑贸易壁垒、对内减税的方式吸引制造业回流美国，并实现美国的再工业化。这些主张与他在上一任 期的政策保持一致。然而， 无论从美国外部环境还是内部情况来看，本轮都与上一轮有所 不同。 特朗普1.0版本所面临的内政外交空间相对宽裕。 2016年，特朗普意外赢得大选，意味着美国持续"金融 化"带来的贫富差距扩大正加剧内部矛盾。尽管如此，特朗普"财政刺激+贸易保护"的1.0版本可实施政策 空间仍较现在大：一是通胀和美国债务水平均偏低；二是地缘问题对美国内政外交和两党的影响没有现在 那么突出。 相比特朗普上一任期，从国际环境来看，当前，尽管美国仍被普遍认为是"超级大国"，但其国际影响力正 在减弱。 相比2016年，美国经济、工业、贸易等多维度指标在全球中的份额均出现下降。而在这个阶 段，新兴市场国家的实力不断增强，新兴经济体GDP全球占比明显提升，区域性的贸易协定也持续增多。 同时，包括俄乌冲突在内的地缘冲突指向尽 ...